Omar Issa, ResiQuant (Co-Founder)/Stanford University

A study by FEMA suggests that 20-40% modern code-conforming buildings would be unfit for re-occupancy following a major earthquake (taking months or years to repair) and 15-20% would be rendered irreparable. The increasing human and economic exposure in seismically active regions emphasize the urgent need to bridge the gap between national seismic design provisions (which do not consider time to recovery) and community resilience goals.

Recovery-based design has emerged as a new paradigm to address this gap by explicitly designing buildings to regain their basic intended functions within an acceptable time following an earthquake.

This shift is driven by the recognition that minimizing downtime is critical for supporting community resilience and reducing the socioeconomic impacts of earthquakes. This seminar presents engineering modeling frameworks and methods to support scalable assessment and optimization of recovery-based design, including:

1. Procedures for selection and evaluation of recovery-based performance objectives and study the efficacy of user-defined checking procedures.

2. A framework to rapidly optimize recovery-based design strategies based on user-defined performance objectives.

3. Building technology to support utilization of these approaches across geographies and industrial verticals.

Together, these contributions provide the technical underpinnings and industry-facing data requirements to perform broad, national-scale benefit-cost analysis (BCA) studies that can accelerate decision-making and engineering intuition as resilient design progresses in the coming years.

Martijn van den Ende, Université Côte d'Azur

Already for several years it has been suggested that Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) could be a convenient, low-cost solution for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW). Several studies have investigated the potential of DAS in this context, and demonstrated their methods using small local earthquakes. Unfortunately, DAS has a finite dynamic range that is easily exceeded in the near-field of large earthquakes, which severely hampers any EEW efforts. In this talk, I will present a detailed analysis of the dynamic range, and how it impacts EEW: where does it come from? What can we do when the dynamic range is exceeded? And is there still hope for DAS-based EEW systems?

Sara Beth Cebry, U.S.G.S.

luid injection decreases effective normal stress on faults and can stimulate seismicity far from active tectonic regions. Based on earthquake nucleation models and measured stress levels, slip will be stable, aseismic, and limited to the fluid pressurized region—contrary to observed increases in seismicity. To understand how fluid injection effects earthquake initiation, rupture, and termination, I used large-scale laboratory faults to experimentally link effects of direct fluid injection to rupture behavior.

Comparison between the nucleation of dynamic events with and without fluid pressure showed that rapid fluid injection into a low permeability fault increases multi-scale stress/strength heterogeneities that can initiate seismic slip. Factors that increase the intensity of the heterogeneity, such as increased injection rate or background normal stress, promote the initiation of small seismic events that have the potential to “run away” and propagate beyond the fluid pressurized region.

Whether or not the seismic slip can “run away” depends on the background shear stress levels. When the fault was near critically stressed, dynamic slip initiated quickly after high fluid pressure levels were reached. The dynamic slip event propagated far beyond the fluid pressurized region. In comparison, when the fault was far from critically stressed, dynamic slip initiated hundreds of seconds after high injection pressures were reached and this event was limited in size by the region affected by fluid pressure.

We conclude that localized decreases in effective normal stress due to fluid pressure can initiate slip, sometimes seismic slip, but the background shear stress controls whether or not that slip and grows into a large earthquake.

John Rekoske, University of California San Diego

Rapidly estimating the ground shaking produced by earthquakes in real-time, and from future earthquakes, are important challenges in seismology. Numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation can be used to estimate ground motion; however, they require large amounts of computing power and are too slow for real-time problems, even with modern supercomputers. Our aim is to develop a method using both high-performance computing and machine learning techniques to obtain a close approximation of simulated seismic wavefields that can be solved rapidly. This approach integrates physics into the source- and site-specific ground motion estimates used for real-time applications (e.g., earthquake early warning) as well as many-source problems (e.g., probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). Specifically, I will focus this talk on applying data-driven reduced-order models (ROMs) that are based on the interpolated proper orthogonal decomposition method. I will discuss our work using ROMs to (1) instantaneously generate peak ground velocity maps and (2) to rapidly generate three-component velocity seismograms for earthquakes in the greater Los Angeles area. The approach is flexible, in that it can generate 3D elastodynamic Green’s functions which we can use to simulate seismograms for complex kinematic earthquake rupture models. Lastly, I will show how this approach can provide accurate, near-real-time wavefields that could be used to rapidly inform about possible earthquake damage.

Haiyang Kehoe, USGS

Seismograms contain information of an earthquake source, its path through the earth, and the local geologic conditions near a recording site. Ground shaking felt on Earth’s surface is modified by each of these contributions–the spatiotemporal evolution of rupture, three-dimensional subsurface structure, and site conditions all have a substantial impact on hazards experienced by exposed populations. In this talk, I highlight three studies that have improved our understanding of ground motion variability arising from source, path, and site effects. First, I describe the rupture process of the 2017 Mw 7.7 Komandorsky Islands earthquake, which reached supershear speeds following a rupture jump across a fault stepover, and demonstrate the enhanced hazard associated with supershear ruptures across Earth’s complex transform fault boundaries. Second, I compare high-frequency wavefield simulations of Cascadia earthquakes using various tomography models of the Puget Sound region, Washington State to highlight the role of basin structure on ground motion amplification. Third, I show horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio maps of the continental United States and emphasize the continued importance of region-specific constraints on site characterization. While each study demonstrates progress towards understanding the individual roles of source, path, and site effects on damaging earthquake ground motions, together they underscore distinct challenges for improving seismic hazard models and their uncertainties.

