Dr Dark After Dark

Teddy is one of the new generation of Hedge Fund managers, having setup Pervalle Global in 2018. Pervalle is very much a macro fund ("macro is back, baby!"), investing across all asset classes, and it brings together a unique set of leading indicators into their investment process

As we all know, 2020 has been an 'interesting' year so far, certainly not one to be ever forgotten!

We dive into the the latest key dynamics across macro, ranging from US Election, COVID, inflation vs deflation, 2 y-axis charts (!), and much more

If you have any feedback please do DM me on Twitter (@Darky999) whether good/bad/ugly; several episodes have come from listener ideas & recommendations of guests

Super excited to have one of my most favourite macro analysts on the pod. Paul Hodges is a world-renowned expert on the Chemicals industry and Macro in general, and also the author of the pH Report. The Chemicals industry is the 3rd largest in the global economy and is interconnected with almost all physical products; the trends within it are one of the best leading macro indicators

We dive into the ticking demographic time bomb facing the world, and its many ramifications for people, business and governments. How COVID has changed most industries and now presents great opportunities for step changes in technology, and decentralisation - especially for budding entrepreneurs

The next 20 years will see far more new technology than the last 20 years as technology builds upon previous advances in an exponential manner, so it's healthy to not listen too much to people that say your latest 'crazy idea' is impossible!

As always, if you have any feedback good/bad/ugly please DM me on Twitter @Darky999

Jason Buck (@JasonMutiny) joins me for a wide-ranging discussions about the real 'vol' - volatility. Jason is one of the pre-eminent vol experts and has a great overview of the various strategies that can be deployed - as Mutiny is a fund-of-vol-funds

Going 'long vol' is talked about quite a lot, but there has been less focus on what a Retail Investor can practically do, so we talk about various specific long vol trades to give a flavour of what is possible; including a quick masterclass on 'The Greeks'

We also cover the VIX ETPs (VXX, VIXY) - how they can be used, and how people need to be very careful with them too, as well as Left tail vs Right positioning, some guidelines for assessing how to think about position sizing (spoiler: there is no silver bullet here!), and a new analogy on Coffee and Options :)

As always, please DM me on Twitter (@Darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly

Well-known Tesla bear, TESLAcharts (or TC), joins me to discuss his interview/podcast with the Founder & ex-Exec Chairman of Nikola Motor, Trevor Milton, and also a deep dive into SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies)

TC's podcast with Trevor Milton was a rare glimpse into the mind of the leader of a large public company - people like Trevor rarely go on the record in such detail. It received a lot of positive reviews, however also some criticism. No one could have know what would follow, with Trevor's resignation from Nikola soon after a damming report published by Hindenburg Research

We discuss the reasons for TC doing the interview, how he thinks it went, and address the criticisms he received too

Then we have a deep dive into SPACs, the incentives behind them, their pros & cons, and draw some analogies with Venture Capital and Private Equity

As always if you have any feedback whether good/bad/ugly, please DM me on Twitter @Darky999

This was a very different, and incredibly enjoyable conversation that really digs into what it takes to be an entrepreneur, emotions, how to hire, how to fail, how to understand that the journey is the destination, and ultimately why most people underestimate the impact of technology (very important for understanding the macro of tomorrow)

Jeff is a serial entrepreneur, a highly accomplished investor in tech startups (across many different industries), and he is the author of "The Price of Tomorrow - Why Deflation is Key to an Abundant Future"

The inflation vs deflation debate is highly topical, we discuss the incredibly strong forces that push towards deflation, most notable technology advancement, network effects and the ability to manipulate and learn from data (e.g. AI)

As always, please DM me on twitter (@darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly it's all welcome!

Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund) joins me to go 'Beyond the Milkshake' - and gives a masterclass in portfolio construction

Brent is well known for his Dollar Milkshake thesis that the USD will spike due to huge USD denominated debts across the world leading to a wave of defaults, and huge USD demand, but how can we go from a thesis to an actual portfolio? Also, is it possible to allocate in a manner that means if your thesis is ultimately wrong, you can still make money?

We dive into the nuances of portfolio construction, including timeframes, asset allocations, how to enter positions, profit taking strategies and much more

What does it take to realise a life-changing investment, i.e. 100x returns? How can we be ready for the mental challenges, the ridicule from friends & family for being 'crazy' and 'nuts', and the emotional ups and downs? Is the mindset required similar to being an entrepreneur?

Raoul Pal, CEO & Co-Founder Real Vision; Founder Global Macro Investor, is no stranger to this, as a serial entrepreneur and long time successful macro investor. We do a deep dive into the mental strength required to find, make, and ultimately realise life-changing returns. It's easy to say 'concentrate to accumulate, diversity to protect' however when should we concentrate a bet? What process should we follow to find it? How can we sleep at night (spoiler, have safety nets!) with so much on the line?

Whether an investment, or as an entrepreneur, you have to take risks in order to make life-changing returns, and whilst many podcasts and videos cover ideas for the next big thing, there has been less coverage of all the other aspects that need to be nailed in order to stay sane, actually realise the returns, and to not get wiped out if wrong (there is of course no guarantee you will be right).

As always, please DM me on twitter (@Darky999) with feedback whether good/bad/ugly, and for ideas for future episodes.

FedUpBizOwner (@HRGPFOREVER) returns for an episode dedicated to the Supreme Court & Election Politics. FedUp needs no introduction, his first episode on Mail In voting and Franchise Financing remains the most popular podcast in this series.

Today's episode has been eagerly anticipated so I hope it lives up to expectations! It was recorded at 8pm EST on Sunday 20th September

It's a doozie :)

Eric Basmajian, a Jedi Master of data, insights, and incredibly clear and well thought out logic joins me to discuss Inflation vs Deflation (deep dive here), how to think about constructing a portfolio (including ways of hedging), and how the upcoming US Election could affect markets, based upon various combinations of who controls what (POTUS, House, Senate).

Eric also gives his top tips for what non-obvious data to track (do you track Copper SCRAP prices, what about Plywood instead of Lumber?) in order to try to get a bit of a heads up for when the current reflationary impulse may turn back to the previous deflationary trend - whilst it's possible it doesn't, he leans towards a deflationary future in the medium term, especially in a US with no further stimulus (as politicians argue/procrastinate).

As always, please DM me on Twitter (@darky999) with any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly, and if you have ideas for future guests please also let me know.