EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

Overview

Overcome is running a waitlist-controlled RCT to test the 4-week procrastination coaching programme following a successful pilot in late 2023. The sample will include EAs, animal advocates, and the general population. If you’re interested in joining the study, read on!

The Programme

4 x 1-hour coaching sessions over four consecutive weeks. Your coach will work with you to explore your procrastination triggers, and then help you develop and troubleshoot your tailored action plan. They’ll also incorporate cognitive behavioural therapy and mindfulness techniques to help you manage urges, as well as help you build long-term habits to reduce procrastination (e.g., sleep, relaxation, leisure). The programme was designed based on a literature review, expert interviews, personal experience, and our experience with procrastinating clients.

The Study

1. Sign up here to see if you’re eligible: https://bit.ly/overcome-procrastination-EA
2. If you’re eligible, you’ll be invited to a 20- to 30-minute screening call to confirm your [...]

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First published:

February 4th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QFxnWWvevmqx7dvEL/get-paid-usd12-to-procrastinate-less

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post.

Meta just published its version of an RSP (blogpost, framework).

(Expect several more of these in the next week as AI companies try to look like they're meeting the Seoul summit commitments before the Paris summit deadline in a week.)

Summary, quotes, and commentary in progress.

We define catastrophic outcomes in two domains: Cybersecurity and Chemical & biological risks.

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First published:

February 3rd, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oB8rj43dKYNawXWSy/meta-frontier-ai-framework

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

TLDR: I argue that mass deletion of scientific data due to the recent policy changes and executive orders in the US on government sites is a key concern in health, biosecurity and more. Action can be cheap, accessible and if done in time, can prevent critical information being lost until systems are restored.

Mass deletions are impactful (leaving medics without data, patients without treatment, scientists without evidence), neglected (not reported or centrally coordinated) and have a tractable solution (creating a temporary coordination of information gaps, and long term systems level change in the open storage of scientific public datasets).

Current policies are leading to mass deletion or removal of lots of academic papers. Many efforts are being done to try to archive it but it is slow, disparate, disjointed, and too unweildy to condence public science datasets to lone archives.

Just a few reports:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/trump-dei-hiv-cdc-website-removed-lgbtq-rcna190068

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/multiple-health-agency-websites-hiv-contraception-comply-executive/story?id=118335484

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cdc-deletes-hiv-lgbtq-care-222430401.html

[...]

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First published:

February 2nd, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fC3n2rCkouCq2Fhg2/why-the-current-mass-science-data-deletion-should-be-a-key

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post.

TL;DRs

Introduction

Part I. Superintelligence and Security: Contingencies in the Securitisation of AGI

• 1. Superintelligence may not be the defining feature of military capability…at least for a while
• 2. Superintelligence does not need to be a matter of national security in its entirety

Part II. Power and Polarity: The Limits of US Hegemony

• 3. US hegemony does not guarantee international security
• 4. Winning the arms race does not guarantee hegemony (and we may be screwed if it does)
• 5. A unipolar world order may be unstable in the age of AI
• 6. Hegemonic stability through AI domination fattens the heavy tail of catastrophic risks

Part III. Lessons and Learnings: Takeaways for the Governance of Emerging Technologies

• 7. Export controls are not mutually exclusive from engaging in collaborative governance
• 8. Norms can be powerful and we should shape them accordingly
• 9. We should [...]

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Outline:

(01:25) TL;DRs

(06:21) Introduction

(09:05) Part I. Superintelligence and Security: Contingencies in the Securitisation of AGI

(09:13) 1. Superintelligence may not be the defining feature of military capability...at least for a while

(16:35) 2. Superintelligence does not need to be a matter of national security in its entirety

(23:04) Part II. Power and Polarity: The Limits of US Hegemony

(23:11) 3. US hegemony does not guarantee international security

(29:55) 4. Winning the arms race does not guarantee hegemony (and we may be screwed if it does)

(34:50) 5. A unipolar world order may be unstable in the age of AI

(41:18) 6. Hegemonic stability through AI domination fattens the heavy tail of catastrophic risks

(49:55) Part III. Lessons and Learnings: Takeaways for the Governance of Emerging Technologies

(50:04) 7. Export controls are not mutually exclusive from engaging in collaborative governance

(55:29) 8. Norms can be powerful and we should shape them accordingly

(01:01:31) 9. We should be prioritise the mitigating of risks through scope-sensitive policies

(01:05:57) 10. We need alternatives to AGI realism

The original text contained 60 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

February 2nd, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gpWg4jvkE4poet7Nk/national-security-is-not-international-security-a-critique

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

This is a link post.

