In Episode 106 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but powerful number from the latest economic data: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has slipped to 2.23 percent. While the CPI and PCE indexes still show sticky price pressures, the breakeven—a market-implied inflation expectation—has been edging down since spring. Lucas explains how the breakeven is calculated from Treasury and TIPS yields, and why it matters more than the CPI headline to the Fed's forward guidance. The hosts also connect the trend to the cooling labor market, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 57,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.2 percent. They explore what falling inflation expectations mean for the Fed's rate path and for bond investors. A focused, data-rich conversation anchored to July 10, 2026, that helps listeners understand one of the most closely watched signals in macro markets.

#BreakevenInflationRate #TenYearTreasury #TIPS #CPI #CorePCE #FederalReserve #InflationExpectations #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #LaborMarket #NonfarmPayrolls #UnemploymentRate #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #PodcastEpisode106

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Lucas and Luna unpack a curious market signal: corporate bond spreads are tightening even as GDP growth moderates and the labor market shows cracks. With the S&P 500 at 7,544 and job creation slowing to just 57,000 in June, bond markets seem to be pricing in a different reality. Lucas dives into the mechanics of credit spreads, the role of the Fed's rate path, and why investors are piling into investment-grade debt despite a 4.2% unemployment rate and falling labor force participation. Luna pushes back on whether spreads are complacent or rational. The conversation centers on the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index spread, which has compressed to 98 basis points, near post-pandemic lows. They discuss what that means for the economy, whether it's signaling a soft landing, and how listeners can watch spreads as a leading indicator. A data-rich episode for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves in mid-2026.

#CorporateBondSpreads #CreditMarkets #FixedIncome #SoftLanding #FederalReserve #InvestmentGrade #BondMarket #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #RiskOn #Liquidity #GDPGrowth #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Inflation #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed has shifted its focus from headline CPI to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate as a better gauge of long-run inflation expectations. Using the latest data from July 2026—where breakevens have held steady at 2.25% while CPI ticked up to 334.0—they explain how this metric filters out transitory noise and signals whether the market trusts the Fed's path. The hosts also connect breakevens to the puzzling jobs market, where payrolls rose just 57,000 yet the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%. With the yield curve steepening and capacity utilization inching up, they debate whether the economy is in a soft landing or a false calm. A focused, number-driven conversation for anyone who wants to read the macro data like a professional.

#Fed #Inflation #BreakevenRate #CPI #10YearTreasury #MonetaryPolicy #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #SoftLanding #JobsReport #Unemployment #YieldCurve #CapacityUtilization #Powell #FOMC #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a key tension in today's macro data: CPI is running at 4.3% annualized over the past three months, but the Fed's preferred gauge — core PCE — is hovering just above 2.5%. They explain the structural differences between the two measures (CPI weights housing more heavily; PCE accounts for substitution effects), and walk through what the May 2026 data tells us about where inflation really stands. They also connect the dot to the bond market: the 10-year breakeven rate at 2.25% suggests traders trust the PCE story more than the CPI scare. A focused, number-driven conversation for anyone trying to read through the headline noise.

#CorePCE #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #BreakevenRate #EconomicIndicators #May2026Data #SubstitutionEffect #HousingCosts #MonetaryPolicy #RealRates #FexingoBusiness #EconomicsPodcast #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #PriceIndex #ConsumerSpending

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In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilization—a leading indicator that often signals a turning point in the economy months before GDP data confirms it. Using the latest May 2026 data showing utilization at 76.2%, they explain why this number matters, how it connects to business investment and inflation, and what it tells us about the current cycle. With the yield curve steepening and the 10-year breakeven rate rising, capacity utilization offers a real-time check on whether the economy has room to run or is tapping the brakes. No jargon, just the signal.

