In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Knapp and Danielle Hammett discuss the state of the housing market as of May 2024. Danielle opens by noting the end of May and the imminent release May's Central Texas Housing Report. Dr. Knapp highlights the significant impact of mortgage rates on the national housing market, noting their fluctuation between the high six and low seven percent range, which has affected affordability and reduced buyers' purchasing power. Despite declines in median sales prices over the past two years, high mortgage rates have not offset the decline in affordability.

Dr. Knapp elaborates on local factors affecting the Austin housing market, such as the lingering effects of the pandemic surge in home sales and prices. She explains that the market is experiencing a natural reduction in activity as fewer people are buying and moving, compounded by high job growth post-pandemic, which has since slowed. This has resulted in a period of slower growth in both the housing and labor markets.

The discussion shifts to May's market data, showing a 13% year-over-year decline in closed sales and a 37% increase in active listings, indicating more sellers are entering the market. This suggests a cautious approach among buyers who are taking more time to select homes due to the increased inventory. Dr. Knapp advises real estate agents to contextualize these trends for their clients and emphasizes the importance of expert guidance in navigating the current market. The podcast concludes with announcements of upcoming events, including the June 26 Market Shift Conversations event and a Market Data Lab session on June 18 to further discuss market trends and statistics.

Download a transcript of this episode: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/06/DIH-6-11-24.pdf

Links Mentioned

Market Data Lab w/ Dr. Knapp | June 18 https://www.abor.com/class/market-data-lab-5

Market Shift Conversations: Buyer’s Representation | June 26 https://www.abor.com/event-type/market-shift-conversations

Central Texas Housing Report | Coming this week https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Emily Chenevert focus on the newly launched Right Here, Right Now campaign and the suite of resources launched on the new hub. Emily discusses the campaign's intent to assist with navigating the recent NAR settlement changes and MLS rules. They emphasize the importance of a buyer's agent portfolio, to be introduced at the Market Shift Conversations on June 26, which will include small research reports aimed at enhancing the value of buyer's agents to clients.

Dr. Clare Knapp shares insights from the 2023 NAR Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report, noting that 86% of buyers in 2023 used a REALTOR® to purchase their homes, highlighting the significant role of agents. They discuss the timing of signing buyer's representative agreements, with nearly 50% of buyers signing these at different stages of their home-buying process. This supports the new requirement for written agreements before home tours, which protects both agents and consumers.

Emily and Dr. Losey further delve into the value buyers find in REALTORS®, such as helping to identify suitable properties, negotiating sales, and recommending service providers. They note that most buyers find their agents through word of mouth, emphasizing the importance of reputation, reliability, and expertise. The discussion concludes with a preview of May’s housing statistics, indicating a slight decrease in closed sales and stable median sales 

Download a transcript of this episode: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/06/DIH-6-204-24.pdf

Links Mentioned

Right Here, Right Now Research Hub: https://www.abor.com/rightnow

Market Shift Conversations – June 26: https://www.abor.com/event-type/market-shift-conversations

NAR Research & Statistics: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report: https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2023-home-buyers-and-sellers-generational-trends-report-03-28-2023.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, ABoR & Unlock MLS CEO Emily Chenevert and Housing Economist Dr. Clare Knapp discuss the Austin labor market, focusing on recent tech layoffs and their implications for the local economy and housing market. Dr. Knapp explains that while the tech sector in Austin is significant, it does not dominate the economy as much as it used to. The layoffs, primarily driven by interest rate sensitivity, have now started affecting white-collar sectors, including tech jobs in research and development. Despite the tech layoffs, the overall impact on the Austin economy is mitigated by its diversified job market. The housing market is expected to experience a slight decline in sales but remains relatively stable due to this diversification.

They also highlight recent policy changes aimed at addressing housing affordability in Austin, specifically the HOME Phase Two initiative. This policy, supported by ABoR, aims to reduce the minimum lot size for new homes, which could significantly lower the cost of new housing and increase the supply of homes over time. Dr. Knapp emphasizes the long-term benefits of this initiative for affordability, predicting notable price reductions for new homes. The episode concludes with a review of housing statistics for May thus far and some of the numbers you can expect to see in the next Central Texas Housing Report coming early June.

Download a transcript of this episode: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/05/DIH-5-29-24-1.pdf

Links Mentioned:

HOME Phase Two Initiative: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/05/ABoR-Advocacy-Win-May-2024-Housing-Reforms.pdf

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, ABoR & Unlock MLS CMO Kelea Youngblood and Housing Economist Dr. Clare Knapp discuss recent economic indicators and their implications for mortgage rates. They begin by examining the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, highlighting a 3.4% year-over-year increase in headline inflation and a 3.6% rise in the core CPI. Dr. Knapp notes that while these figures met expectations, the slightly lower-than-expected month-over-month headline inflation led to a favorable market reaction, with treasury yields falling and stocks rallying. The discussion emphasizes the significance of these numbers, noting the lowest core inflation reading since April 2021, suggesting a positive trend.

