Energy Week

China to inject $174 billion of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-inject-174-billion-liquidity-073630793.html
- markets are having a mixed reaction
- big sell off on Chinese market when it opened despite attempt at China to prop up market

A Tale of Two Oil Giants With Two Strategies That Aren’t Working
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-01/tale-of-two-oil-giants-with-two-strategies-that-aren-t-working?
- Exxon vs. Chevron: two different strategies. Chevron pursuing austerity. Exxon spending on cap ex.
- Q4 2019 earnings are not really the determinant of which strategy was the right one to pursue. We won’t know for 5-10 years.
- Jim Cramer says he’s “done with fossil fuels. They’re done.” At the same time as he uses fossil fuels in his daily life.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-heated-oxford-education-11580680180

Amid global turbulence, Saudi Aramco weathers January better than industry peers
https://amp.arabianbusiness.com/amp/article_listing/aben/stocks/439089-amid-global-turbulence-saudi-aramco-weathers-january-better-than-industry-peers?
- Aramco isn’t trading like an IOC

Saudi Arabia still pining after Manchester United purchase, reports
https://amp.arabianbusiness.com/amp/article_listing/aben/sport/439094-saudi-arabia-still-pining-after-manchester-united-purchase-reports?
- Is MbS a huge ManU fan?
- is this even helpful for PIF’s goal?

Saudis Weigh Large Oil Cuts in Response to Coronavirus
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/saudis-mull-drastic-oil-cuts-in-response-to-coronavirus-11580728630
- market doesn’t care
- trading off of demand not supply
- Is OPEC risking writing itself into a corner by reacting to falling price with emergency cuts that don’t really raise prices?

Citi sees oil plunging as much as $18 on Coronavirus fears
https://business.financialpost.com/investing/citi-sees-oil-plunging-as-much-as-18-on-coronavirus-fears?
- Citi revises its oil price forecast DOWN by $10-$18 per barrel.
- Brent could go as low at $47/barrel predicts Morse
- How China handles the post-Coronavirus will play an important role in oil market recovery.

Don't count out ethanol this election season
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/iowa-view/2020/01/31/ethanol-thriving-four-years-after-supposed-iowa-caucuses-demise/2858941001/
- Tom Harkin was the last Democrat to win the Iowa Causes and not become the nominee.

Joe Biden Does Not Support a Fracking Ban - Rep. Conor Lamb and Harold Hamm on the politics of oil and natural gas drilling.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-does-not-support-a-fracking-ban-11580670403?mod=opinion_major_pos16
- will voters see fracking in the same way as democrat politicians in states that benefit from fracking do?
- States like Pennsylvania might benefit a lot from natural gas fracking but voters might not realize or care about the benefits the state has derived from this.

Ryan’s Iowa Prediction: Bernie Sanders wins the Iowa Caucus but doesn’t win the nomination.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

New York Times Western Pennsylvania podcast episode - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-swing-issue-that-could-win-a-swing-state/id1200361736?i=1000463544308

How the stock market has performed during past viral outbreaks, as epidemic locks down 16 Chinese cities
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/6A955A3E-3D43-11EA-A3B8-BC9F4A046959?
- check out charts showing market and other epidemics
- But do these epidemics REALLY impact the market?
- SARS 2003 coincided with invasion of Iraq and H1N1 2009 coincided with housing market bust

Oil drops below $60 as China virus stokes demand concern
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-drops-below-60-as-china-virus-stokes-demand-concern-idUSKBN1ZQ02Z
- China may just continue with its policy of importing into storage

OPEC eyes deeper cuts to head off impact of China virus: source
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012720-saudi-arabia-ready-to-support-oil-market-as-china-coronavirus-spreads-minister?
- If OPEC says it will continue cuts through end of 2020 now does that really mean anything?

