Mike & Brent draw inspiration from the current Broadway run of Waiting for Godot starring Keanu Reeves and Alex Winter to suggest some first principals of risk-based export controls compliance to trade compliance teams. They discuss the futility of the oft-reported sentiment in the trade compliance press of wanting more or clearer guidance from the U.S. government about export controls risk management is not necessary, because the guidance is already here and the “high probability” standard offers a path forward (01:03); how the “high probability” standard and a return to anti-diversion first principles is a way to avoid a repeat of the compliance whipsaw effect occasioned by the announcement, then suspension, of the Affiliates Rule (a/k/a the 50% Rule) (03:47); how an example of this is focusing on your compliance and enforcement risks under General Prohibition 10 and the inchoate provisions of U.S. export controls (07:10); how neither the Affiliates Rule’s adoption nor its suspension changed GP10 or the other anti-diversion regulations under U.S. export controls (12:03); why efforts to comply with the Affiliates Rule were not wasted (14:23); how to deal with and overcome “compliance fatigue” in organizations (16:04); Brent’s latest NYU PCCE post (17:59); and why there was an over-focus on item-based classifications relative to knowledge-based end-use and end-user catch-all provisions and GP10 (19:17).

They then conclude with a righteous installment of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” (21:36).

“Waiting for Godot” starring Keanu Reeves and Alex Winter is currently playing at the Hudson Theater in New York City until January 4, 2026. For tickets: https://boxoffice.nyc.com/waiting-for-godot/13147/calendar/

Brent’s latest NYU Law School Program on Corporate Compliance & Enforcement post, from October 31, 2025: https://wp.nyu.edu/compliance_enforcement/2025/10/31/from-peanuts-to-elephant-sized-penalties-a-fresh-look-at-recent-u-s-export-controls-enforcement-developments-future-trends/

Brent’s email: [email protected]

Mike’s email: [email protected]