TL;DRs

Introduction

Part I. Superintelligence and Security: Contingencies in the Securitisation of AGI

• 1. Superintelligence may not be the defining feature of military capability…at least for a while
• 2. Superintelligence does not need to be a matter of national security in its entirety

Part II. Power and Polarity: The Limits of US Hegemony

• 3. US hegemony does not guarantee international security
• 4. Winning the arms race does not guarantee hegemony (and we may be screwed if it does)
• 5. A unipolar world order may be unstable in the age of AI
• 6. Hegemonic stability through AI domination fattens the heavy tail of catastrophic risks

Part III. Lessons and Learnings: Takeaways for the Governance of Emerging Technologies

• 7. Export controls are not mutually exclusive from engaging in collaborative governance
• 8. Norms can be powerful and we should shape them accordingly
• 9. We should [...]

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Outline:

(01:25) TL;DRs

(06:17) Introduction

(09:01) Part I. Superintelligence and Security: Contingencies in the Securitisation of AGI

(09:09) 1. Superintelligence may not be the defining feature of military capability...at least for a while

(16:32) 2. Superintelligence does not need to be a matter of national security in its entirety

(23:00) Part II. Power and Polarity: The Limits of US Hegemony

(23:07) 3. US hegemony does not guarantee international security

(29:51) 4. Winning the arms race does not guarantee hegemony (and we may be screwed if it does)

(34:46) 5. A unipolar world order may be unstable in the age of AI

(41:14) 6. Hegemonic stability through AI domination fattens the heavy tail of catastrophic risks

(49:52) Part III. Lessons and Learnings: Takeaways for the Governance of Emerging Technologies

(50:00) 7. Export controls are not mutually exclusive from engaging in collaborative governance

(55:25) 8. Norms can be powerful and we should shape them accordingly

(01:01:27) 9. We should be prioritising the mitigating of risks through scope-sensitive policies

(01:05:38) 10. We need alternatives to AGI realism

The original text contained 60 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

February 2nd, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gpWg4jvkE4poet7Nk/national-security-is-not-international-security-a-critique

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Huh, didn't expect my first post to be this, but here we are..

Please share your own favorite tools in the comments and give suggestions - I will update sporadically!

(also let me know if there are versions of the things I suggest which you think are better)

Some are basic. Some are new & neat. Most also have an app. I use many of them on a weekly or even daily basis. Here we go!

Beeper (pc & app) - OhMyGodILoveThisSoMuch! (for messages)

• Do you use FB Messenger, Whatsapp, Telegram, Signal?
• Beeper collects all your messaging apps. In one.
• On laptop it has the #HolyFunction of "unread" filter. It is a godsend for me not to forget people
  • Yes, you get a list of all your unread messages across all your platforms (that you've chosen to connect)
• You can even add Discord, Slack [...]

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Outline:

(00:32) Beeper (pc and app) - OhMyGodILoveThisSoMuch! (for messages)

(01:10) Calendly (pc and app) (or similar booking service)

(01:30) Other scheduling

(01:49) Everything (pc) - search all your pc files instantly

(02:21) Focusmate (pc and app) - accountability calls with strangers

(02:51) Justin Sung - My learning guru

(03:43) Napkin.ai - visualizes your text

(04:17) Canva (pc and app) - for designing presentations, posters and much more

(04:43) For the EA design-style and graphics/logos:

(04:54) File sharing and converting

(05:25) Libraries

(05:54) Not a resource, but if you live in the Northern hemisphere for the love of God rationality take vitamin D in the dark seasons!

(06:10) Clickup (pc and app) - my new favorite productivity app

(07:12) Habitica (pc and app) - if you like gamification of your habits

(07:32) Waking up (pc and app) - Sam Harris meditation app

(07:47) Fighting phone over-use

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First published:

February 2nd, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RSKrGH6xFoNwgECzv/some-tools-i-think-you-should-know-if-you-don-t-already

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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Tessa Alexanian and I (both biosecurity researchers) were talking about projects in the domain of DNA screening that we wish someone would take on. (For a primer on why this matters, see this essay in Asimov Press).

