EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

Summary

Task: Make an interesting and informative Fermi estimate
Prize: $300 for the top entry
Deadline: February 16th, 2025
Results Announcement: By March 1st, 2025
Judges: Claude 3.5 Sonnet, the QURI team

Motivation

LLMs have recently made it significantly easier to make Fermi estimates. You can chat with most LLMs directly, or you can use custom tools like Squiggle AI. And yet, overall, few people have taken much advantage of this. Today we’re launching a competition to encourage exploration.

What We’re Looking For

Our goal is to discover creative ways to use AI for Fermi estimation. We're more excited about novel approaches than exhaustively researched calculations. Rather than spending hours gathering statistics or building complex spreadsheets, we encourage you to:

• Let AI do most of the heavy lifting
• Try unconventional estimation techniques
• Experiment with multiple approaches to find surprising insights

The ideal submission might be as simple as [...]

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Outline:

(00:04) Summary

(00:31) Motivation

(00:54) What We're Looking For

(01:37) Task

(02:21) Submission Format

(02:57) Examples

(03:10) Important Notes

(03:55) Support and Feedback

(04:11) Appendix: Evaluation Rubric and Prompts

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First published:

February 3rd, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Zc5jki9nXihueDcKj/usd300-fermi-model-competition

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post.

This piece, from @Garrison, @Lauren Gilbert and @tomwein, is really great quick summary of the US foreign aid pause, focused on PEPFAR (the US funded AIDs reduction effort).

The most affecting aspect of the piece, for me, was the prognoses for people who would no longer receive drugs from the programme:

Perhaps those in the most immediate danger are the children of HIV-positive mothers. PEPFAR currently supports around 680,000 pregnant women with ARV treatment—without access to these drugs, some 20-40 percent of them will transmit HIV to their babies. Without ARV treatment, about half of those infants will die within their first two years of life, most within the first few months. We could very well return to the world of the mid-2000s, where AIDS is once again a death sentence for a large percentage of those infected with HIV.

Nor would the [...]

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First published:

February 6th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2f8GXF4Jv6W6jaGff/the-most-shareable-pepfar-piece-i-ve-seen

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Crossposted from my blog which many people are saying you should check out!

Imagine that you came across an injured deer on the road. She was in immense pain, perhaps having been mauled by a bear or seriously injured in some other way. Two things are obvious:

1. If you could greatly help her at small cost, you should do so.
2. Her suffering is bad.

In such a case, it would be callous to say that the deer's suffering doesn’t matter because it's natural. Things can both be natural and bad—malaria certainly is. Crucially, I think in this case we’d see something deeply wrong with a person who thinks that it's not their problem in any way, that helping the deer is of no value. Intuitively, we recognize that wild animals matter!

But if we recognize that wild animals matter, then we have a problem. Because the [...]

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

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First published:

February 6th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H46HiaQp7YtfNiDZk/wild-animal-suffering-is-the-worst-thing-in-the-world

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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Introduction

In this post, I argue that the scale of farmed animal suffering far exceeds the expected mortality risk from engineered pandemics—by a factor of at least 100. I haven’t seen this explicit comparison made elsewhere, yet it strongly affects my personal cause prioritization.

However, it's important not to update solely on scale: the tractability and neglectedness of pandemic preparedness may still justify prioritizing it, despite its seemingly smaller scale. I would be excited to see more detailed work in this area—for example, comparing the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost to farming versus pandemics more rigorously than I do here.

Scale of biorisk

In The Precipice (2020), Toby Ord estimates a 1/30 risk of human extinction from engineered pandemics[1] this century. Spreading this risk over 80 years—from 2020 to 2100—gives an approximate 1/2,360 chance of extinction per year (on average).

The average global population in the 21st century [...]

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Outline:

(00:05) Introduction

(00:50) Scale of biorisk

(01:52) Scale of industrial farming

(01:57) Number of Animals

(02:18) Converting to human-equivalents

(03:23) Caveats and Uncertainties

(04:11) Why I might be wrong

(04:14) Apples to Oranges

(04:40) Population Ethics

(05:19) Civilizational Collapse and Value Lock-In

(05:53) Animal Suffering from Pandemics

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

February 6th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8us736BffZe682nux/biorisk-is-smaller-in-scale-than-farmed-animal-welfare

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

We just opened two Program Officer positions to own our nutrition and malaria chemoprevention grantmaking portfolios.

Last year, we made $50M in nutrition grants (areas like vitamin A supplementation, malnutrition treatment, and iron fortification) and $96M in malaria chemoprevention grants.

We’d like to expand and improve the quality of our work in both portfolios, so we’re looking for senior leaders to:

• Shape portfolio strategy, including expansion into new areas
• Lead complex grant investigations and recommend funding opportunities
• Build strong relationships with experts and implementers in the field
• Manage small teams of researchers and program associates

Details:

• Remote-friendly
• $200-220k salary
• Great fit for folks with 10+ years of relevant experience who are excited about using evidence to save and improve lives

More details and application here:

• Nutrition Program Officer
• Malaria Chemoprevention Program Officer

Please share with people in your network who might be a great [...]

