El Podcast

E161: From Rome to Right Now: What History Gets Wrong About Collapse - Dr. Luke Kemp


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Dr. Luke Kemp, an Existential Risk Researcher at the University of Cambridge shows how today’s plutocracy and tech-fueled surveillance imperil society—and what we can do to build resilience.

Guest bio:
Dr. Luke Kemp is an Existential Risk Researcher at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge and author of Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse. His work examines how wealth concentration, surveillance, and arms races erode democracy and heighten global catastrophic risk.

Topics discussed:

  • The “Goliath” concept: dominance hierarchies vs. vague “civilization”
  • Are we collapsing now? Signals vs. sudden shocks
  • Inequality as the engine of fragility; lootable resources & data
  • Tech’s role: AI as accelerant, surveillance capitalism, autonomous weapons
  • Nuclear risk, climate links, and system-level causes of catastrophe
  • Democracy’s erosion and alternatives (sortition, deliberation)
  • Elite overproduction, factionalism, and arms/resource/status “races”
  • Collapse as leveler: winners, losers, and myths about mass die-off
  • Practical pathways: leveling power, wealth taxes, open democracy

Main points:

  • “Civilization” consistently manifests as stacked dominance hierarchies—what Kemp calls the Goliath—which naturally concentrate wealth and power over time.
  • Rising inequality spills into political, informational, and coercive power, making societies brittle and less able to correct course.
  • Existential threats are interconnected; AI, nukes, climate, and bio risks share causes and amplify each other.
  • AI need not be Skynet to be dangerous; it speeds arms races, surveillance, and catastrophic decision cycles.
  • Collapse isn’t always apocalypse; often it fragments power and improves life for many outside the elite core.
  • Durable safety requires leveling power: progressive/wealth taxation, stronger democracy (especially sortition-based, deliberative bodies), and curbing surveillance and arms races.

Top 3 quotes:

  • “Most collapse theories trace back to one driver: the steady concentration of wealth and power that makes societies top-heavy and blind.”
  • “AI is an accelerant—pouring fuel on the fires of arms races, surveillance, and extractive economics.”
  • “If we want a long future, we don’t just need tech fixes—we need to level power and make democracy real.”

🎙 The Pod is hosted by Jesse Wright
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