Dr Dark After Dark

Volatility is back! Nothing too crazy yet, but when stocks are up, AND volatility is up, one has to take note and be more cautious - this was a couple of weeks ago, and we did see a correction in stocks, especially some of the mega cap tech stocks

In this episode we discuss the current market (as of Friday 11th Sept), volatility and ways to not trade it, as well as ways to trade it; and we dive into the latest insights from my quest to understand Reserves and hopefully answer the Inflation vs Deflation question (spoiler: it's not black and white...)

Emil is one of the most articulate free-thinkers in the macro/economics space. This conversation was a real treat for me. I never thought it would end up going 500+ years into the future when talking about potential reserve currencies - and it wasn't science fiction (maybe it becomes science fact!)

So not surprisingly this was a very wide ranging discussion, spanning the 'Silent Depression' we have had since 2008, politics and what size of shock is required for real change to occur, thru to next generation currencies, the effects of de-globalisation, and portfolio construction (for the 2020s)

Emil hosts the Making Sense, Eurodollar University series with Jeff Snider, so please do check out their YouTube / Podcasts, they make frequent and extremely high quality content, generally around the monetary system, and how it really works

We welcome Zach Abraham for a wide-ranging conversation about the economy, markets, and politics. We also talk about investing psychology, mistakes, how hard it is, but also when to double down and really put the pedal to the metal

Zach is the Principal and CIO of Bulwark Capital Management, a US-based money manager, mainly focused on Retail clients, with $130m AuM. He weathered the 2007/08 GFC well, and has built the company to be disciplined, yet agile

To listen to Zach every week, subscribe to the Know Your Risk Radio Podcast - this is how I discovered Zach about a year ago

If you have any feedback, please DM me on Twitter, whether good/bad/ugly it's much appreciated!

Professor Danny Blanchflower (@D_Blanchflower) joins me to discuss the state of the global economy; we touch on many areas including how Central Banks are seemingly incapable of forecasting recessions, and how 'group think' within Economists (and Academics in general) has become so persuasive, that dissenting voices are not wanted...

Danny dissented on 18 of the 36 Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes he was involved in from 2006-09, and 13 of these 18 he was the sole dissenter. Phone calls from the Prime Minister of the UK followed, where the PM backed Danny up and told him he was right, and how can they get the rest of the MPC understand this?

We also look to the future - what can be done by Politicians and Central Bankers to lay the foundations for future growth, with ideas including large investments in education & infrastructure - after all, if the US Treasury can borrow in-effect near unlimited money, then why is it not investing in the future?

This was a really fun conversation and at times it gets more technical (google 'NAIRU' if you are unsure what it is!), as always, please DM me on twitter (@Darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly, and also if you have ideas for future episodes

This market is not just hard, it's really hard. Everyone is making mistakes, anyone that says they are not are either lying or deluded. No one can trade this type of market perfectly. Having said this, it's a great market for macro, and with appropriate risk management it's a market that can be lucrative, with relatively low volatility

This is a follow up to '#14 It's Hard!' episode, and covers all the major tradable asset classes (Equities, Bonds, Precious Metals, Bitcoin, Commodities)

Recorded on Friday 14 August, as always, please DM @darky999 on Twitter if you have any feedback (good, bad or ugly!), or ideas for future episodes

In the third episode of the 'At the Coal Face' series, Stirling Cox joins me to discuss how COVID has impacted SMBs in the US.

Stirling is the owner of a Call Center in Atlanta, and was previously the President of AlphaSights US. We discuss how the various Government programs have affected his business, and the ramifications for the US economy. We also touch on topics like UBI, and entrepreneurship.

Stirling is a fantastic business operator, and a gentleman - I have known him for over 15 years since we worked together at Bain & Co in London.

Anth (@anthemos) is a long-time friend, and great entrepreneur, he is the Founder/CEO of Zumper and has grown it over the last 8 years into the largest private rental marketplace in the US & Canada with 80m+ users, with $150m of Venture funding raised too

We discuss real estate and the impact of COVID (with lots of interesting data), politics & stimulus, entrepreneurship (especially learnings/mistakes), and future impacts of COVID to the global economy as a whole (who are the winners and losers)

This is the second episode of the 'At the Coal Face' series where I talk with leaders who are at the frontlines of the real economy

Franchises contribute about $1 Trillion to the US economy each year, we dive into the state of the Franchise Financing industry with @FedUpBizOwner, an anonymous twitter account who has 15+ years experience dealing with the credit side of franchises

We cover an overview of the industry, the various ways different sized franchisees get credit in a pre-COVID world, and then what is happening right now, with real life 'coal face' anecdotes from just yesterday

We also initially touch on the upcoming US Election, and the current Stimulus impasse, something @FedUpBizOwner was predicting would happen over 2 months ago

This is Part 1 of a mini-series called 'At the Coal Face', with CEOs/Founders, who will give their unique and interesting insights into what they are seeing on the frontlines of their business

Andreas is the Global Chief FX & Rates Strategist at Nordea, he joins me this week for a wide ranging discussion covering GDP data (in real time!), 'V-shape' or not, and a whistle stop tour around all the major asset classes

We cover everything from the all important USD, the recent major moves in gold & silver, agricultural commodities, equities globally, US duration bonds, and bitcoin

Andreas is extremely active on twitter, and is well worth a follow @AndreasSteno; as always if you have feedback about this episode please DM me on twitter

Dr Barton Wang is an academic, a trader, and a polymath. We cover his approach to trading options, the Treasury General Account (TGA), Central Banks & Blockchain, progress with COVID19 vaccines, and lastly AI, Big Data and Quantum Computing

I learned a lot during this episode, especially about the nuances to the TGA mechanics, and also what I thought were sound reasons to believe a Vaccine may come sooner than many think (it just won't be available to everyone at first)

To follow Barton's latest thoughts, just go to @Barton_options on Twitter