Tara Nye, USGS

Models of earthquake ground motion (both simulations and ground-motion models) can be likened to a puzzle with three primary pieces representing the earthquake source, site conditions, and source-to-site path. Early versions of these models were developed using average behavior of earthquakes across a variety of regions and tectonic environments. Although informative, such models do not capture the unique source, path, and site effects that are expected to have a significant influence on resulting ground motion. This talk highlights several approaches for improving modeling of ground motion by focusing efforts on the different pieces of the ground-motion puzzle. Segments of the talk include (1) constraining rupture parameters of rare tsunami earthquakes, (2) estimating site-specific high-frequency attenuation in the San Francisco Bay Area, and (3) investigating relationships between path effects and crustal properties in the San Francisco Bay Area. With continued refinement to models of ground motion, we can improve confidence and reduce uncertainty in seismic hazard and risk assessments.

Rashid Shams, University of Southern California

Site response in sedimentary basins is partially governed by mechanisms associated with three-dimensional features. This includes the generation of propagating surface waves due to trapped and refracted seismic waves, focusing of seismic energy due to basin shape and size, and resonance of the entire basin sediment structure. These mechanisms are referred to as basin effects and they lead to a significant increase in the amplitude and duration of the observed ground motions from earthquake events. Currently, ground motion models (GMMs) incorporate basin effects using the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m (V_S30), and the isosurface depths (depth to a particular shear wave velocity horizon, z_x). This approach captures site response features associated with the basin but uses parameters that are one-dimensional in nature and therefore are limited in their description of the lateral and other three-dimensional (3D) contributing effects. This work explores geometric features as predictive parameters in the development of region-specific models to improve the characterization of site response in sedimentary basins. In this work we constrained basin shape using depth to sedimentary basement (depth to a particular shear wave velocity horizon i.e., z_1.5 and z_2.3) and depth to crystalline basement (z_c,b) which are derived and validated using systematic exploration of geological cross sections and Community Velocity Model (CVM) profiles over Los Angeles Basin (LAB). Finally geometric parameters such as includes Standard deviation of zcb, Standard deviation of Absolute difference between z_1.5 and z_cb, distance from basin margin, and Spatial Area of Influence based on V_S30 are computed based on finalized shape. Residual analysis is employed to access derived geometric parameters for their ability to reduce bias and uncertainty in basin site response analysis.

Amy Williamson, University of California Berkeley

Alerts sent through earthquake early warning (EEW) programs provide precious seconds for those alerted to take simple protective actions to mitigate their seismic risk. Programs like ShakeAlert have been providing alerts for felt earthquakes across the west coast of the US for almost 5 years. Earthquakes are also one part of a multihazard system and can trigger secondary natural hazards such as tsunamis and landslides. However in order to be effective and timely, EEW and tsunami forecast algorithms must rely on the smallest amount of data available, often with variable quality and without analyst input. This talk focuses on potential advances to EEW algorithms to better constrain earthquake location and magnitude in real time, providing improved alerts, particularly in network sparse regions. Additionally, this talk highlights work using real time data to generate rapid tsunami early warning forecasts, its feasibility, and the benefit of unifying earthquake and tsunami alerts into one cohesive public-facing alerting structure.

James Biemiller, USGS

An unresolved aspect of tsunami generation in great subduction earthquakes is the offshore competition between coseismic deformation mechanisms, such as shallow megathrust slip, slip on one or more splay faults, and off-fault plastic deformation. In this presentation, we first review results from data-constrained 3D dynamic rupture modeling of an active plate-boundary-scale low-angle normal fault, the Mai’iu fault, that show how stress, fault structure, and the strength and thickness of overlying sediments influence shallow coseismic deformation partitioning in an extensional setting. Similar modeling approaches can shed light on shallow coseismic deformation in contractional settings, such as the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). Along the northwestern margin of the U.S., robust paleoseismic proxies record multiple M>8 paleoearthquakes over the Holocene, despite limited modern interface seismicity. Additionally, growth strata in the outer wedge record Late Quaternary slip on active landward- and seaward-vergent splay faults inboard of prominent variably-vergent frontal thrusts at the deformation front. The relative importance of megathrust vs. splay fault slip in generating tsunami hazards along the Pacific Northwest coastline is relatively unconstrained. Here, we develop data-driven 3D dynamic rupture models of the CSZ to analyze structural controls on shallow rupture processes including slip partitioning across the frontal thrusts, splays, and underlying decollement. Initial simulations show that trench-approaching ruptures typically involve meter-scale slip on variably oriented preexisting planar splay faults. Splay slip reduces slip on the subduction interface in a shadowed zone updip of their intersection, with greater splay slip leading to stronger shadowing. We discuss two structural controls on splay faults’ coseismic slip tendency: their dip angle and vergence. Gently dipping splays host more slip than steeply dipping ones and seaward-vergent splays host more slip than landward-vergent ones. We attribute these effects to distinct static and dynamic mechanisms, respectively. Finally, we show initial results from simulations with newly mapped frontal thrust geometries from CASIE21 seismic reflection data and discuss future directions for our CSZ dynamic rupture modeling project.

Jaeseok Lee, Brown University

Field observations indicate that fault systems are structurally complex, yet fault slip behavior has predominantly been attributed to local fault plane properties, such as friction parameters and roughness. Although relatively unexplored, emerging observations highlight the importance of fault system geometry in the mechanics governing earthquake rupture processes. In this talk, I will discuss how the geometrical complexities of fault networks impact various aspects of fault slip behavior, based on the analysis of surface fault trace misalignment. We discover that surface fault traces in creeping regions tend to be simpler, whereas those in locked regions are more complex. Additionally, we find correlations between complex fault geometry and enhanced high-frequency seismic radiation. Our findings suggest the potential for a new framework in which earthquake rupture behavior is influenced by a combination of geometric factors and rheological yielding properties.