The conversation then shifts to the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions on interest rates. Dr. Knapp predicts that the Fed is likely to hold rates steady in June, with a potential rate cut in September. This forecast is based on recent statements from Fed Chair Powell and the current economic data. They also discuss the implications for mortgage rates, noting a recent decline from 7.22% to just over 7%. Dr. Knapp suggests that mortgage rates are expected to gradually decline over the latter half of 2024, especially following the anticipated rate cut in September, potentially making it a favorable time for homebuyers.

The podcast ends by covering new home construction statistics and ongoing research at ABoR. Dr. Knapp shares insights from ABoR's Buy vs. Rent Index, which shows that homeownership tends to be more financially favorable than renting and investing in the stock market, especially over longer periods. They discuss the current affordability trends in new home construction, noting a significant decrease in homes priced under $300,000, but a corresponding increase in those priced between $300,000 and $600,000.

Download a transcript of this episode: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/05/DIH-5-21-24-1.pdf

Links Mentioned:

Broker & Sales Manager Meeting May 30: https://www.abor.com/event/broker-sales-manager-forum-2

Consumer Price Index (CPI):

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

ABoR Research: https://www.abor.com/research

Buy Vs. Rent Index: https://www.abor.com/buyrentindex

ABoR Benefits: https://www.abor.com/benefits

Listen On:

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving at Home, Housing Economist Dr. Clare Knapp and CMO Kelea Youngblood discuss significant trends in the Austin real estate market, particularly noting the increase in housing listings and sales in April. They highlight a substantial 26% year-over-year increase in new listings and a 6% increase in closed sales, with a notable rise in listings in areas outside the central Austin region, such as Cedar Park and Hutto.

The discussion emphasizes the accessibility of more affordable housing, with a significant 51% increase in closed sales for homes priced under $300,000, indicating a healthy market for first-time buyers. Conversely, luxury homes priced over $1 million also showed strong market activity, with a 39% uptick in new listings and a 30% increase in closed sales, suggesting less sensitivity to interest rate changes among luxury buyers.

They also touched on broader market dynamics, such as sellers becoming more flexible in negotiations, possibly influenced by persistently high mortgage rates. They noted a general increase in market activity, with more first-time home buyers this spring compared to previous years. 

Links:

2024 Central Texas Housing Report https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Data Market Lab | May 21 https://www.abor.com/class/market-data-lab-4

Download a transcript of this episode https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/05/DIH-5-14-24.pdf

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC  

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey  

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, CMO Kelea Youngblood and Housing Economist Dr. Clare Knapp discuss the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain steady rates and its implications for mortgage rates. While no immediate changes are expected, there's anticipation for a potential rate cut in late 2024, which could positively impact mortgage rates. Despite modest decreases in the 10-year treasury yield, mortgage rates are expected to hover around 7%, offering some relief to both buyers and sellers.

Moving on to buyer financing trends, conventional loans dominate, with a slight increase in FHA and VA loans over recent years. The availability of various financing options, including FHA and VA loans, provides more flexibility for buyers and encourages sellers to consider a wider range of offers. Financing preferences also vary based on price cohorts, with cash buyers more prevalent in luxury and lower-priced homes.

Lastly, the discussion touches on average days on the market, highlighting shorter durations for closed leases compared to closed sales, especially in higher-priced segments. This trend reflects increased demand for rentals, particularly in single-family homes, supporting those who may face challenges in purchasing due to affordability constraints or limited inventory. The episode ends with a teaser for next week's deep dive into April's housing statistics and promotes upcoming events in the real estate market.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC  

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/03/DIH-3-26-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey  

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving at Home, ABoR & Unlock MLS Housing Economist Dr. Clare Knapp (formerly Dr. Clare Losey!) and ABoR & Unlock MLS CMO Kelea Youngblood delve into the March employment statistics for Austin, noting a slowdown in the labor market since mid-2023. With job growth now around 2.4%, down from previous levels of 3-5%, the discussion attributes this to both market normalization and the impact of increased borrowing costs and inflation. Despite the dip, attention is drawn to sectors such as mining, logging, construction, education, health services, and other services, which continue to exhibit growth, albeit at a slower pace.

The conversation shifts to the implications of higher mortgage rates, highlighting the shift towards the rental market, particularly for first-time buyers who are priced out of homeownership due to elevated borrowing costs. Dr. Knapp emphasizes the significance of the for-rent market for households earning less than $110,000 per year, illustrating a notable preference for rentals over purchases in the current economic landscape. This trend underscores the challenges faced by aspiring homeowners and the importance of monitoring market dynamics.

Looking ahead, Dr. Knapp provides insights into the upcoming April market statistics, projecting steady trends in closed sales and a modest increase in median sales prices, mirroring patterns observed in previous months. The discussion concludes with anticipation for the 2023 Industry Awards Fire and Ice Gala on May 10 and a reminder to stay tuned for the next market stats release. 

