EA Podcast

In this episode of our Long-term podcast series Energy Aspects’ Chris Rivinus is joined by Head of Upstream, Virendra Chauhan, and Head of Geopolitics, Richard Bronze, to discuss the outlook for oil and gas supplies over the next two decades.

International oil companies are pursuing strategies to diversify away from oil and gas production, driven by investor pressure and the rise of the ESG agenda, leading them to scale back their upstream Capex and appetite for new projects, even in geologically promising territories. Even publicly-listed US shale producers are entering a new era defined by prudence and restraint rather than the headlong pursuit of higher volumes.

Where will the market find the supply needed to meet the post-pandemic demand recovery? We expect OPEC producers to increase their market share, but this is subject to political risks and depends on the capabilities of national oil companies. Even if these supplies do materialise, we see a supply crunch looming that will push oil prices higher.

In episode six of Back to Fundamentals,  Energy Aspects’ Head of Natural Gas and Carbon, Trevor Sikorski, and analyst Ben Lee discuss our outlook for European carbon markets in 2021 and beyond.

The EUA market has been volatile so far in 2021 and prices have hit record highs. We discuss our view that this speculator-driven rally in February will likely end with a retracement in prices in the short-term. But the upcoming review of EU ETS legislation later in 2021 means the bulls will never be far away.  We delve into our expectations of what changes the market will face in response to  the Green Deal.

High volatility is also likely to feature in the new UK carbon market, with trade set to begin before the end of Q2 21. We talk about why UK allowance prices should initially trade at a premium to EUAs.

In episode five of Back to Fundamentals, Energy Aspects’ Head of Research, Amrita Sen, is joined by Head of Oil Products, Robert Campbell, and Head of Geopolitics, Richard Bronze, to discuss what lies ahead for oil markets in 2021.

While demand may rise materially only by H2 21, the market will likely price in this development long before then. The first signs of this occurring are already visible, with Brent crude flirting with $60/bbl. Refining margins are also showing some signs of life—even if extremely modest—as conversion unit economics are strengthening.

Can this rally sustain? And will OPEC+ maintain its cohesion in the face of rising prices? Iran’s return in the second half of the year may cause markets to weaken momentarily, but the later that Iran supply returns, the easier it will be for the market to absorb it.

In episode four of Back to Fundamentals, Energy Aspects’ Head of Natural Gas, Trevor Sikorski, is joined by senior analysts, James Waddell and David Seduski.

We look at how the summer LNG market balance will evolve and what it means for Europe’s balances, as well as how Gazprom might flow over the summer given its low winter delivery. We also discuss what has lowered the Henry Hub curve and if it is sustainable, whether the Biden administration’s greater environmental focus will rein in supply, and where the volatile LNG freight market can go from here.

In episode three of Back to Fundamentals, Energy Aspects’ Head of NGLs, Samantha Hartke, is joined by oil products analyst, Ciaran Tyler, to discuss the feverish near-term dynamics that kicked off 2021’s LPG markets with a bang.

As the market undergoes some price corrections, we look at what awaits the March restocking period and discuss the risks to feedstocks and downstream petrochemical markets from ongoing—and possibly extended—lockdowns. We also look at the dominance of VLGC freight rates in dictating price action and how long that influence will last.

In episode two of Back to Fundamentals, Energy Aspects’ Founder and Director of Research, Amrita Sen, is joined by Head of Refining, Raul Alcamo, to discuss what awaits refiners in 2021. Refining margins have picked up in the new year but remain below breakeven levels in most parts of the world, particularly Europe. We see the need for greater rationalisation in Europe, especially as new Middle Eastern refineries start up. These new refineries will also reduce the export of heavy crudes at a time when further upgrades to Asian refineries will increase the demand for heavy grades. Even as mobility starts to increase in H2 21, the challenges facing refineries will be far from over. 

In episode one, Founder and Director of Research, Amrita Sen, is joined by Yasser Elguindi and Daniel Sternoff from our Macro Energy team to discuss what the macro backdrop means for energy markets, whether the recent jump in oil prices is justified, what a weaker dollar and easy monetary policy means for risk assets and what awaits us in terms of the COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Additionally, Daniel breaks down how the Democrats’ victory in Georgia opens the door for an ambitious tax, health, climate and infrastructure agenda.

In the forth episode of season two of Back to Fundamentals, we are pleased to have B Anand, CEO of Nayara Energy, join Robert Campbell (Head of Oil Products) and Raul Alcamo (Head of Refining) from Energy Aspects to discuss the challenges currently faced by complex refiners.

Mr Anand discusses the Indian oil market, how to manage a growth-oriented business amid the pandemic, and the way to plan for the future of refining amid tremendous change.

Join us next week for another episode of Back to Fundamentals, where we will be in conversation with another senior energy executive to discuss markets and the energy transition.