EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

Hi everyone. My name is Caroline Oliveira. I’m the Development Director of Sinergia Animal, and this is my first EA Forum post.

I’m delighted to share that Sinergia Animal has just been recommended by Animal Charity Evaluators for the seventh year in a row.

The latest analysis suggests our work impacts 113 million farmed animals every year. But when we attend conferences, we find that a lot of EAs haven’t heard of us. So we’ve come here to introduce ourselves - and raise awareness of the unique, impactful donation opportunity that we offer.

We’re not eligible for the donation election, because we aren’t registered in the UK or the US. However, with giving season on the Forum well underway, we thought now was a good time to throw our hat in the ring.

Who are we?

Sinergia Animal is an international [...]

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First published:

December 4th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dTerHLZj2aRKd2wLQ/sinergia-animal-helps-113-million-farmed-animals-every-year

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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There are a couple experiences that have made me think of this question.

One happened in the fall. As I walked around a neighborhood near where I lived, I noticed large mossy spheres that seemed to be growing on all the rose bushes I passed. Eventually, I came to a bush that wasn't on anyone's property and crushed one of the mossy spheres in my hand. I couldn't see anything in particular, but I suspected it was the doing of some insect. I realized there were blackened versions of the galls hanging from the bushes, too, and crushed some of those. I only crushed a few, and found little dead flies inside a couple of them. My guess is that those rose gall wasps never made it out of the spaces they chewed for themselves as larvae and starved to death inside of the dark rooms.

Another was when [...]

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Outline:

(05:18) Nothing to Envy by Barbara Demick - A history of North Korea in the 1990s

(15:10) Night by Elie Weisel - A memoir of a Holocaust survivor

(17:54) Madagascar 2021-2022

(19:46) Concluding remarks

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First published:

December 5th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jgSEPhxfJtbZYyTcb/what-does-starvation-feel-like

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

(You can read this post as a Google Doc, which may be easier to share with global health focused non-EAs)

The UK Parliament's International Development Committee is a cross-party group which scrutinises the work of the UK government on international development. There is a current consultation by the Committee which presents an critical and tractable opportunity for people to push the UK government to give greater focus to lead elimination. The consultation closes in three days on Monday December 9th and anyone can make a submission, you don't have to be an expert or a UK citizen to do so.

Context

The committee is able to focus on specific policy areas and make recommendations for the government, which may be accepted or rejected. Even when recommendations are rejected, scrutiny of a particular policy area increases the attention which government ministers give to the policy area and to the [...]

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Outline:

(00:39) Context

(01:43) Making a Submission

(03:00) Further Information

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First published:

December 6th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/K4kEeCv87A4qiPpp4/3-days-to-tell-the-uk-to-focus-on-lead

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

In approximately the coming decade, I think it's likely that we will see the large-scale release of AI agents that are capable of long-term planning, automating many types of remote labor, and taking actions autonomously in the real world. When this occurs, it seems likely that at least some of these agents will be unaligned with human goals, in the sense of having some independent goals that are not shared by humans.

Moreover, it seems to me that this shift will likely occur before any AI agents overwhelmingly surpass human intelligence or capabilities. As a result, these agents will not be capable of forcibly taking over the world, radically accelerating scientific progress, or causing human extinction, even though they may still be unaligned with human preferences.

Since these relatively weaker unaligned AI agents won't have the power to take over the world, it's more likely that they would pursue [...]

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First published:

December 6th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4LNiPhP6vw2A5Pue3/consider-granting-ais-freedom

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This post was crossposted from Oliver Kim's Global Developments blog, with the author's permission, by the Forum team. The author may not see comments.

A Review of Morten Jerven's Poor Numbers, A Decade On

Poor Numbers: How We Are Misled by African Development Statistics and What to Do About It, by Morten Jerven. 2013.

I think most users of GDP presume that, when they download an Excel spreadsheet from a slick-looking official website like the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund, what they get is something FDA-approved for human consumption—that, somewhere down the line, maybe in some other room down the hall, the real experts have done the shoe-leather work to make sure that the numbers are accurate and reliable.

Morten Jerven's 2013 book, Poor Numbers, is about why that isn’t true.

The Late 1980s Tanzanian Growth Catastrophe

Perhaps the best illustration comes from Tanzania, where the socialist [...]

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Outline:

(01:07) The Late 1980s Tanzanian Growth Catastrophe

(05:13) “What Happens If I Disappear?”

(09:31) A Marginal Proposal

The original text contained 20 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

December 5th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WMgkGriC9dbcrnKFD/how-much-should-we-trust-developing-country-gdp

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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This is a transcript of my opening talk at EA Global: Boston 2024. I discussed how EA can build lasting change by learning from both our successes and setbacks. I outlined three essential elements for creating enduring impact: grit to persist through challenges, humility to learn from setbacks, and courage to share our stories.

Key Points:

• The EA community's role in lead elimination showcases how patient, persistent work can create lasting change through building coalitions and inspiring others to act, culminating in initiatives like USAID's Partnership for a Lead-Free Future.
• Animal welfare campaigns show the importance of sustained commitment—taking a decade of work before achieving widespread cage-free commitments with an 89% implementation rate.
• From the FTX crisis to failed projects documented on the EA Forum, the EA community's willingness to examine setbacks transparently helps us to learn from our mistakes and build more resilient institutions.
• Awareness of EA [...]