2023 Industry Awards Fire & Ice Gala - May 10 - https://www.abor.com/celebrate

March Housing Market Report Coming Soon! https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC  

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/03/DIH-3-26-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Knapp on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey  

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

On this episode of Driving It Home Dr. Clare Losey and ABoR Deputy Director of Communications Danielle Hammett discuss the recent economic research on the impact of minimum lot size on housing affordability and the total cost of home ownership. The discussion revolves around a proposed change in Austin's minimum lot size from 5,750 square feet to 2,500 square feet. Dr. Losey explains that reducing the minimum lot size could lead to more affordable housing because it allows more homes to be built on subdivided lots, potentially reducing the cost of home ownership by decreasing the size of the land required.

Dr. Losey points out that holding other factors constant, reducing the minimum lot size can lead to lower home prices and increased housing supply. Specifically, if the lot size is reduced to 2,500 square feet, it could cause a 10% to 25% decline in the price of a new home. The research suggests that subdividing larger lots could generate up to 436 additional homes annually in Austin, significantly impacting the city's housing supply. While this might not be immediately apparent, the long-term effects are crucial, as it can take years for the changes to materialize due to permitting processes and construction timelines.

The episode concludes with a discussion about how this research might affect real estate businesses and potential home buyers. The hosts emphasize the importance of addressing affordability, especially in a rapidly growing city like Austin. They encourage listeners to share the research with their clients, suggesting that these changes could have significant implications for housing affordability and accessibility in the city.

New Research Report: The Impact of Minimum Lot Sizes on Housing Affordability https://www.abor.com/research

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC  

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/03/DIH-3-26-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey  

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and ABoR Deputy Director of Communications Danielle Hammett focus on analyzing the March Housing Market Report. Despite sustained elevated mortgage rates, home sales and median sales prices have remained relatively flat. There's a noticeable division in the market, with increased activity seen in both the lowest-priced homes (under $300,000) and the highest-priced homes (at least $1,000,000), while homes in the mid-price range ($400,000 to $750,000) have experienced a significant pullback in closed sales.

The market presents more opportunities for first-time buyers seeking affordable options, with a significant uptick in new listings for homes under $300,000. This trend is particularly evident in cities like Buda, Hutto, Kyle, Manor, and Taylor, where sales have increased year-over-year. Meanwhile, luxury buyers are driving sales in higher-priced segments, particularly in areas like Austin.

Looking ahead, the housing market is expected to maintain stability, with mortgage rates likely to remain elevated, providing certainty for both buyers and sellers. Despite the challenges posed by these conditions, the market is perceived to be less volatile, offering a more stable environment for buyers and sellers alike. The podcast ends with a preview of next week's episode, which will delve into new research on the impact of minimum lot sizes on housing affordability.

New Research Report: The Impact of Minimum Lot Sizes on Housing Affordability https://www.abor.com/research

March 2024 Market Statistics https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Tickets for the 2023 ABoR Industry Awards Fire & Ice Gala https://www.abor.com/celebrate

Free ABJ Subscription: https://www.abor.com/ABJ

Meet the Industry Awards Finalists https://www.abor.com/awards

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC  

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/03/DIH-3-26-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey  

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Kelea Youngblood discuss a significant increase in new and back-on-market listings. Dr. Losey notes a 43% week-over-week increase in new listings in the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), with the city of Austin experiencing a 63% increase, especially among homes priced between $400,000 to just under $700,000 and those over a million dollars. This bifurcation in the market offers more opportunities for first-time and luxury buyers during the spring season. She also points out that back-on-market listings make up 22% of the increase, indicating these are genuinely new to the market.

The conversation transitions to the topic of population growth's impact on the housing market, highlighting the Austin region's status as one of the fastest-growing in the U.S. Population growth rates are about 4% in individual counties but slightly over 2% for the entire MSA, with Travis County only seeing a 0.6% increase. This difference is attributed to limited land available for development in Travis County, pointing to the potential for the suburbs to absorb more population growth. Dr. Losey emphasizes the necessity for more affordable housing in Austin to accommodate a diverse income spectrum, with redevelopment in Travis County being a key focus.

The final topics covered include first-quarter sales for 2024 and month-to-date sales comparisons. Williamson and Hays Counties lead in sales, driven by affordability for first-time buyers. The hosts also mention a considerable surge in active listings, both for sale and lease, compared to the previous year, which could indicate a healthier inventory for the market. The podcast concludes with a reminder about the upcoming Market Conversations event on April 16, focusing on missing middle housing and affordability, and a heads-up about the release of March housing stats in the following week's episode.

Links Mentioned:

Market Shift Conversations on April 16 https://www.abor.com/event-type/market-shift-conversations

March 2024 Market Statistics COMING SOON https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Tickets for the 2023 ABoR Industry Awards Fire & Ice Gala https://www.abor.com/celebrate

Meet the Industry Awards Finalists https://www.abor.com/awards

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC  

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/03/DIH-3-26-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey  

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].