In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Emily Chenevert focus in on preliminary data for March. Dr. Losey anticipates a slight year-over-year increase in sales and a noticeable rise in active and new listings, although not as significant as February's 45% year-over-year uptick. There is caution advised regarding predicting an increase in the median sales price due to price stickiness, particularly as the majority of new listings have been in more affordable price ranges, potentially shifting sales towards first-time and more budget-conscious buyers.

How will these indicators affect the upcoming peak selling season? Dr. Losey predicts a continuation of the trends seen in March, with sales nominally higher than the previous year and median sales prices remaining stable, largely due to the concentration of new listings in the affordable price range. She notes that this would create better opportunities for first-time buyers, highlighting the shift in the market from the same time last year when buyers were hesitant due to higher mortgage rates.

Furthermore, Dr. Losey shares insights into the long-term wealth-building potential of homeownership. She illustrates that even with a modest annual appreciation rate of 4%, a homeowner can accumulate significant equity, citing an example of over $70,000 in equity within three years on a $350,000 home. This conversation underscores the benefits of homeownership and the current market dynamics, offering an optimistic outlook for the spring selling season. 

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC  

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/04/DIH-4-2-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey  

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving at Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Danielle Hammett discuss leasing data, federal interest rates, and trends in pending sales. Dr. Losey starts the podcast by noting an uptick in pending leases, especially in the most affordable rent range corresponding to homes under $300,000. She emphasizes that the rental market continues to meet the homeownership needs that are unmet in the market, particularly in Austin. With the majority of pending leases being in the more affordable bracket, this trend reflects the reality that homeownership is becoming less accessible for first-time buyers due to high costs.

The Federal Reserve's decision not to change interest rates signals a status quo that the market anticipated, suggesting possible rate cuts later in the year. Dr. Losey advises caution, interpreting data revisions to mean there may only be two rate cuts this year. Stability in mortgage rates provides some predictability in the market, which could lead to a stronger spring home buying season than the previous year.

They continue by discussing how pending sales are an indicator of future market activity, with a notable 21% increase in the first half of March year-over-year. This surge, especially in areas like Caldwell and Hays County, suggests an active spring season. They conclude with insights on first-time homebuyers, highlighting demographic trends and the ongoing challenge of affordability, and encourage real estate professionals to leverage this data in their client interactions and strategies.

Links Mentioned:

ABoR Research/Buy Vs. Rent Index https://www.abor.com/research

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC  

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/03/DIH-3-26-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey  

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, ABoR and Unlock MLS CMO Kelea Youngblood joins Dr. Clare Losey to discuss the latest labor market statistics for the Austin area and analyzes the link between job growth and the housing market, specifically median sales prices and closed leases.

Dr. Losey highlights that Austin's job growth is surpassing national and Texas rates, though it has slowed compared to previous years, which may allow for earlier interest rate cuts by the Fed. Austin maintains a lower unemployment rate compared to the national average. She details job growth in specific cities within the Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) since 2010, with significant growth in cities like Hutto, Georgetown, and especially Leander, which saw a 224% increase in job growth. However, Dr. Losey notes that there isn't a strong correlation between job growth in individual cities and changes in median sales prices, but there is a notable correlation with the increase in closed leases, particularly in cities further from downtown Austin that offer more affordable housing.

Toward the end of the podcast, they discuss the implications of these statistics for real estate professionals. There has been a substantial increase in new listings and a modest increase in closed sales, with notable growth in the affordable and luxury home segments. This indicates a busy spring selling season, especially for first-time and entry-level homebuyers. They encourage real estate agents to be proactive in their client outreach. 

Links Mentioned: February 2024 Central Texas Market Report - https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics  

FREE ABJ Subscription - https://www.abor.com/abj

2023 ABoR Industry Awards Fire & Ice Gala - May 10, Tickets on sale NOW! https://www.abor.com/celebrate

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC  

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/03/DIH-3-19-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey  

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this podcast episode, Emily Chenevert and Dr. Clare Losey discuss the real estate market in Austin during the spring break period, a busy time for the city due to events like South By. Dr. Losey remarks on the market's performance in February, noting that sales and median sales prices remained relatively flat, with only a modest increase of about 1%. Despite fluctuating mortgage rates throughout the month, there were no significant surprises in the housing market's activity.

Dr. Losey highlights a positive trend of sellers pricing their homes more accurately, with the price ratio close to the original list now around 95%. She also points out a slight decrease in months of inventory, suggesting a need for more housing supply, particularly in more affordable brackets. Emily chimes in, interpreting the close to list price metric as an indicator of market stabilization, which is helpful for real estate agents in instilling confidence in their clients.

