Econoday Unplugged

Up-and-down reports on progress in US-China trade talks and a burst of positive news on a Brexit deal raise questions over their economic and financial market implications. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the latest data and what to expect for pending reports, including US retail sales and European GDP.

Rate cuts in reaction to stubbornly low inflation are the trends right now in Asia and also the US. Industrial slowing if not recession in Germany and the risk of spillover to the rest of Europe are questions for the European Central Bank. Along the way our panel discusses China's reaction to Hong Kong unrest, political polarization and related market effects in the US, and the latest details and outlook on Brexit.

Diffusion indexes, whether from the Institute For Supply Management or Markit Economics, take on special importance during times of possible economic shifts. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the history and methodology of these reports and consider what they may be saying about the future direction of definitive economic data.

Lack of cash in the banking system together with Federal Reserve policy dissension underscore the unfolding effects of accelerating fiscal debt. Also discussed are the latest updates on Brexit and their immediate and future implications for the pound.

How the Federal Reserve frames Wednesday's rate decision will be key to whether and by how much US rates can be expected to move lower in the months ahead. The outlook for the Swiss franc and the risk that it could move higher will be the chief concern for the Swiss National Bank and the outcome of their meeting on Thursday. Policy settings for the Bank of England and Bank of Japan as well as an assessment of last week's European Central Bank decision are also discussed.

Thursday's decision by the European Central Bank will precede a sweep of other central bank meetings including the Federal Reserve next week. Jeremy Hawkins breaks down the details of possible policy outcomes amid easing expectations for the extent of new ECB stimulus.

Asian central banks are either cutting rates or pointing that way, while in the US an unexpected drop in ISM manufacturing points squarely at a September 18 rate cut by the Federal Reserve. For Brexit, our panel host Jeremy Hawkins isolates the key issues and outlines the unfolding strategies.

From cross-border trade to Brexit, Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender assess the rising intensity of global risks and their unfolding impact on currencies especially the Swiss franc and the yen. Global central bank policies are discussed as are the latest economic data including US employment.

Coordinated rate cuts are falling in place with the Federal Reserve, despite strong consumer spending, expected to act this week followed by the European Central Bank in September. For the UK, rising chances for a hard Brexit are raising questions over the Bank of England's path while for Japan, maximum easing is promised.

Competitive rate cuts are one theme in this week's discussion which starts with the Bank of Japan and whether it needs to hold down the yen, then the European Central Bank and the nuts and bolts of how it will shape its coming announcement, and wind up with the Federal Reserve which, as it is about to prime the pump, is a facing wall of improving economic data.