In Crucial Pennsylvania, Democrats Worry a Fracking Ban Could Sink Them
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/us/politics/pennsylvania-democrats-fracking.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
- Fracking provides $$ for the state and democrats get to distribute that, but what do voters think?

Dr. Dean Foreman with API - API Monthly Statistical Report
- More refining and petrochemical expansions
- Exports of 9 million bpd = crude oil + products. Record despite the fact that products side is down. Crude oil exports up even before US-China trade deal
- despite slowing drilling activity, production is up
- Seasonality aside this is a trend driven by strong production growth but should expect growth to slow and inventories to normalize in future
- Increase in US crude exports due to IMO 2020 can’t be correlated for sure, first quarter data will show more.
- Dearth of buying from China due to trade negotiations. US was finding other markets for US crude oil and other products across Asia, Latin America, etc.
- Details of US-CHina Phase one trade deal show that China will commit to purchasing US “energy” includes: coal, products, crude oil, etc. really is a $52 billion commitment over 2 years. What does this mean for the economy?
- 1/2 million to 1 million more barrels per day. LNG increases too.
- Mix of refined products that China buys from US are heavy on naphtha and propane. These are sold at a discount to crude oil. So crude oil is the product that can really move the needle.
- But US can only export so much crude oil.
- Shipping implications of this for Panama Canal. Don't let more than 4 LNG ships through locks at one time.
- Logistical implications of how the market will sort out the transportation issues of all of this.
- Natural gas market broken? Actually its the largest in the world. Not broken. 45 years of nat gas on record for Henry Hub - lowest prices.
- DUCs down by 10%
- Gasoline deliveries diverged regionally: seeing changes over time. More decline in urban and less in rural. Gasoline demand decreased but reformulated gasoline decreased more and conventional gasoline increased. Pretty strong given the trade and agriculture downturn this past year.

Catch Dr. Foreman at the Argus Crude Oil Summit on Feb 5!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Texas Oil and Gas Podcast with Anas Alhajji - https://www.spreaker.com/episode/21676729

Crossing the Chasm - https://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-3rd-Disruptive-Mainstream/dp/0062292986/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=Crossing+the+Chasm&qid=1579620229&sr=8-2

EcoCities in China - https://www.mnd.gov.sg/tianjinecocity/progress

No turning point in sight as IMF predicts sluggish global growth
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-imf/no-turning-point-in-sight-as-imf-predicts-sluggish-global-growth-idUSKBN1ZJ1H3
- Fed finally admitted that they were doing QE
- Investors concerned, why is Fed keeping economy going?
- IMF sees growth at 3.3% for 2020 which is slightly below October projections
- 2021 growth forecast at 3.4%
- Revises China’s growth upwards due to Phase One trade deal but U.S. growth not updated because of it.

Libya’s Oil Output Grinds to Halt as Berlin Peace Talks Conclude
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/libya-biggest-oil-field-starts-144025815.html?
Libya faces major oil output shutdown as export blockade begins
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/011820-libya-faces-major-oil-output-shutdown-as-export-blockade-begins?
- Libya produces 1.11 mbpd according to Platts
- Export blockade, not production stoppage
- Will it end when the storage tanks are full?
- 800,000 bpd coming off the market but going into storage
- probably not a long-term issue, though Brent crude went up 1.8%

Iraqi Oil Field Halts as Reform-Driven Protests Escalate
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iraqi-oil-field-halts-reform-212250959.html
- Al Ahdab oil field which produces 70,000 bpd was down because security guards seeking permanent oil contracts blocked access to the field
- American companies have abandoned Iraq. Will they ever return? I think not.

Saudi energy minister: We want sustainable oil prices
https://uk.reuters.com/article/saudi-oil-prices/update-1-saudi-energy-minister-we-want-sustainable-oil-prices-idUKL8N29I1C5
- March OPEC meeting looks unlikely due to lack of information
- Oil production will be at 9.744 mbpd says Saudi oil minister

McDermott International may file for bankruptcy as soon as next week
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdermott-international-may-file-bankruptcy-180011083.html
- Received delisting warning on Friday, December 13th.

