In episode eight of Back to Fundamentals,  Energy Aspects’ Head of Oil Products Rob Campbell is joined by Assistant Vice President of Oil Products Sandra Octavia and Oil Products Analyst Koen Wessels to discuss key recent developments in global oil products markets as well as our latest views across the barrel for the coming months.

 Freeze-offs in Texas have removed 3.24 mb/d of US refinery runs over 13–20 February, triggering a massive rebalancing process across the entire barrel—and especially within the gasoline markets—and impacting not just the Atlantic basin but the east of Suez as well. European runs will stay subdued in H1 21 on weak margins, while Asian products markets started the year on solid ground, earning strong margins for conversion units even as a colder-than-expected winter tightened the bottom of the barrel. We discuss these issues alongside developments in global vaccination programmes, improving Chinese export margins and strong conversion unit profitability, as well as these events’  impact on product supply, demand recovery and trade flows. 

In this episode of our Long-term podcast series, Trevor Sikorski, our Head of Natural Gas and Carbon, is joined by Long-term analysts Stefan Ulrich and Caroline Still to discuss the role played by natural gas and power in the energy transition over the next twenty years.

We expect global electricity demand to grow by an average of 2.6% annually over the next 20 years as electrification takes on the burden of decarbonisation while over a billion people join the middle class. Can renewable energy capacity additions alone meet the demands of this expanding power sector? What role will dispatchable thermal generation play as the share of renewables increases? While natural gas is displaced by electricity in several sectors, its role in power generation remains undisputable, especially in emerging markets. But as fossil fuel investments fall out of favour, there is a risk of a supply short fall before 2030.

We discuss where we think supply will most likely come from and how the gas balance will be strained over the forecast period.

 In episode seven of Back to Fundamentals, Energy Aspects’ Head of Power Peter Rosenthal is joined by North American Natural Gas Analysts David Seduski and Ashwin Ravichandran to discuss the recent freeze-offs and their impact on the US power and gas markets. 

Heating degree days throughout the US Midcontinent were significantly above normal levels during the week beginning 15 February, leading to five days of power outages in ERCOT and parts of the Southwest and Midwest power markets. The big freeze also led to gas supply curtailments that will take weeks (if not months) to recover from and were a major driver behind the multiple days of generation shortfalls in Texas. The near–record-low temperatures- in some cases a five-standard-deviation  departure from 10-year normal -will have a significant impact on short-term gas balances and will drive both market and policy results in power and gas over the next few months at least. 

In this episode of our Long-Term podcast series, Liz Russel, Head of Americas Sales, is joined by Head of Natural Gas Trevor Sikorski to talk about carbon.

Decarbonisation is all the rage in the global economy, and in more places across more sectors, policymakers are turning to carbon pricing as a tool to help meet their net-zero emissions goals. However, the fragmented nature of these markets and the real-world complications with implementing emissions pricing schemes mean setting a global price on carbon is far away.

Still, carbon markets like the EU ETS are catching the eye of investors that want to gain exposure to the energy transition, while ESG concerns are driving renewed interest in offsets. In this podcast, Liz and Trevor clear the air on the outlook for these markets.

In this episode of our Long-term podcast series, EA Founder and Director of Research Amrita Sen is joined by Head of Long-term Matthew Parry, Head of Natural Gas Trevor Sikorski, and Head of Oil Products Rob Campbell to discuss our long-term view of energy markets.

Energy markets are transitioning to cleaner fuels. The main changes in energy demand will come from greater electrification and the rapid uptake of renewables in power supply. Scale is the greatest hurdle facing the energy transition. Demand for none of the primary energies will peak in the next five years, with coal and oil demand only peaking in the late 2020s and early 2030s respectively. This underscores the challenge of sustaining economic growth while substituting energy output from existing sources and the need for market mechanisms such as the price of carbon to send the right signals for investment.