Emerson College Polling Weekly | 2018 Mid-Terms

5 battleground polls & Prof. Kimball 2018 midterm predictions

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With the Midterm Elections less than a week away, Emerson College Polling is monitoring 12 states this week. 

Kansas

• USC
  • 2nd district: Steve Watkins (R) 48%, Paul Davis (D) 41%, 8% undecided
  • 3rd district: Sharice Davids (D) 55%, Kevin Yoder (R-inc) 43%, 1% undecided
• Governor
  • Kris Kobach (R) 44%, Laura Kelly (D) 43%, Greg Orman (I) 8%, 4% undecided

Ohio

• Governor
  • Richard Cordray (D) 49%, Mike Dewine (R) 46%, 3% undecided
• US Senate
  • Sherrod Brown (D-inc) 49%, Jim Renacci (R) 43%, 3% undecided

Texas

• US Senate
  • Ted Cruz (R) 50%, Beto O’Rourke 47%, 2% undecided

Oregon

• Governor
  • Kate Brown (D) 47% v. Knute Buehler (R) 42%

Connecticut

• Governor
  • Ned Lamont (D) 46%, Bob Stefanowski (R) 39%, 5% undecided

Maine

• Governor:
  • Janet Mills (D) 50%, Shawn Moody (R) 42%, undecided 4%
• USC:
  • 2nd District: Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 46%, Jared Golden (D) 47%, undecided 4%

New Hampshire

• USC:
  • 1st District: Chris Pappas (D-inc) 48%, Eddie Edwards (R) 46%, undecided 5%
• Governor:
  • Chris Sununu (R-inc) 51%, Molly Kelly (D) 43% , undecided 5%

Tennessee

• US Senate
  • Marsha Blackburn (R) 52%, Phil Bredesen (D) 44%, 3% undecided

• Governor
  • Bill Lee (R) 54%, Karl Dean (D) 41%, 3% undecided

West Virginia

• US Senate
  • Joe Manchin (D-Inc) 47%, Patrick Morrisey (R) 42%, 8% undecided
• USC
  • Carol Miller (R-inc) 52%, Richard Ojeda (D) 45%, 3% undecided

Gary Johnson and the Libertarian miracle: Is it on the brink in New Mexico? Good news for Democrats across the board in Emerson Polling’s New Jersey, Michigan and New Mexico polls.  IG/Twitter: @EmersonPolling

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Voters in New Jersey, Michigan and New Mexico are being called this week. New Mexico and Michigan each have two statewide races, and New Jersey only has one statewide election. Voters in Michigan are also being asked their thoughts on marijuana, Flint and redistricting.

NJ Senate: Bob Menendez (D-inc.) | Bob Hugin (R)

MI Governor: Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc.) | Bill Schuette (R)

MI Senate: Debbie Stabenow (D-inc.) | John James (R)

NM Governor: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) | Steve Pearce (R)

NM Senate: Martin Heinrich (D-inc.) | Mick Rich (R) | Gary Johnson (Libertarian)

Democrats expect big gains in California.  New e-Poll shows huge leads in US Congress generic ballot and Gavin Newsom for Governor.  But what about Senator Dianne Feinstein?

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The Senate race in California gives Republicans an opportunity to cast a protest vote for a Bernie-supported Democrat against the incumbent Senator Dianne Feinstein (D). Feinstein, who was first elected in 1992, faces State Senate Majority Leader Kevin de León, who has been pushing the race to the left. 

The Republicans have a hold on the statewide races in both Nevada and New Hampshire. Democrats have their eyes on the first district of New Hampshire in the race for an open seat between Chris Pappas (D) and Eddie Edwards (R).

NV Statewide Results:

Dean Heller (R-inc): 48% | Jacky Rosen (D): 41%

Adam Laxalt (R): 46% | Steve Sisolak (D): 41%

NH Statewide Results:

Chris Sununu (R-inc): 51% | Molly Kelly (D): 35%

...

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Democrats seem to be losing a grip on being able to take back the United States Senate.  Latest Emerson College e-Poll has data on #NVSen between Dean Heller & Jacky Rosen.  Also: #NVGov, #NHGov & US Congressional races in all districts in New Hampshire & Nevada.

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The Senate Race in Nevada is the only Republican-held Senate seat up for election in a state that Hillary Clinton won. The first district of New Hampshire is history in the making with either the first openly gay representative from that district, Chris Pappas (D), or the first black representative, Eddie Edwards (R). 

TX Senate: Ted Cruz (R-inc.) 47% | Beto O'Rourke (D) 42%

TX Gov: Greg Abbot (R-inc.) 53% | Lupe Valdez (D) 33%

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Ted Cruz is on the move in Texas in the latest Emerson College e-Poll.  Prof. Spencer Kimball breaks down how Cruz was able to make this charge and if O’Rourke has peaked.

BONUS: National poll on a universal basic income and whether US tax dollars should pay for tuition free college.

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Emerson poll finds that the Kansas second and third congressional districts are competitive with potential Democratic upsets. Paul Davis (D) from the second district and Sharice Davids (D) from the third are both in the lead but within the margin of error. 

Kansas Gov: Kris Kobach (R)-37%, Laura Kelly (D)-36%, Greg Orman-9%, Undecided-15%

Kansas 2nd: Paul Davis (D)-35%,Steve Watkins (R)-31%

Kansas 3rd: Sharice Davids (D)-47%, Kevin Yoder (R-inc)-41%

Texas Senate: Ted Cruz (R-inc) v Beto O'Rourke (D)

Texas Governor: Greg Abbott (R-inc) v Lupe Valdez (D) 

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