The bond market is again at odds with the Federal Reserve’s forecast for interest rates, placing nearly 50% odds of a rate cut at the September policy meeting as investors believe the Fed will be cutting rates as the economy falls into recession. However, the equity market continues be quite resilient in the face of rising recession headwinds. Nationwide’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic, and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan provide their outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy and its impact on financial markets.

The consumer price index showed further signs of cooling in March, led by declining prices in grocery stores and at the gas pump. But it was not all good news as services inflation remains high and could keep some cost increases elevated for consumers into 2024. Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers shares his analysis of the March CPI report. Ben also explains supercore inflation and its impact on Fed policy. [NFM-22911AO]

Nationwide Market Insights (NMI)for Q2 is now available, featuring commentary and insight into the economy and financial markets. NMI's author, Nationwide’s Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan, highlights key pages and provides additional perspective. To view or download the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast, visit nationwidefinancial.com/economics. [NFM-22911AO]

The banking industry has experienced several challenges recently, causing ripple effects in the financial markets and the overall economy. What contributed to the recent challenges in the banking industry? What are the short-term and long-term impacts? Nationwide’s Scott Murray and Artur Piper provide their analysis of these recent challenges and the potential economic and financial market impacts. [NFM - 20130AO.74]

At the outset of March's FOMC meeting, there was speculation that the Fed would pause rate increases, especially with the current banking crisis. However, at the conclusion of the meeting, Chairman Powell announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates — the ninth consecutive increase of this tightening cycle. How are markets reacting to this news? What impact are these rate increases having on inflation and the overall economy? And what is our outlook for a potential recession? Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan provide their analysis of the FOMC's announcement and potential economic and financial market impacts. [NFM-20130AO.73]

Inflation remains the hot topic as price pressures for consumers remain sticky in many categories - especially food prices. What did we learn from today's CPI report? Did February continue January's hotter trend for inflation? How could the Fed react to the latest inflation data? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook on inflation with a focus on rising food prices. [NFM-20130AO.72]

With high service costs keeping inflation elevated, the exceptionally tight labor market will be a key swing factor for the Fed this year. Demand for workers continues to run at a fever pitch despite much higher borrowing costs for businesses and rising concerns for a recession. Nationwide’s Deputy Chief Economist, Bryan Jordan, and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the path forward for the labor market and its potential impact on the economy. [NFM - 20130AO.71]

Is the economy heading for a soft landing, a hard landing, or no landing at all? How could the financial markets be impacted under the different landing scenarios and what are they telling us now? Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic, and Nationwide's head of fixed income, Brad Beman, provide their outlook on the different landing scenarios and the potential market impact. [NFM-20130AO.70]

Last year the housing market was pummeled by the sharp rise in mortgage rates. Demand conditions still look quite dour in 2023, especially with loan rates projected to remain higher for some time. Can we expect housing activity to bottom out soon? What could that mean for home values? Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook on the housing sector, sharing their analysis of market conditions as we head into the spring selling season. [NFM - 20130AO.69]

With the Q4 earnings season largely completed, earnings growth looks to be down around 5% y/y - the first decline on a year-on-year basis since Q3 2020. (FactSet) Is this a harbinger of further earnings declines ahead? What does this mean for the equity market? The slowing in inflation has moderated. What does that indicate about pricing power within different sectors? And how will the Fed react? [NFM-20130AO.68]