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Outline:

(01:31) Lead elimination: A case study

(07:19) Grit: Cage-free campaigns

(11:59) Humility: Learning from setbacks

(14:59) Learning from the FTX Crisis

(16:33) Institutional Reform

(20:04) Courage: Communicating our story

(24:18) Looking forward

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First published:

December 5th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jjgkziZZijW4Qffki/grit-humility-and-courage-three-ingredients-for-building-ea

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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This is a link post.

This is a crosspost for Replacing chicken meat with beef or pork is better than the reverse, which was written by me, and published on One Step for Animals' blog on 27 November 2024. One Step for Animals is an organisation aiming to cost-effectively decrease animal suffering by asking people to stop eating chickens.

The views expressed here are my own, not those of my employers. Thanks to Matt Ball for inviting me to write something on the trade-offs between animal welfare and greenhouse gas emissions of replacing chicken meat, and feedback on the draft.

Replacing beef or pork with chicken meat decreases greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but has major negative impacts on animal welfare. I estimate that replacing one serving of:

• Beef with one from chicken meat from broilers in a conventional scenario, decreases GHG emissions by 6.44 kgCO2eq, but also leads to:
  [...]

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First published:

December 4th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FQokSKpZDaLQk7vcJ/replacing-chicken-meat-with-beef-or-pork-is-better-than-the

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

The Map

We’ve created a public spreadsheet outlining the main organizations in the EA mental health space.

Purpose 

Our goal is to foster collaboration within the EA mental health community. Many organizations, groups, and individuals are working to improve mental health globally and within the EA community specifically, but there's a lack of awareness and connection between them. The space would benefit from having access to a more highly integrated network to coordinate related efforts.

This spreadsheet also serves as a tool for community members to get connected to the mental health resources that will support their well-being and learn what is happening in the mental health space.

EA Mental Health Working Group

We’ve started a working group that aims to identify and implement cost-effective interventions to improve wellbeing at scale. If you have any insights, ideas or expertise to share, or would like to provide feedback on [...]

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Outline:

(00:07) The Map

(00:17) Purpose

(00:53) EA Mental Health Working Group

(01:24) Feedback

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First published:

December 3rd, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ybE95EKsnLcnt3YkY/mapping-the-ea-psychology-mental-health-space-1

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Tom did the original thinking; Rose helped with later thinking, structure and writing.

Some plans for AI governance involve centralising western AGI development.[1] Would this actually be a good idea? We don’t think this question has been analysed in enough detail, given how important it is. In this post, we’re going to:

1. Explore the strategic implications of having one project instead of several
2. Discuss what we think the best path forwards is, given that strategic landscape

(If at this point you’re thinking ‘this is all irrelevant, because centralisation is inevitable’, we disagree! We suggest you read the appendix, and then consider if you want to read the rest of the post.)

On 2, we’re going to present:

• Our overall take: It's very unclear whether centralising would be good or bad.
• Our current best guess: Centralisation is probably net bad, because of risks from power concentration (but this is very uncertain).

[...]

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Outline:

(01:39) What are the strategic implications of having one instead of several projects?

(02:36) Summary table

(02:53) Race dynamics

(03:23) Racing between western projects

(04:51) Racing between the US and China

(07:37) Why do race dynamics matter?

(08:47) Power concentration

(13:09) Why does power concentration matter?

(14:38) Infosecurity

(17:40) Why does infosecurity matter?

(19:11) What is the best path forwards, given that strategic landscape?

(20:04) Our overall take

(22:07) Our current best guess

(26:53) Overall conclusion

(29:21) Appendix: Why we don’t think centralisation is inevitable

The original text contained 20 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

The original text contained 7 images which were described by AI.

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First published:

December 4th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YHutPosXA26pdqHXB/should-there-be-just-one-western-agi-project

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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By Max Ghenis, Co-founder and CEO of PolicyEngine[1]

This Giving Tuesday, we're launching GiveCalc, a free tool that calculates how charitable giving affects your US taxes and net income. When you make a tax-deductible donation, you reduce not just your taxable income, but your tax liability—often in complex ways that vary by state, income level, and other factors. GiveCalc extends PolicyEngine's open-source US microsimulation model to compute these effects and help you give more effectively.

How GiveCalc transforms the 🔸10% Pledge calculation

Many donors consider Giving What We Can's 🔸10% Pledge, which marks a commitment to give at least 10% of income to effective organizations. GWWC suggests choosing between pre-tax and post-tax income as the pledge base, with pre-tax recommended when donations are tax-deductible.

Take a family in California earning $200,000, with two children and $15,000 in mortgage interest and property taxes. Without donations, they take home $153,895 [...]

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Outline:

(00:42) How GiveCalc transforms the 🔸10% Pledge calculation

(03:11) Finding your optimal giving level

(04:30) A note on methodology

(05:01) Whats next for GiveCalc

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

The original text contained 4 images which were described by AI.

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First published:

December 3rd, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gRLipHaijMn4ffv3a/givecalc-a-new-tool-to-calculate-the-true-cost-of-us

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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