#CapacityUtilization #LeadingIndicators #GDP #BusinessCycles #IndustrialProduction #Inflation #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicators #Manufacturing #Investment #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #June2026 #May2026 #YieldCurve

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In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why the PCE price index, not CPI, is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Using fresh data from July 2026 — including a 131.5 PCE reading and a 2.25 percent breakeven rate — they break down how consumer spending patterns, substitution bias, and service-sector costs shape monetary policy. Lucas explains why the core PCE matters for rate decisions, while Luna questions whether the Fed's focus on PCE is outdated given new spending trends. Tune in to understand how this indicator affects your portfolio and mortgage rate outlook.

#PCEPriceIndex #CorePCE #Inflation #FederalReserve #ConsumerSpending #EconomicIndicators #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #BreakevenRate #RealGDP #BusinessInventories #ServiceSector #Economics #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #2026Economy #InflationGauge

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In this milestone 100th episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a subtle but crucial shift in how inflation is measured. They explain why the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE price index over the more familiar CPI, and why that difference matters for your portfolio. Using the latest data — CPI at 334.0, Core PCE at 130.1, and the 10-year breakeven at 2.25% — they walk through the 'substitution effect' and 'weighting' quirks that make PCE the Fed's true north. If you've ever wondered why inflation headlines and your wallet don't always match up, this episode gives you the framework to understand the gap.

#PCEPriceIndex #CorePCE #CPI #InflationMeasurement #FederalReserve #SubstitutionEffect #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #MonetaryPolicy #RealGDP #BreakevenInflation #FOMC #BureauOfEconomicAnalysis #BureauOfLaborStatistics #PersonalConsumptionExpenditures #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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In episode 99 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which just hit 2.24 percent. They explain how this market-based inflation gauge works, why it matters for Fed policy, and what it signals about growth expectations in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.52 percent and core CPI still sticky at 336.1, the hosts explore whether breakevens are sending a reliable signal or noise. They also tie in the latest jobs data, with payrolls growing only 57,000 in June, and discuss how the labor market softening might affect inflation expectations. Plus, a brief listener-support segment tied to the value of making sense of economic data. Focused, specific, and grounded in current numbers.

#BreakevenInflation #10YearTreasury #CPI #FederalReserve #InflationExpectations #BondMarket #TIPS #RealYield #NominalYield #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #LaborMarket #NonfarmPayrolls #June2026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Podcast

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In Episode 98, Lucas and Luna unpack capacity utilisation—a leading indicator that often signals GDP shifts before the headline number does. With the latest reading at 76.2 percent, just above the pre-pandemic average, they explore why this metric matters for the second half of 2026. Lucas traces the history from the 1970s to the 2008 recession, showing how capacity utilisation peaked before each downturn. Luna challenges whether structural changes in the economy—like the rise of software and services—make the old rules less reliable. They reference the latest industrial production index (102.6) and recent payrolls data to ground the discussion. The episode also includes a brief, sincere segment on listener support that keeps the show ad-free.

#CapacityUtilisation #GDP #LeadingIndicators #IndustrialProduction #FederalReserve #BusinessCycle #MacroEconomics #EconomicsData #RecessionSignal #Podcast #EconomicIndicators #Manufacturing #FedPolicy #2026Economy #LaborMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconPodcast

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With the S&P 500 near record highs and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.2 percent, you'd expect markets to be calm. But Lucas and Luna dig into a less-watched signal: the corporate bond spread. Investment-grade and high-yield spreads have been widening quietly since May, even as stocks rally. They discuss why bond markets sometimes sniff out trouble before equity markets do, what the spread between BBB-rated debt and Treasuries is priced at right now, and how this divergence has historically preceded slowdowns. Drawing on data from July 2026, they connect the dots between falling payrolls growth, flat breakeven inflation, and the message from credit markets. A compact guide to reading the bond market's warning lights without getting lost in jargon.

#CorporateBondSpreads #CreditMarkets #BondMarket #RiskOnRiskOff #InvestmentGrade #HighYield #BBBRatedDebt #TreasuryYields #YieldSpread #MacroData #Economics #Business #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #MarketSignal #FixedIncome

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