In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the capacity utilization rate — currently at 76.1% — and what it tells us about the risk of recession in mid-2026. They explain how the Fed watches this number for slack in the economy, why it's been stuck below 80% for over a year, and how it connects to falling inventories and sticky core inflation. With real GDP growth at just 2.1%, they unpack why capacity utilization might be a more honest signal than GDP or unemployment. If you've ever wondered how economists spot a downturn before it hits, this episode gives you the one number to watch.

#CapacityUtilization #RecessionWatch #FedPolicy #IndustrialProduction #BusinessInvestment #Manufacturing #EconomicIndicators #GDP #CoreInflation #Inventories #SupplyChain #LaborMarket #MonetaryPolicy #MacroData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsShow #July2026

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Episode 124 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into the surprising rise in total business inventories, which hit $2.736 trillion in May 2026, up from $2.728 trillion in April. While headlines focus on slowing growth, Lucas and Luna unpack what the inventory build really means—suggesting businesses are restocking cautiously rather than signaling demand weakness. They connect the dots to the recent import price spike (Chinese goods at highest since 2008) and the World Cup boost to bars and restaurants, questioning whether the consumer is truly flashing warning signs or just shifting spending. A fresh take on a classic economic signal, grounded in the latest data.

#Inventories #BusinessInventories #SupplyChain #EconomicIndicators #GDP #ConsumerSpending #ImportPrices #WorldCupEffect #Restaurants #Retail #WholesalePrices #FederalReserve #RecessionSignals #MacroData #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna

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In Episode 123 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising data point: total business inventories rose in May 2026, but the pace of restocking is lagging behind sales. Using the latest numbers—inventories at $2.736 trillion versus a 2.1% annualized GDP growth rate—they explain why the inventory-to-sales ratio matters more than the absolute level. They explore what this means for Q3 growth, manufacturing demand, and the risk of a sudden restocking boom that could mislead policymakers. If you've ever wondered why economists obsess over warehouse shelves, this episode makes it click.

#BusinessInventories #GDPGrowth #SupplyChain #MacroData #EconomicIndicators #InventoryToSalesRatio #WholesaleTrade #Manufacturing #Restocking #Q32026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #DataDriven #LucasAndLuna #IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #ConsumerDemand

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Lucas and Luna dig into the July 2026 business inventories data to explain why falling stock-to-sales ratios are a more nuanced signal than many assume. They break down how inventory cycles have historically preceded recessions and recoveries, distinguish between planned destocking and forced liquidations, and tie current inventory trends to consumer demand signals and industrial production. Using specific data points from the latest economic reports, they show listeners how to interpret inventory changes as a leading indicator of GDP growth. A concrete, actionable episode for anyone trying to read the macro tea leaves.

#BusinessInventories #InventoryCycle #MacroEconomics #GDP #SupplyChain #StockToSalesRatio #IndustrialProduction #ConsumerDemand #RecessionSignals #LeadingIndicators #EconomicData #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #July2026 #DataDriven #PodcastEpisode

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Episode 121 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: wholesale prices fell 0.3% in June on a steep drop in gasoline, yet import prices just posted a surprise gain — with costs of goods from China hitting their highest since 2008. They unpack how the two measures differ, what the data says about supply-chain pressures and domestic demand, and why the Fed might be more worried about imported inflation than the headline CPI suggests. Along the way they discuss the World Cup boost for bars and restaurants, the recent dip in CPI to 332.6, and what the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.24% implies for inflation expectations. A concise guide to reading past the headlines in mid-2026.

#ImportPrices #WholesalePrices #CPI #Inflation #ChinaTrade #FedPolicy #SupplyChain #WorldCup #ConsumerSpending #BreakevenRate #GasolinePrices #Economics #EconomicIndicators #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData #ServicesInflation

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In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilization—an often-overlooked leading indicator that can flag a turning point before GDP does. With the latest data showing utilization stuck at 76.1 percent, they explore why this level historically signals trouble, how it connects to business inventories and the Fed's rate decisions, and what it means for investors and job seekers in mid-2026. Along the way, they reference the recent surprise in wholesale prices and the sticky services inflation that keeps the Fed cautious. A concrete look at one number that tells a bigger story.

