EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

Foreword

Sadly, it looks like the debate week will end without many of the stronger[1] arguments for Global Health being raised, at least at the post level. I don't have time to write them all up, and in many cases they would be better written by someone with more expertise, but one issue is firmly in my comfort zone: the maths!

The point I raise here is closely related to the Two Envelopes Problem, which has been discussed before. I think some of this discussion can come across as 'too technical', which is unfortunate since I think a qualitative understanding of the issue is critical to making good decisions when under substantial uncertainty. In this post I want to try and demystify it.

This post was written quickly, and has a correspondingly high chance of error, for which I apologise. I am confident in the core point, and [...]

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Outline:

(00:05) Foreword

(00:59) Two envelopes: the EA version

(02:59) What just happened?

(04:17) Some implications

(05:27) Global Health vs. Animal Welfare

(07:28) Conclusion

The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

October 13th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/atdmkTAnoPMfmHJsX/multiplier-arguments-are-often-flawed

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This post starts out pretty gloomy but ends up with some points that I feel pretty positive about. Day to day, I'm more focussed on the positive points, but awareness of the negative has been crucial to forming my priorities, so I'm going to start with those. It's mostly addressed to the EA community, but is hopefully somewhat of interest to LessWrong and the Alignment Forum as well.

My main concerns

I think AGI is going to be developed soon, and quickly. Possibly (20%) that's next year, and most likely (80%) before the end of 2029. These are not things you need to believe for yourself in order to understand my view, so no worries if you're not personally convinced of this.

(For what it's worth, I did arrive at this view through years of study and research in AI, combined with over a decade of private forecasting practice [...]

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Outline:

(00:28) My main concerns

(03:41) Extinction by industrial dehumanization

(05:59) Successionism as a driver of industrial dehumanization

(11:07) My theory of change: confronting successionism with human-specific industries

(15:53) How I identified healthcare as the industry most relevant to caring for humans

(20:00) But why not just do safety work with big AI labs or governments?

(23:22) Conclusion

The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

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First published:

October 12th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XuoNBrxH4AGoyQEDL/my-theory-of-change-for-working-in-ai-healthtech

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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This is a link post.

I think and talk a lot about the risks of powerful AI. The company I’m the CEO of, Anthropic, does a lot of research on how to reduce these risks. Because of this, people sometimes draw the conclusion that I’m a pessimist or “doomer” who thinks AI will be mostly bad or dangerous. I don’t think that at all. In fact, one of my main reasons for focusing on risks is that they’re the only thing standing between us and what I see as a fundamentally positive future. I think that most people are underestimating just how radical the upside of AI could be, just as I think most people are underestimating how bad the risks could be.

In this essay I try to sketch out what that upside might look like—what a world with powerful AI might look like if everything goes right. Of [...]

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First published:

October 11th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/h22mEkh9o5vCQE8Ti/dario-amodei-machines-of-loving-grace

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Disclaimer: I work at EA animal welfare organisations but this piece reflects my personal views, not the views of the organisations I am involved with.

I am pleasantly surprised by the amount of support for animal welfare in this debate. There were more than a hundred people who voted very strongly for animal welfare which makes about %25 of all votes (I voted in favour of animal welfare too!) . But I also think there are some strong reasons for being more cautious (this is why I voted for a more moderate position). I think it might be beneficial to be mindful of these.

There are not a lot of pro-GHD arguments in the debate too - so I hope this also adds some more balance to the debate:)

Scale and neglectedness of the problem might be irrelevant unless it is solvable: When comparing animal welfare and human welfare [...]

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First published:

October 11th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rNZFuuwAHiLPnaEiq/some-reasons-for-not-prioritising-animal-welfare-very

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

EA Nigeria Summit was the first EA-related conference in Nigeria, and it took place from September 6th to 7th, 2024. The event saw a higher level of interest than we (the organisers) expected. We received applications from individuals across Nigeria and the international community, especially Africans. We accepted 170 applicants for the summit, and a total of 136 participants attended the event.

The summit provided an opportunity for the attendees to connect, network, and share ideas and practices, paving the way for potential collaboration and impactful actions at the cost of USD 179.6 per attendee.

Some Key Specifics 

Location - Chida Event Centre, Utako, Abuja, Nigeria.

Applications received - 472, (18 applications were duplicates)

Admitted applicants - 170

Confirmed attendees - 137

Number of speakers - 14

Total Expenses - USD 24,611

Cost per attendee - 179.6 USD

The first EA-aligned conference in Nigeria! 

We [...]

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Outline:

(01:03) Some Key Specifics

(01:39) The first EA-aligned conference in Nigeria!

(02:37) Summit Goal and Strategy

(04:19) Attendees and Experience

(07:18) Budgeting and Finances

(10:14) Content

(11:40) Production and Logistics

(12:02) Dealing with Vendors:

(12:28) Securing the Summit Venue:

(13:26) Video Production and Photography

(14:00) Printing

(14:31) Logistics (Summit Day 1 and 2)

(15:19) Communication and Event Tech

(16:26) Some Additional Brief

(17:12) Core Team and Volunteers

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

The original text contained 6 images which were described by AI.