Lastly, the significant increase in new listings, particularly in more affordable price ranges under $300,000, is discussed. This is seen as great news for first-time buyers and those earning under $100,000, meeting a critical need in the Austin market. Dr. Losey emphasizes that Williamson County, in particular, is benefiting from this trend due to job growth and business relocations. Pending listings are down, which they attribute to rising mortgage rates, but they don't put much stock in this metric due to its volatility. The conversation concludes with both expressing optimism for the real estate market and anticipating the data release later in the week.

Links Mentioned: February 2024 Central Texas Market Report Coming March 13 - https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics 

Market Data Lab with Dr. Clare Losey - March 19 - https://www.abor.com/class/market-data-lab-2

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC 

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/03/DIH-3-12-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Emily Chenevert discuss the real estate market outlook for the upcoming spring season. Dr. Losey predicts a steady market similar to last year, with sales and home prices expected to fluctuate minimally, around a 5 percent difference either up or down. She emphasizes the role of slightly elevated mortgage rates, which are anticipated to stay in the mid to high 6 percent range, and the rate lock-in effect deterring homeowners from selling due to previously secured lower rates. Despite a 15-month decline in home prices, affordability remains a concern, compounded by a low inventory of affordable homes, which challenges first-time buyers.

Dr. Losey reflects on the current market's adjustment phase post-COVID, aiming for normalization of activity levels. Last spring's mortgage rates, slightly lower than this year's, led to expectations of a stable market, with sales and median prices showing minor variances. The conversation touches on the reintroduction of seasonal market patterns, affected by COVID, and anticipates a cautious stabilization depending on Federal Reserve actions. The ongoing adjustment aims for a new market equilibrium, addressing uncertainties, especially regarding mortgage rates.

They discuss practical aspects for agents and sellers in navigating the spring market with better pricing strategies, considering the mortgage rate landscape. Dr. Losey shares insights on the February market stats, noting stable closed sales, an increase in inventory, and a rise in leasing as an alternative to homeownership due to inventory shortages. The episode concludes with Dr. Losey inviting members to a market data lab for deeper discussions, highlighting the importance of adapting strategies based on evolving market dynamics and geographic specifics.

Links Mentioned:

February 2024 Central Texas Market Report - https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Market Data Lab with Dr. Clare Losey - March 19 - https://www.abor.com/class/market-data-lab-2

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/03/DIH-3-5-2024.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Emily Chenevert discuss construction costs and their impact on the housing market. Dr. Losey notes that single-family construction costs have stabilized on a year-over-year basis, with construction labor costs flat and material costs up by about 3%. This is a significant slowdown from the spikes seen during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stabilization suggests that builders may not pass on higher costs to consumers as previously, which could alleviate upward pressure on new home prices.

Supply chain constraints, which were a significant issue during the peak of the pandemic, have largely diminished as recovery continues and countries reopen. However, there remains a shortage of construction labor, which continues to impact the housing industry. Dr. Losey emphasizes the importance of investing in training and education to address this shortage. She also points out that despite the year-over-year stabilization, construction costs are still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

The local Austin market is experiencing steady activity, with a slight uptick in mortgage rates to 6.9% and steady month-to-date transactions compared to the previous year. There are more active and new listings in the market, reflecting a slight increase in inventory. The leasing market also shows an increase in closed leases and active listings, which may be influenced by the influx of rental inventory from institutional investors during the pandemic. Dr. Losey suggests that the housing market is showing strength and balance, providing opportunities for both buyers and sellers, despite potential adjustments to the higher rate environment.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH_caxJ3VPq5iExWilqZOahnREgSFgqC

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/02/DIH-2-27-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Danielle Hammett discuss the Central Texas economy and housing market, focusing on January 2024 numbers. Sales increased by 4% year over year, driven by a decline in mortgage rates in the previous months. Despite a 4% decrease in the median sales price, the total sales dollar volume remained relatively unchanged. New listings also increased, indicating sellers' response to the improved market conditions. However, the months of inventory remained below healthy levels, suggesting ongoing high demand for homes. 

Dr. Losey also delves into the impact of rising inflation, with a 3.1% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. While inflation is still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the figures exceeded expectations, leading to an increase in the 10-year treasury yield. This suggests a potential delay in rate cuts, keeping mortgage rates higher for a longer period. 

The podcast concludes with a mention of upcoming reports to watch, including January jobs data, the producer price index, and indicators of construction activity, all crucial factors for understanding the evolving housing market. They end the episode highlighting positive trends in Central Texas housing, such as increased sales and new listings, but also address challenges like rising inflation and its potential impact on mortgage rates. 

