US retail sales and industrial production data for September tell different stories. Retail sales were surprisingly good, probably because the US economy continues to add jobs. However, US industrial production declined, indicating that the manufacturing sector lacks the same buoyancy as the retail sector. The answer seems to be that US consumers are buying imported items, which feeds the Trump campaign slogan about raising import tariffs.

SA’s retail sales for August were stronger than generally expected, and over the past six months the retail sector is showing improvement, despite high interest rates and unemployment. Relief from load shedding may have encouraged more retail activity, as well as the lower inflation rate, especially cheaper fuel. The latest data does not reflect the cash injection from the two-pot system and the recent interest rate cut, which should give local retailers a good end-of-year season.

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