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First published:

October 11th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xyGYuoP8EfXmirdZg/retrospective-on-ea-nigeria-summit-our-successes-and

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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In summary, there are two important reasons why I believe it's more important to direct additional resources towards animal welfare over global health:

1. Global health and human welfare are generally improving whilst animal suffering is getting worse at a worrying (and potentially accelerating) rate. For factory farming, the default is it gets worse and worse over the next 50 years. In my view, it's still unclear if we’ll end factory farming and we’re competing with a very powerful incumbent industry to make it happen. I don’t believe the same trajectory is true for global health.
2. Animal welfare is orders of magnitude more neglected on most important metrics: Philanthropic funding, government funding or great people working on the issue.

These reasons aren’t necessarily all that is required to think it would be better to spend an additional $100M on animal welfare relative to global health (see the 80,000 Hours [...]

The original text contained 10 images which were described by AI.

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First published:

October 11th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QbRFwPks5nFLK8i2W/the-default-trajectory-for-animal-welfare-means-vastly-more

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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I really loved this quick take from Lizka, especially this part:

At the same time, trying to actually do anything is really hard.[4] Appreciation for doers is often undersupplied. Being in leadership positions or engaging in public discussions is a valuable service, but opens you up to a lot of (often stressful) criticism, which acts as a disincentive for being public. Psychological safety is important in teams (and communities), so it's unfortunate that critical environments lead more people to feel like they would be judged harshly for potential mistakes. Not all criticism is useful enough to be worth engaging with (or sharing). Responding to criticism can be time-consuming or otherwise costly and isn’t always worth it.[5] Sometimes people who are sharing “criticism” hate the project for reasons that aren’t what's explicitly stated, or just want to vent or build themselves up.[6]

A lot of communities I've been part of-- [...]

The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

October 11th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tuSQBGgnoxvsXwXJ3/criticism-is-sanctified-in-ea-but-like-any-intervention

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

I really loved this quick take from Lizka, especially this part:

At the same time, trying to actually do anything is really hard.[4] Appreciation for doers is often undersupplied. Being in leadership positions or engaging in public discussions is a valuable service, but opens you up to a lot of (often stressful) criticism, which acts as a disincentive for being public. Psychological safety is important in teams (and communities), so it's unfortunate that critical environments lead more people to feel like they would be judged harshly for potential mistakes. Not all criticism is useful enough to be worth engaging with (or sharing). Responding to criticism can be time-consuming or otherwise costly and isn’t always worth it.[5] Sometimes people who are sharing “criticism” hate the project for reasons that aren’t what's explicitly stated, or just want to vent or build themselves up.[6]

A lot of communities I've been part of-- [...]

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First published:

October 11th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tuSQBGgnoxvsXwXJ3/criticism-is-sanctified-in-ea-but-like-any-intervention

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a cross-post from my Substack, where I don't assume much background knowledge on AI safety and trends.

I feel like I live in two different worlds sometimes.

In one world, the next decade will be... normal. Sure, I’ll see the world change, but it will change in familiar ways. I’ll see wars in places other than the US and western Europe, turbulent US politics, and a steady stream of tech and societal progress.

In the other world, the next decade will be.... turbo-charged by transformative AI progress.

In this possible future, the abstract predictions of some AI experts and insiders today stop being abstract. I’ll actually see AI systems that can do most of work of today's software-based knowledge workers, and eventually of small organizations; I’ll see people close to me form deep relationships with AI companions; I’ll see fierce international competition to control AI [...]

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Outline:

(02:13) A deep mismatch

(03:20) Orienting to the possibility of rapid, transformative AI progress

(05:20) I’m mostly interested in the most capable AI systems

(07:35) Developing extremely capable AI systems soon poses challenges we don’t seem prepared for

(11:15) If-Then updates, at a personal and policy level

The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:

October 10th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gQMM9vFbRjvBzgnBS/ai-and-the-feeling-of-living-in-two-worlds

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

For many years, I devoted myself to improving human health and wellbeing. But then I shifted to working to prevent suffering for animals. In this post, I will briefly share some considerations that pushed me to make this change.

Violence

The phrase ‘animal welfare’ can sound pretty calm and gentle.

But when we talk about ‘animal welfare’, we are usually talking about preventing direct, brutal, physical *violence* against sentient beings.

Animals in the food system are brutalised, beaten, confined, stabbed, castrated, cut, boiled alive, dragged, gassed, asphyxiated, separated from their mothers/children, violated, skinned.

Imagine being castrated, with no anaesthetic. Having your throat slit while you are still conscious. Violated, and forcibly inseminated. Being crammed into a tiny, tiny space for days on end, where you can’t stretch your limbs, or turn around. Skinned alive.

There is something so…brutal, maximalist, harsh, extreme about the intense physical violence that we [...]

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First published:

October 10th, 2024

Source:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RZEvk6cBtBg2mpgwS/trigger-warning-violence-animal-vs-human-welfare-sharing

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.