Links mentioned in this episode: January 2024 Market Statistics - https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics 

Upcoming Market Data Labs w/ Dr. Losey - https://www.abor.com/take-a-class 

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/02/DIH-2-21-24.pdf 

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Danielle Hammett discuss the Central Texas economy and housing market, focusing on January 2024 numbers. Sales increased by 4% year over year, driven by a decline in mortgage rates in the previous months. Despite a 4% decrease in the median sales price, the total sales dollar volume remained relatively unchanged. New listings also increased, indicating sellers' response to the improved market conditions. However, the months of inventory remained below healthy levels, suggesting ongoing high demand for homes.

Dr. Losey also delves into the impact of rising inflation, with a 3.1% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. While inflation is still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, the figures exceeded expectations, leading to an increase in the 10-year treasury yield. This suggests a potential delay in rate cuts, keeping mortgage rates higher for a longer period. 

The podcast concludes with a mention of upcoming reports to watch, including January jobs data, the producer price index, and indicators of construction activity, all crucial factors for understanding the evolving housing market.They end the episode highlighting positive trends in Central Texas housing, such as increased sales and new listings, but also address challenges like rising inflation and its potential impact on mortgage rates.

Links mentioned in this episode: 

January 2024 Market Statistics - https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics 

Upcoming Market Data Labs w/ Dr. Losey - https://www.abor.com/take-a-class 

Find Upcoming Events & Education - https://www.abor.com/calendar

Clare's Economic & Housing Forecast from Annual Meeting - https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/01/Annual-Meeting-0131.pdf 

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/02/DIH-2-14-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials 

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey 

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving at Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Emily Chenevert discuss Chair Powell's comments on inflation and the uncertainty of the economic path forward. Markets showed a cautious response, with stock market dips and fluctuations in the 10-year treasury yield. Dr. Losey discusses the possibility of a rate cut–potentially happening in May or June.

The conversation moves to the strong jobs report which surpassed expectations, suggesting a robust labor market. This robustness is a double-edged sword; while it indicates economic resilience, it also makes it harder for inflation to soften as the Fed would like. The impact on the real estate market is significant, with Dr. Losey advising real estate professionals to remain steady-handed, as significant shifts in interest rates are unlikely to come quickly.

Lastly, the focus turns to Austin's housing market, highlighting its rapid population growth and the need for continued infrastructure and housing development to keep pace with the projected population increase. Policies like the Home Initiative and the recent passage of phase one, which allows up to three units on a lot within the City of Austin, are discussed as critical for managing growth. Dr. Losey points out Austin's relative affordability compared to the East and West Coasts but notes it is losing this advantage to other Texas cities. The episode concludes with a review of current real estate market data showing momentum in listings and closed sales and a discussion on mortgage rates, which have remained relatively unchanged, suggesting market acclimatization.

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@AustinBoardofREALTORS/podcasts 

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

*Don't forget* to access your *FREE* Austin Business Journal subscription! Tap into this benefit exclusive for ABoR members and use it as a resource for lead generation and market insights. 

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/01/DIH-1-30-24.pdf

Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and ABoR & Unlock MLS CMO Kelea Youngblood discuss the state of inflation and interest rates. Dr. Losey explains that while inflation has slowed since peaking in 2022, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current rates in the near term. There might be a rate cut as soon as March or more likely in May, depending on ongoing inflation data and labor market performance. The aim is to be cautious and prevent a resurgence of inflation.

The conversation shifts to housing affordability, particularly for renters in Texas. Dr. Losey reflects on a report by Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies which indicates that over half of Texas renters are cost-burdened, spending more than 30% of their income on rent and utilities. This statistic highlights the difficulties lower-income households face in transitioning to homeownership, given the barriers such as saving for down payments and unfavorable debt-to-income ratios.

Lastly, they cover housing market statistics, with a focus on comparing year-over-year data for January. Dr. Losey notes that sales activity is similar to the previous year, with a slight increase in inventory. Leasing, however, has seen a significant rise in active listings, attributed to the high mortgage rate environment which has potential buyers waiting on the sidelines. The episode concludes with a reminder about the upcoming ABoR & Unlock Annual Meeting tomorrow, January 31. 

*Links mentioned in this episode:* January 31 Annual Meeting

https://www.abor.com/event/annual-meeting-virtual-attendance-3

December 2023 Housing Market Report

https://www.abor.com/marketstatistics

Buy Vs. Rent Index

https://www.abor.com/document/buy-vs-rent-index

Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/americas-rental-housing-2024

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@AustinBoardofREALTORS/podcasts

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732

*Don't forget* to access your *FREE* Austin Business Journal subscription! Tap into this benefit exclusive for ABoR members and use it as a resource for lead generation and market insights.

Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2024/01/DIH-1-30-24.pdfConnect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials

Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey

Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].