EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

Context

The Worldview Investigations Team at Rethink Priorities is in the process of building a model to estimate the probabilities of consciousness in near-future AIs. We are still in the early stages of constructing our model and expect some of the details to change as others get filled in. The following is intended to convey our perspective as we start fleshing out the scaffold of our model.

Basic Aims

Why do we want to investigate AI consciousness?

Consciousness in contemporary or near-future AI systems is becoming a matter of practical concern. It's widely thought that, if AI systems were conscious, they would deserve some moral consideration, and the fortunes of AI labs may be influenced by their perceived moral, social, and legal liabilities. The success of the policies and procedures that aim to mitigate harm to AI systems depends on how well the labs and the public understand the [...]

---

Outline:

(00:07) Context

(00:32) Basic Aims

(04:53) Desiderata for a modeling strategy

(08:57) Our approach

(09:14) Our hierarchical model structure

(10:54) Our Bayesian treatment of evidence

(14:43) Our thematic interpretation of evidence

(19:30) Desiderata satisfied

(22:07) Acknowledgments

The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

We’re thinking about changing our narrator's voice.

There are three new voices on the shortlist. They’re all similarly good in terms of comprehension, emphasis, error rate, etc. They just sound different—like people do.

We think they all sound similarly agreeable. But, thousands of listening hours are at stake, so we thought it’d be worth giving listeners an opportunity to vote—just in case there’s a strong collective preference.

Listen and vote

Please listen here:

https://files.type3.audio/ea-forum-poll/

And vote here:

https://forms.gle/m7Ffk3EGorUn4XU46

It’ll take 1-10 minutes, depending on how much of the sample you decide to listen to.

We'll collect votes until Monday December 16th. Thanks!

---

Outline:

(00:47) Listen and vote

(01:11) Other feedback?

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Science just released an article, with an accompanying technical report, about a neglected source of biological risk.

From the abstract of the technical report:

This report describes the technical feasibility of creating mirror bacteria and the potentially serious and wide-ranging risks that they could pose to humans, other animals, plants, and the environment...

In a mirror bacterium, all of the chiral molecules of existing bacteria—proteins, nucleic acids, and metabolites—are replaced by their mirror images. Mirror bacteria could not evolve from existing life, but their creation will become increasingly feasible as science advances. Interactions between organisms often depend on chirality, and so interactions between natural organisms and mirror bacteria would be profoundly different from those between natural organisms. Most importantly, immune defenses and predation typically rely on interactions between chiral molecules that could often fail to detect or kill mirror bacteria due to their reversed [...]

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Short summary

• Publicly disclosed investments of around $2B have flowed into insect farming businesses to date, mostly producers of black soldier fly larvae (59%) and mealworms (36%). But major players accounting for 37% of investment have either failed or are known to be struggling.
• Annual investment flows into insect farming were growing rapidly prior to 2021, but this trend appears to have stopped. Investor sentiment is low and has been rocked by recent failures.
• I built a simple model to estimate what paths for future investment flows might mean for future production capacity of dried black soldier fly and mealworm larvae.
• The median model projection points to production capacity of 221K metric tonnes of dried insects by 2030, less than half of that predicted in an influential 2021 Rabobank report.
• Despite a more modest production outlook, the median scenario is still consistent with a [...]

---

Outline:

(00:11) Short summary

(01:36) Longer summary

(04:25) Selected charts from the report

The original text contained 5 images which were described by AI.

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Epistemic status: Not a SME and not a data analyst. If mistakes are brought to my attention, I will likely make running changes and pretend it was like that all along.

Summary

I'm splitting this into two parts.

Part A is mostly descriptive, in which I share information on next-generation long-lasting insecticide treated bed nets (LLINs):

• Of the LLINs produced to counter insecticide resistance, WHO and GiveWell agree that those that include the active ingredient chlorfenapyr are the most effective.
• Effectiveness analysis conducted by Mosha et al. (2022) estimated that LLINs with chlorfenapyr more than half the incidence of malaria in children in the first year, and reduce it by over a third in the second year, compared to traditional LLINs.
• GiveWell's current estimate is that LLINs that include chlorfenapyr have precisely negated the effects of insecticide resistance accrued since approximately the year 2000.

Part B is [...]

---

Outline:

(00:17) Summary

(02:02) \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*

(02:22) Part A

(02:25) Introduction

(04:17) Results of next-gen LLIN field RCTs

(04:24) Overview

(06:49) Trials test product effectiveness, not active ingredient effectiveness per se

(09:23) Effectiveness Analyses by Pros

(09:27) Mosha et al.

(14:45) GiveWells estimates

(15:01) A ~45% base effectiveness

(16:16) How much has pyrethroid resistance diminished LLIN effectiveness?

(19:12) \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*

(19:32) Part B

(19:35) My estimate for Interceptor G2 LLIN effectiveness

(21:45) Modelling to get my estimate

(23:01) Effect size inputs

(23:05) What is the assumed Interceptor G1 effect at 70% use rates?