We’ve outlined five projects that we believe are modular and high impact, with the hope that people who want to contribute to biosecurity could take up the attempt without requiring heavy context.

Note that Tessa/IBBIS may also be working on these projects this year, depending on time & resources, so if you’re interested you can email [email protected] with your name, background, and your interest. We’ll get back to you shortly!

Note that this is different from Tessa's past list or ASB's list by being much smaller in scope. Most of these could be finished within two months.

1. ORCID-TAXID Mapping Tool

Purpose

Create a tool that maps researchers' [...]

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Outline:

(00:57) 1. ORCID-TAXID Mapping Tool

(01:01) Purpose

(01:53) Details

(02:17) Impact

(02:40) 2. Customer Screening Training Dataset

(02:45) Purpose

(03:21) Details

(03:41) Applications

(03:54) 3. Biosecurity Statements Repository

(03:59) Purpose

(04:10) Motivation

(04:33) Details

(05:00) Impact

(05:15) 4. Vulnerability Disclosure Framework

(07:38) 5. International Suspicious Activity Reporting Analysis

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First published:

January 31st, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RwMpnHwqhTZ2rrwbr/five-tractable-biosecurity-projects-you-could-start-tomorrow

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

The Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR) does research and community building aimed at reducing s-risk.

Jesse Clifton is stepping down as CLR's Executive Director. He’ll be succeeded by Tristan Cook as Managing Director and Mia Taylor as Interim Research Director. [1]

Statement from Jesse

Over the past year or so, I’ve become increasingly convinced by arguments that we are clueless about the sign (in terms of expected total suffering reduced) of interventions aimed at reducing s-risk. (And I think it's plausible that we should consider ourselves clueless about interventions aimed at improved expected total welfare, generally.) The other researchers on CLR's Conceptual Research team[2] have come to a similar view,[3] but not the other staff or the board, who are still positive on the pre-cluelessness priorities.

Given this, I don’t think it makes sense for me to lead CLR. So, for now, I’ll be transitioning to working [...]

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Outline:

(00:25) Statement from Jesse

(03:06) Statement from Mia and Tristan

The original text contained 6 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

January 31st, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YE3tdpE6JdiWRqqKx/leadership-change-at-the-center-on-long-term-risk

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post.

Full version on arXiv | X

Executive summary

AI risk scenarios usually portray a relatively sudden loss of human control to AIs, outmaneuvering individual humans and human institutions, due to a sudden increase in AI capabilities, or a coordinated betrayal. However, we argue that even an incremental increase in AI capabilities, without any coordinated power-seeking, poses a substantial risk of eventual human disempowerment. This loss of human influence will be centrally driven by having more competitive machine alternatives to humans in almost all societal functions, such as economic labor, decision making, artistic creation, and even companionship.

A gradual loss of control of our own civilization might sound implausible. Hasn't technological disruption usually improved aggregate human welfare? We argue that the alignment of societal systems with human interests has been stable only because of the necessity of human participation for thriving economies, states, and [...]

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First published:

January 30th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vLDd4tit9gJtLmZZY/gradual-disempowerment-systemic-existential-risks-from

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post.

Many thinkers worth reading wrote in past centuries:

• 1600s: Bacon, Hobbes, Descartes, Spinoza, Locke, Leibniz
• 1700s: Berkeley, Hume, Rousseau, Smith, Kant, Burke, Bentham
• 1800s: Schopenhauer, Mill, Sidgwick

Some of them wrote in English and their texts are usually presented in the original, even when they use archaic spelling, punctuation, and style. (This is in contrast to foreign-language works which are often translated to a modern style.)

For example, in the past there were more uses of the comma, such as

• Before any relative clause:
  • Dickens: “The objects he had lately pursued, turned worthless beside her”
  • Melville: “This august dignity I treat of, is not the dignity of kings”
• Before any clause starting with “that” for any reason:
  • Austen: “It is a truth universally acknowledged, that…”
• After any clausal or compound subject as far as I can tell:
  • J Robertson: “Whoever [...]

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First published:

January 30th, 2025

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7bASeA48kRR868oY4/you-should-read-hobbes-locke-hume-and-mill-via

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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