In this episode, Energy Aspects' Head of Power Peter Rosenthal, accompanied by Head of Natural Gas and Carbon Research Trevor Sikorski and Global Gas Analyst James Waddell, discuss several key themes influencing the global gas market over the next 12 months.

The traditional supports for global gas prices have given way this year, with European and Asian markets now governed by the economics of shutting in LNG production, mainly at US export facilities. In this podcast, we question whether this pricing reference has extended too far along the curve. TTF winter 2020–21 prices appear to be signalling both an increase in Europe’s appetite for US LNG and decrease in gas demand in Europe’s power sector.

We also explore the ways in which this year’s reconfiguration of LNG, oil and coal prices have affected Asia’s supply–demand balance. The incentives for taking oil-indexed LNG are changing, while LNG is also looking competitive in Asia’s generation mix for the first time. Finally, we discuss the timing and significance of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline coming online within the greater European market as this controversial project is increasingly being targeted by US sanctions.

Recent developments have increased the odds of a partial return of Libyan supplies, but the political situation remains fluid meaning any recovery is likely to be volatile. Looking further ahead, a Biden victory in the upcoming US presidential election could provide a catalyst to restart diplomacy with Iran. Negotiators are likely to seek a broader agreement than the previous Iran nuclear deal, which will be a slow process especially as Iran will want any new deal agreed by the US Senate.

Still, some waivers for Iranian oil exports granted at an early stage in the talks. This may complicate Saudi efforts to maintain cohesion and compliance among OPEC members with the OPEC+ agreement. Saudi Arabia may also have to face further erosion of the US-Saudi alliance, forcing it to reconsider its strategic approach to alliances in the Middle East.

In this episode, Energy Aspects' Head of Oil Products Research Robert Campbell discusses the outlook for oil products markets in 2021 with Head of Refining Raul Alcamo and Senior Oil Products Analyst Sandra Octavia.

Products markets will struggle in 2021 as refining capacity will continue to exceed demand, limiting the upside for margins. Additionally, jet fuel consumption is not going to return to pre-COVID-19 levels, adding further complications to the outlook.

The coming 18 months are likely to see increased refinery rationalisation, which will result in the long run in greater integration of oil products markets than before as longer-haul flows become more embedded in many markets, particularly Europe. But getting there may require enduring a bumpy road.

In this episode, two of our most senior analysts—Raul Alcamo and Amrita Sen—discuss the outlook for refinery margins, the challenges facing the entire refining landscape and the impact on crude differentials.

Thanks to the gradual recovery in demand, refining margins may have found a floor this year but as crude markets continue to tighten, the fight for barrels will mean refining margins will remain under immense pressure. 

Ultimately, over 5 mb/d of refineries will have to close with the brunt of the closures likely to be in Europe. Indeed, Europe will likely have to import the bulk of its products needs going forward.

Welcome to the first episode of Energy Aspects' Back to Fundamentals podcast series, which will explore different energy markets topics.

In this episode, three of our most senior analysts—Amrita Sen, Robert Campbell and Richard Bronze—discuss the launch of our 2021 oil market balances. As the market continues to grapple with the upheaval to both global demand and supply caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the early signs are that next year will bring a substantial tightening in market fundamentals, even with a slow and uneven recovery in global oil demand. Indeed, this is very much a supply-led rebalancing. 

This episode is complimentary for Perspectives subscribers.