#CapacityUtilization #EconomicIndicators #LeadingIndicators #RecessionSignals #FederalReserve #Inflation #GDP #IndustrialProduction #BusinessInventories #WholesalePrices #ServicesInflation #MacroData #EconomicOutlook #Investing #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroEconomics

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Industrial production rose to 102.6 in May, up from 102.5, and capacity utilization ticked up to 76.2%. But the headline masks a split: manufacturing output is being propped up by aerospace and defense, while consumer-driven sectors like apparel and furniture are contracting. Lucas and Luna examine why the industrial production index matters for real GDP growth, how inventory cycles amplify the signal, and what the divergence between factory output and consumer spending says about the economy in mid-2026. Fresh angles include the role of reshoring and federal investment in semiconductor plants, and a level-set on why this indicator matters for bond markets.

#IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilization #Manufacturing #GDP #EconomicGrowth #FederalReserve #InventoryCycle #Reshoring #Aerospace #Semiconductors #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #EconomicIndicator #BusinessCycle #SupplyChain #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Lucas and Luna drill into the industrial production index, a less-hyped but vital economic indicator. With the index at 102.6 and capacity utilisation at 76.2% as of May 2026, they explore what factory output and slack tell us about GDP momentum and inflation. They discuss why the 2.1% real GDP growth rate feels underwhelming despite positive headlines, and how industrial production offers a real-time check on whether that growth has legs. The hosts also unpick the recent decline in wholesale prices alongside sticky core inflation, using industrial capacity as a lens to understand the disconnect. Expect specific numbers, a walk through the Fed's Beige Book reference to World Cup effects, and a clear takeaway on why production data matters more than most realise for the second half of 2026.

#IndustrialProduction #CapacityUtilisation #GDP #Inflation #CoreCPI #FederalReserve #Manufacturing #SupplyChain #WholesalePrices #EconomicIndicators #MacroData #BusinessCycle #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #IndustrialOutput #FactoryOutput #ProductionData

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Lucas and Luna dig into the latest CPI data released July 14, 2026, which showed consumer prices rising 3.5% annually, below expectations. They focus on the big story beneath the headline: energy prices fell sharply, but core services inflation remains stubborn. Using the Fed's Beige Book mention of a World Cup boost to bars and restaurants alongside consumer warning signs, they ask whether the soft-landing narrative is holding up. Specific numbers discussed include CPI at 332.6, core CPI at 336.1, and the 10-year breakeven rate at 2.23%. The hosts explore why the market rallied on the print and what it means for the Fed's next move.

#CPI #Inflation #July2026CPI #CoreCPI #ServicesInflation #SoftLanding #FederalReserve #10YearBreakeven #ConsumerSpending #WorldCup #BeigeBook #EnergyPrices #EconomicData #FOMC #Disinflation #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising June wholesale price decline announced on July 15, 2026, and what it tells us about where inflation is really headed. With producer prices falling 0.3% month-over-month, the duo explores why consumer prices rose 3.5% annually—less than expected—and what this divergence means for the Fed's next move. They dig into the role of gasoline volatility, services inflation, and the bond market's reaction as the 10-year breakeven rate sits at 2.25%. If you've ever wondered why the Fed focuses on PCE over CPI, or why wholesale and retail prices don't move in lockstep, this episode offers a clear, data-driven breakdown. No hot takes—just the numbers and what they imply for your portfolio and the economy through mid-2026.

#ProducerPriceIndex #WholesalePrices #CPI #CoreInflation #GasolinePrices #ServicesInflation #FedPolicy #BreakevenRate #BondMarket #TenYearTreasury #EconomicIndicators #June2026 #InflationTrends #PortfolioStrategy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroData

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