(24:22) What was the effect for cohort children in the trials?

(25:03) Other model inputs underlying adjustments

(25:08) Community versus personal protection

(25:43) LLIN use rates

(26:04) Internal validity adjustments

(26:08) 1. What was the effect for typical children in the trials?

(26:59) 2. What would have been this effect if clusters were pure?

(27:30) True Incidence RRs under trial context

(28:05) External validity adjustment

(28:35) 3. What would have been this effect at 70% use rates?

(29:27) Final Estimate

(29:49) Extra Notes on Important Things

(29:53) My Uncertainty

(31:44) Costs

(33:25) Generalising to other pyrethroid+chlorfenapyr LLINs

(38:15) \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*

(38:35) Conclusion

(38:42) Acknowledgments

The original text contained 144 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

The original text contained 10 images which were described by AI.

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

The EA Infrastructure Fund isn’t currently funding-constrained. Hooray! This means that if you submit a strong application that fits within our “principles-first” effective altruism scope soon, we’d be excited to fund it, and won’t be constrained by a lack of money. We’re open to considering a range of grant sizes, including grants over $500,000 and below $10,000.[1]

In part, we’re writing this post because we spoke to a few people with projects we’d be interested in funding who didn’t know that they could apply to EAIF. If you’re unsure, feel free to ask me questions or just apply!

The rest of this post gives you some tips and ideas for how you could apply, including ideas we’re excited to receive applications for. I (Jamie) wrote this post relatively quickly; EAIF staff might make more such posts if people find them helpful.

🔍 What's in scope?

• Research that aids [...]

---

Outline:

(01:00) 🔍 What's in scope?

(01:36) 💪 What makes an application strong?

(02:32) 💡 Consider applying for projects in these areas

(02:38) Epistemics and integrity

(04:49) EA brand and reputation

(06:35) Funding diversification

(08:18) Areas deprioritised by Good Ventures

(08:51) ✨ This is by no means an exhaustive list!

(10:18) ❓ Ask me almost anything

(10:51) 🚀 Apply

The original text contained 12 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Me and Allan recorded this podcast on Tuesday 10th December, based on the questions in this AMA. I used Claude to edit the transcript, but I've read over it for accuracy.

---

The views expressed here are my own, not those of my employers or people who provided feedback.

Summary

• The number of cage-free commitments is a very rough proxy for the benefits of organisations advocating for them (the size of the population of hens impacted would be a better one), and the number of these organisations is a very rough proxy for their spending. So the additional commitments per extra organisation is a very rough proxy for their cost-effectiveness.
• Holding egg production constant, the number of all cage-free commitments across countries:
  • Globally, increases with the number of bad-cop/good-cop organisations, and more so with bad-cop ones. This suggests creating new organisations, especially bad-cop ones, results in more commitments.
  • In Asia/Europe, increases with the number of bad-cop/good-cop organisations, and more so with good-cop ones. This suggests creating new organisations there, especially good-cop ones, results in more commitments.
  • In Latin America [...]

---

Outline:

(00:14) Summary

(01:36) Introduction

(02:13) Methods

(03:13) Results

(03:46) All commitments

(04:16) Global commitments

(04:45) Regional commitments

(05:15) National commitments

(05:45) Discussion

(06:55) Acknowledgements

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Next week the Effective Altruism Forum is doing a Pledge Highlight week, and they asked if I could post an Ask Me Anything (AMA) about my experiences.

Most of the helpful background on me is in my post from last year, 10 years of Earning To Give. To highlight some potential prompts for questions:

• I work as a quantitative trader in London.
• I took the Giving What We Can pledge in 2013 upon leaving university, with a pledged percentage of 20%.
• My household has donated £1.5m over the last decade, or just under 50% of our household income.
• I've had a relatively high level of involvement in the EA community during much of that time period, though less in the past few years.
• My wife and I have 4 kids (14, 7, 3, 0).

I plan to answer questions on Tuesday 17th December, likely during the London [...]

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

In my capacity as Effective Giving Global Coordinator and Incubator at Giving What We Can (GWWC) I’m currently exploring whether there's some value in (someone) building a community for those in the earning to give (EtG) space—specifically, whether there is scope for GWWC or another organisation to incubate a project of some kind that's genuinely useful here. The key questions we’re trying to answer are: Who is out there? What do EtGers need? And is there a community-building project that could offer real value? My next step in this exploration is identifying EtGers who are interested in this among GWWC's community of pledgers.

A note of clarification: Outside of the EA community, the 10% Pledge is often misinterpreted as being targeted directly and/or exclusively at people who are earning to give. We wish to explicitly clarify that this is not the case. Rather, the Pledge is aimed at anyone [...]

---

Outline:

(01:13) What do we mean by EtG?

(02:24) Launching the EtG Pledge Club

---

First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.