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First published:

February 4th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/katrjGj7PSKrSKYhq/givewell-is-hiring-two-program-officers

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

TL;DR:

• Applications for EAG Bay Area close this Sunday, Feb 9th! Apply here.
• It's already on track to be one of our biggest ever US EAGs, but we’d like to make it even bigger.
• Due to our current catering and venue costs, it's relatively cheap at the moment to add extra attendees. So please don’t avoid applying because you’re worried about cost or taking someone else's space!
• If you’ve been accepted already, please register as soon as possible to confirm your place and get access to Swapcard.

Updates and Reminders

We wanted to share a few quick updates and reminders about EAG: Bay Area, happening Feb. 21–23. We’d love for you to apply (deadline Feb. 9th), and encourage friends and colleagues (especially ones in/near the Bay Area) to apply, perhaps by sharing this post!

• This year's EA Global: Bay Area will not be focused only on global catastrophic [...]

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Outline:

(00:08) TL;DR:

(00:47) Updates and Reminders

(02:27) Why you should apply to EA Global

(02:31) We suspect there are many people who clearly meet the admissions bar who are not applying

(03:38) Events are expensive; we don't want this to deter applications

(04:56) How others have gotten value out of EA Global

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First published:

February 5th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aKJzvxTxfzHE4dEp8/eag-bay-area-we-want-more-attendees-apply-by-feb-9

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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Multiple people have told me they like the moderation principles section of our internal moderation handbook. I’m posting it here out of a spirit of transparency and to give some insight into how the mod team thinks about moderation philosophy. It has mostly not been updated in two years — I still endorse it. It was written by Lizka and another departed staff member (and was inspired by the writing of many others).

This is an attempt to articulate some principles that have evolved on the team. It's aspirational — sometimes we fail — but we try to aim for this.

Balancing the need for a well-tended garden with the dangers of over-moderation

The Forum should be a great and safe space: we’re working on hard problems, and the internet can be rough! We don’t want arbitrary barriers to keep people from joining discussions on the Forum, we don’t [...]

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Outline:

(00:40) Balancing the need for a well-tended garden with the dangers of over-moderation

(00:49) Individuals with their own opinions, but together on a team

(00:57) Getting things done, but thoughtfully

(01:03) Modeling great behavior

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First published:

February 4th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AAEYctdLN9EirYL97/some-moderation-team-principles

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Many effective altruists have shown interest in expanding moral consideration to AIs, which I appreciate. However, in my experience, these EAs have primarily focused on AI welfare—mostly by advocating that AIs are treated well and protected from harm—rather than advocating for AI rights, which has the potential to grant AIs legal autonomy and freedoms. While these two approaches obviously overlap significantly, there is tendency for these approaches to come apart in the following way:

• A welfare approach often treats entities as passive recipients of care who require external protection. For example, when advocating for child welfare, one might support laws that prevent child abuse and ensure children's basic needs are met.
• A rights approach, by contrast, often recognizes entities as active agents who should be granted control over their own lives and resources. For example, historically, those advocating for minority rights have pushed for legal recognition of their [...]

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First published:

February 4th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/go6tHkBrNGmn4c9ce/ai-welfare-vs-ai-rights

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

The views expressed here are my own, not those of the people who provided feedback on the draft.

Summary

• According to the GPT Pain-Track from the Welfare Footprint Project (WFP), “Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are not only lethal to mosquitoes but also cause significant suffering before death. When mosquitoes come into contact with the insecticide, their nervous systems are disrupted, leading to intense and prolonged effects. These include uncontrolled movements, convulsions, and muscle spasms, which can last for minutes. This is followed by paralysis and eventual shutdown of their body functions. While effective at reducing disease transmission, ITNs inflict severe pain on mosquitoes during the process, making their impact far from instantaneous or painless”.
• I estimate GiveWell's (GW's) last grant to Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) of 41 M$ caused 763 times as much harm to mosquitoes via insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) as it benefited humans.
• I neglected the effects of ITNs on the number of wild [...]

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Outline:

(00:14) Summary

(03:09) Context

(03:48) Harm caused to mosquitoes

(11:00) Discussion

(16:15) Acknowledgements

The original text contained 14 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

February 3rd, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ADwZefuuaHZnrcNrG/insecticide-treated-nets-significantly-harm-mosquitoes-but

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Overview

Overcome is running a waitlist-controlled RCT to test the 4-week procrastination coaching programme following a successful pilot in late 2023. The sample will include EAs, animal advocates, and the general population. If you’re interested in joining the study, read on!

The Programme

4 x 1-hour coaching sessions over four consecutive weeks. Your coach will work with you to explore your procrastination triggers, and then help you develop and troubleshoot your tailored action plan. They’ll also incorporate cognitive behavioural therapy and mindfulness techniques to help you manage urges, as well as help you build long-term habits to reduce procrastination (e.g., sleep, relaxation, leisure). The programme was designed based on a literature review, expert interviews, personal experience, and our experience with procrastinating clients.

The Study

1. Sign up here to see if you’re eligible: https://bit.ly/overcome-procrastination-EA
2. If you’re eligible, you’ll be invited to a 20- to 30-minute screening call to confirm your [...]

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First published:

February 4th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QFxnWWvevmqx7dvEL/get-paid-usd12-to-procrastinate-less

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.