Economy Guy

Shrinking?  How can that be?  Ask the millennial who are postponing their child  production years.  Europe is getting ready for elections and everything is up for sale - Scotland nearly missed another independence election call.  Will N Ireland follow Scotland?  France is up for grabs in next year's election.  Spain has just opened up, and everyone is partying.

The markets basically went sideways last week, and politics ruled the world.  In France, the French military warned the French government to get their act together and solve the problems of the country (or else!!!)  China is explained as the most dangerous country in the world today, and why.  

The US 10 Year Treasury is at a critical technical position right now and will either rebound (higher interest rate), or fall to lower interest rates.  The former is probable.  The US Dollar fell against most currencies about 1% and represents a major move this last week.  Will the US Dollar continue falling now that it has tested recent high values?  Transitory Inflation is discussed in depth - so the influence of future inflation is more fully understandable.

The CPI came in greater than anyone expected.  This week I explore the meaning of inflation to stocks and bonds.  I look at the definition of inflation, and try to bet a good gut understanding of inflation - so you can make sense of it in the future.  A hypothetical example of the company, DolarTree, is used to show the effect inflation can have on a company.  (How about you personally?)  The FED's mindset abut inflation is explained - and questioned.

The war drums are beating in Ukraine.  Will Russia or China take advantage of the turmoil in the world?  How much electricity is Bitcoin costing the world today - and every day?  What lessons can we learn from the Archegos disaster - and how was this allowed to happen?  Could it have taken down the banking system?

Happy Easter.  It was a sideways market most places last week.  The US economy is strong and getting stronger as the economy opens up.  Many technologies will change the face of the world and fortunes will be made in them.

Several housing tidbits were covered in the US housing market this week.  A large cargo ship has blocked the Suez Canal - so what?  What shares should you buy, and do you know how to analyze them?  How much debt is too much debt?  How much is the current US administration planning on spending - and is it more than the total wwII debt?

Crises are upon us around the world - hyperinflation in Lebanon, nuclear warhead count in the UK, pandemic numbers in Europe, and (not the least) FED predictions of the future.  I give a lesson in "compound interest."  Warren Buffett gives his wisdom about the markets today and the poor state of retirees.  Ray Dalio gives his concern about the $75T US debt market.

A big change in the mortgage market will affect the mortgage rate second home and vacation home rates.  How does the gold market work - here is my own ideas after decades of observations.  Does the FED use bad data to determine inflation?  Is better data available, but won't be used due to human frailties?  What does the ever increasing 10 Year Treasury rate mean for you?

A unique perspective of the influence of the 10 Year Treasury Bond yield on ALL other markets is presented.  The market action for the week was reviewed.  Many interesting tidbits in the economic news were reviewed including the massive outflow of Euros from Germany caused by negative interest rates.  FIVE broken system used within the US economic system were highlighted.  And the 6 precursors to a stock market crash were reviewed.