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There are widely diverging views about the future of AI, and researchers are using a range of forecasting tools to bring more precision and accountability to this debate. Josh Rosenberg discusses results from a new longitudinal expert AI forecasting panel, conditional policy forecasts on how to reduce AI-bio and AI-cyber risk, and the latest findings on how AI-produced forecasts compare to superforecasters.

Josh is CEO of the Forecasting Research Institute, where he oversees research, strategy, and operations work to make forecasting more useful to decision-makers. Previously, he was a Senior Advisor and Senior Research Manager at GiveWell, where he spent seven years working in management, research, grantmaking, and hiring.

Learn more about effective altruism at: www.effectivealtruism.org
Find out more about EA Global conferences at: www.effectivealtruism.org/ea-global

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The EA community obsesses over cause prioritization, weighing malaria nets versus AI safety, global health versus animal welfare. Yet most EA grantmakers still leave significant impact on the table, applying less rigor to their grantmaking methodology and systems than to their cause area selection. This talk explores how a handful of heuristics can significantly increase the impact an EA grantmaker can have.
Joey Savoie is the co-founder of Ambitious Impact (AIM), an organisation combining rigorous research, philanthropic advising, and evidence-backed charity incubation to scale the most cost-effective solutions in global health and development and animal welfare. Through its grantmaking training programme, AIM equips philanthropists with the tools and skills they need to set up their giving for maximum impact. His newest project, Elevate Philanthropy, focuses on improving the efficacy of the philanthropy sphere.

Learn more about effective altruism at: www.effectivealtruism.org
Find out more about EA Global conferences at: www.effectivealtruism.org/ea-global

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Bruce Friedrich speaks about his new book 'Meat,' followed by a fireside chat with CEA's Fran Barclay.

Bruce Friedrich is founder & president of the Good Food Institute (GFI), a global science think tank focused on alternative meats. Climate charity evaluator Giving Green has selected GFI as a top climate charity each year for the past five years.

Publishers Weekly selected 'Meat' as one of the ten best new releases in science. The book is endorsed by father of synthetic biology George Church, Nobel Laureate in economics Michael Kremer, primatologist Jane Goodall, SciFi master Kim Stanley Robinson, bioethicist Peter Singer, and more. See MeatBook.org.

Learn more about effective altruism at: www.effectivealtruism.org
Find out more about EA Global conferences at: www.effectivealtruism.org/ea-global

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Grace Adams was donating and volunteering with a local homelessness charity, but she struggled to reconcile her focus on local causes with her belief that everyone in the world is equally important.

Then a colleague invited her to a talk by Peter Singer and Giving What We Can. Learning that some interventions can do a hundred times more good per dollar than others struck her immediately: "I had no idea the difference could really be that large. It really lit up something within me."

She shifted her giving to organizations focused on alleviating extreme poverty, dramatically increased how much she donates, and is now CEO of Effective Altruism Australia.

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This video is part of a series featuring leaders in the effective altruism movement sharing their personal journeys and the impact of their work.

Read/watch more stories: https://www.effectivealtruism.org/sto...

Learn more about effective altruism: https://www.effectivealtruism.org/

Learn more about the Centre for Effective Altruism: https://www.centreforeffectivealtruis...

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Marcus Davis grew up on the South Side of Chicago in a pretty rundown two-flat — with a mansion directly across the street. As a kid, the contrast seemed normal. It wasn't until his mid-twenties that he realized even that flat put his family in the 80-90th percentile of global income.

Marcus spent his early twenties in science and rationality discussion groups — people who debated how the world works but rarely tried to improve it. Then he read Peter Singer's Practical Ethics, and also learned about GiveWell. The concept of evaluating charities by how many people you can help per dollar clicked immediately.

He went on to co-found Charity Entrepreneurship, which helps people launch high-impact nonprofits. One organization they incubated, Suvita, has since sent 40 million vaccination text message reminders to parents — reaching about 1% of all newborn babies in the world and likely saving hundreds of lives each year.

Now he's CEO of Rethink Priorities, a research nonprofit whose work informs how foundations and policymakers direct resources toward maximum impact across global health, animal welfare, and strategic philanthropy.

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This video is part of a series featuring leaders in the effective altruism community sharing their personal journeys and the impact of their work.

Read/watch more stories: https://www.effectivealtruism.org/sto...

Learn more about effective altruism: https://www.effectivealtruism.org/

Learn more about the Centre for Effective Altruism: https://www.centreforeffectivealtruism.org/

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In a sector often paralyzed by incrementalism, GiveDirectly is testing an audacious hypothesis: can direct cash transfers end extreme poverty at national scale?

Join GiveDirectly’s President Nick Allardice as he shares hard-won lessons from operationalizing their ambitious bets.

Nick will dig into the technical details of what it actually takes to go from proven concept to massive delivery, drawing on lessons from nearly $1B in transfers already delivered.

Whether you're a charity founder thinking about scale, a researcher evaluating evidence, or wrestling with career decisions about which problems warrant your attention, this talk argues that moral ambition and operational realism must coexist.

Nick Allardice is President and CEO of GiveDirectly, which has delivered over $825 million in unconditional cash transfers to 1.6 million people living in extreme poverty. Before joining GiveDirectly, Nick spent a decade leading Change.org, scaling the platform to over 400 million users across 20 countries.

Learn more about effective altruism at: www.effectivealtruism.org
Find out more about EA Global conferences at: www.effectivealtruism.org/ea-global

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Devon Fritz is COO of Ambitious Impact, where he helps incubate charities that address some of the world's most neglected problems. Previously, he worked as a software engineer for private organizations and the US government.

Devon Fritz calls his twenties "the lost decade." He achieved his financial goals by the time he was 30, but felt aimless instead of free.

He was looking for work that combined rigorous thinking with meaningful action — a "Goldilocks solution" that married professional excellence with problems he actually cared about. But he couldn't find it in either the nonprofit or for-profit sectors.

In 2016, a friend suggested he attend the effective altruism conference in Oxford. He'd never been to a conference before, let alone flown to another country for one, but something felt compelling enough to go anyway.

When he arrived, he found exactly what he'd been searching for: well-founded philosophical ideas combined with people actually doing meaningful work in the world.

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This video is part of a series featuring leaders in the effective altruism community sharing their personal journeys and the impact of their work.

Read/watch more stories: https://www.effectivealtruism.org/stories

Learn more about effective altruism: https://www.effectivealtruism.org/

Learn more about the Centre for Effective Altruism: https://www.centreforeffectivealtruism.org/

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This is a reflections from Lumera's first 3 months.

Learn more about effective altruism at: www.effectivealtruism.org
Find out more about EA Global conferences at: www.effectivealtruism.org/ea-global

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This topic explores how Africa can achieve a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable food system by leveraging the power of evidence-based research, technological innovation, and forward-thinking policy frameworks. It highlights the urgent need to address challenges like food insecurity, post-harvest loss, and climate change, while also unlocking opportunities for youth engagement, agri-tech, value chain development, and cross-sector collaboration. The goal is to shift from subsistence to sustainability — ensuring that African food systems are not only feeding the continent but also driving economic growth and social equity.

Learn more about effective altruism at: www.effectivealtruism.org
Find out more about EA Global conferences at: www.effectivealtruism.org/ea-global

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This session explores practical strategies for developing, testing, and scaling solutions that work within the complexity of real-world public systems. Participants will learn how to design interventions that are not only innovative but also adaptable, data-informed, and context-sensitive.

Learn more about effective altruism at: www.effectivealtruism.org
Find out more about EA Global conferences at: www.effectivealtruism.org/ea-global