EAG Talks

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AI could enable a tiny group of humans, or just one human, to take over a country and even the world. This risk is ballpark similar probability to AI takeover, and would be similarly bad if it happened. But there's been significantly (10X) less effort to reduce it. This talk aims to raise awareness and understanding of the risk, and discuss counter-measures.Tom is a Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy He is currently working on assessing whether AI could lead to significant and long-lasting concentrations of power. Previously, he's worked on AI timelines (when AGI will be developed) and AI takeoff speeds (how rapidly AI capabilities will improve around the time of AGI). Prior to joining Open Philanthropy, Tom worked as a Data Scientist for education technology startup BridgeU and taught science at a UK comprehensive school. He has a Masters in Physics and Philosophy from the University of Oxford.

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Consciousness in contemporary or near-future AI systems is becoming a matter of practical concern. To make wise decisions about such systems, it will be important to have a model of their probabilities of consciousness and how those probabilities will change with new advancements.In this talk, Hayley and Derek will delve into an ongoing Rethink Priorities project: a framework for estimating the probability of consciousness in artificial systems. They will explore the critical challenges in evaluating AI consciousness and share the strategic decisions guiding their work.Hayley Clatterbuck is a Senior Researcher on the Worldview Investigations Team at Rethink Priorities and a Visiting Associate Professor of Philosophy at UCLA.Derek Shiller is a researcher on the Worldview Investigations team at Rethink Priorities, where he explores foundational questions ranging from digital consciousness to philanthropic decision-making. He holds a PhD in philosophy from Princeton University and has published work on topics in ethics and the philosophy of mind.

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Factory farming, the industrial-scale harming of animals raised for food, is arguably the greatest moral atrocity of our time. Every year, 91 billion land animals, 124 billion finfishes, and trillions of crustaceans are farmed globally, with the vast majority suffering from psychological and physical harms.Despite the “David and Goliath” nature of a $300 million global animal movement working to reform a $1.4 trillion industry, NGOs are creating and leveraging opportunities to advance welfare policies, build sustainable food systems, and prevent more harmful industries from emerging. This talk focuses on current and emerging leverage points for farmed animal welfare movement strategy.Zoë is the Director of Programs at Farmed Animal Funders, a donor learning community made up of foundations and individuals donating $250,000+ annually to end factory farming. Additionally, Zoë serves as a Fund Manager with the Effective Altruism Animal Welfare Fund. Previously, Zoë led an international team at Mercy For Animals in partnering with global food companies to develop meaningful farmed animal welfare policies.To support the wider animal protection movement, she has mentored and trained organizations around the world in corporate outreach techniques and strategy, and spoken at international animal protection and effective altruism conferences. She holds a Master of Food and Agriculture Law and Policy degree from Vermont Law School and a BA in Biology and Environmental Studies.

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In this fireside chat, Tom Davidson and William MacAskill will discuss whether AI could help a small group of humans seize power, how to get to the best possible future, and other neglected topics in AGI preparedness.William MacAskill is an associate professor in philosophy at the University of Oxford. At the time of his appointment, he was the youngest associate professor of philosophy in the world. He also cofounded the nonprofits Giving What We Can, the Centre for Effective Altruism, and 80,000 Hours, which together have moved over $300 million to effective charities. He’s the author of What We Owe The Future, Doing Good Better, and Moral Uncertainty.Tom is a Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy He is currently working on assessing whether AI could lead to significant and long-lasting concentrations of power. Previously, he's worked on AI timelines (when AGI will be developed) and AI takeoff speeds (how rapidly AI capabilities will improve around the time of AGI). Prior to joining Open Philanthropy, Tom worked as a Data Scientist for education technology startup BridgeU and taught science at a UK comprehensive school. He has a Masters in Physics and Philosophy from the University of Oxford.

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Policymaker decisions can be very consequential, and in recent years many have been interested in ensuring that these decisions are evidence-based. However, there are several barriers to evidence-based decision-making. This talk discusses barriers in generating evidence, interpreting evidence, and acting on evidence, drawing on work from several papers on stumbling blocks in the evidence-to-policy pipeline: "How Much Can We Generalize from Impact Evaluations?", "How Do Policymakers Update Their Beliefs?" (joint with Aidan Coville), "Local Knowledge, Formal Evidence, and Policy Decisions" (joint with Aidan Coville and Sampada KC).

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It's hard to know what to think about lots of foundational moral questions. As a result, it's hard to know how to prioritize among the various giving opportunities available to us. The goal of this talk is to show people how Rethink Priorities' Moral Parliament Tool can help you think through some of the tricky questions associated with building a giving portfolio under moral uncertainty.

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James Rayton, Giving What We Can's Head of Community, gives an inside view of their organisational strategy and a chance to feed into the thinking on how to achieve their bold plans for the future.

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A human challenge model (where volunteers are deliberately infected with a pathogen) may represent the only way to advance hepatitis C vaccine development in the foreseeable future. A foundational hepatitis C challenge study will likely begin in Toronto in 2025. This session discusses the proposed hepatitis C study, participation in a high-impact medical trials more generally, and some of the career paths in academia, government, public health, and medicine that intersect with such research.

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Nutrition International's Vitamin A Supplementation (VAS) program is a life-saving nutrition intervention that has reached more than 150 million children per year, with more than 10 billion capsules provided globally since 1998. It is both high impact and incredibly low cost. For the last two years, GiveWell has recommended a grant for Nutrition International's VAS program in Chad. Nutrition International is a global nutrition organization based out of Ottawa, dedicated to the fight against malnutrition.

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This talk discusses the relationships between two important cause areas: wild animal welfare and farmed animal welfare. The talk covera various considerations relevant to cause prioritization, but does not argue that one area warrants a higher level of priority than the other. Regardless of which area you work in, what matters most is doing activism that's sensitive to the impact that work in one area can have on the other