Econoday Unplugged

December's employment report showed unexpected slowing in US wage growth despite high levels of employment, reviving questions over structural labor issues. In Europe, tentative signs may be emerging that the worst for the economy may be over, in turn raising new questions over the policy outlook for the European Central Bank and other central banks as well.

Our panel discusses the global outlook for early 2020 and 2020 as a whole, whether recession or economic improvement is in store and what the different paths would mean for both monetary and fiscal policy. Wage inflation, its global absence and the chances of its emergence, is a special theme of the discussion.

Exceptional strength in the new home market headlines a batch of strong US economic data that, however, still leave questions over manufacturing. In the UK and Europe, data are also improving but are nevertheless still flat, conditions that put into focus the guarded policy stances of the Bank of England and European Central Bank.

Whether it's the Fed or the Swiss National Bank or the ECB, no action is the outlook as central bankers step back and wait for prior cuts to lift growth. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss German production and the question of industrial recession, and also Christine Lagarde's leadership and its implications for monetary policy and whether the ECB will be buying bio bonds.

Our panel updates the latest from the reserve banks of Australia and India as well as the Swiss National Bank and US Federal Reserve. Data effects of the Japanese tax hike and GM labor strike are also touched upon as are possible sterling ramifications from various outcomes of the UK election.

A lift underway for US housing could, for fourth-quarter GDP, cushion the risk of further erosion in US manufacturing. In Europe, Germany avoided recession in the third quarter, but just barely, while PMI flashes out on Friday will update progress, if any, Europe has made so far in the fourth quarter. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the general outlook for inflation and the latest election developments in the UK and what they mean for Brexit.

Downside risk is the theme as Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss upcoming industrial production reports from the US and China as well as already released reports from Europe. Pending GDP data of Germany are also in focus as is an unusual policy split at the Bank of England where, despite an official bias toward tightening, votes for rate cuts have suddenly emerged.

Whether the Bank of Japan or the Reserve Bank of Australia or the US Federal Reserve, central banks have been busy either cutting rates or talking about cutting rates. Our panel also discusses the latest economic developments out of Hong Kong as well as sagging indications on US consumer spending, and of course the latest twists on Brexit and the UK general election.

A heavy week of US data that include GDP and employment will likely turn instead on the uncertain outcome of Wednesday's policy meeting amid good reasons on both sides, whether to cut or not to cut rates. In Europe, initial October data have not been pointing to any economic lift with third-quarter GDP data expected to prove no better than flat.

For an indication on future business investment, the Federal Reserve, which meets next week, will be focused squarely on capital goods data in Thursday's durable goods report. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender then turn their attention to the economic, financial and also political ramifications of Brexit and Parliament's vote to accept in principle Boris Johnson's plan for Northern Ireland.