Why OPEC Is A Classic Cartel And Could Regain Its Power Over Oil Markets
https://www.investing.com/analysis/why-opec-is-a-classic-cartel-and-could-regain-its-power-over-oil-markets-200499152
- OPEC might not be a very effective cartel today, but its purpose is still to restrict production in order to increase prices. Just because OPEC doesn’t always do this, doesn’t mean its not a cartel.

Unplanned outages at North American refineries hit five-year high: data
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/unplanned-outages-at-north-american-refineries-hit-five-year-high-data?
- Could this impact refineries utilization in 2020?
- Could be result of delayed maintenance?

Car buyers shun electric vehicles not named Tesla. Are carmakers driving off a cliff?
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-01-17/ev-sales-fizzle
- So many car makers are committing to building so many electric vehicles but who is going to buy them? Apparently not Americans. Americans aren’t interested in EVs that aren’t Tesla.
- Meanwhile Tesla’s stock is the highest ever
- How much money will car companies lose over this strategy?

Check out Ellen’s latest on Forbes:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2020/01/20/3-reasons-typical-equity-analysis-doesnt-work-for-saudi-aramco/

Ellen’s guest podcast appearance on EPLPod: http://eplpod.libsyn.com/would-it-be-cool-if-crown-prince-of-saudi-arabia-mohammed-bin-salman-bought-manchester-united

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

This week, we have on Robbin Goodman and David Firestein, director of business affairs and president/CEO at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations. David and Robbin talk to us about phase one of the US-China trade deal, why it's important, and what we can expect to see moving forward.

Ellen on Twitter - @EnergzdEconomy

Xinhua News - http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/

David on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-firestein-5a336a18/

David on Twitter - https://twitter.com/david_firestein

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

This week, we bring in 2020 by talking with Rob George, one of our lawyer friends. Rob Comes on to talk with us about ExxonMobil's recent win in court over a climate change case in New York, how that came to be, and what it means for the oil and gas industry.

Connect with Rob on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/robgtexas/

Find Rob on Twitter - @RobGTexas

Buy your Polar Plunge t-shirt: https://texasoilandgaspodcast.com/plunge

Follow the Texas Oil and Gas Podcast on Twitter - @TOGPodcast

Connect with Josh on LinkedIn - https://texasoilandgaspodcast.com/connect-with-josh

Connect with Ryan on LinkedIn - https://texasoilandgaspodcast.com/connect-with-ryan

The Texas Oil and Gas Podcast on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/35588693/admin/

We're looking for a new sponsor! Get in touch with us TODAY for a proposal - [email protected]

Leave a 5 star rating and review! - http://apple.co/2mkM3AS

Contact the show via text or voicemail - (318) 599-9192

Visit our website - http://www.texasoilandgaspodcast.com/

Buy Ryan's book - https://amzn.to/2CBOtAo

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

This week, we conclude 2019 with our last show of the year, featuring Dan Steffens and Joe Dancy. Dan and Joe talk to us about oil prices, completions, and their predictions for 2020.

Dan's piece on $100 oil - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-OPEC-Deal-Was-The-First-Step-To-100-Oil.html

EPG online - https://energyprospectus.com/

Connect with Dan - https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-steffens-22471910/

Connect with Joe - https://www.linkedin.com/in/joe-dancy-8069637/

Buy your Polar Plunge t-shirt: https://texasoilandgaspodcast.com/plunge

Help get Carl Icahn on the Texas Oil and Gas Podcast! - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ryanraysr_texas-oil-and-gas-podcast-on-apple-podcasts-activity-6566108936435486720-2t0t

Connect with Josh on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-shelton-55925288/

Connect with Ryan on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanraysr/

The Texas Oil and Gas Podcast on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/35588693/admin/

We're looking for a new sponsor! Get in touch with us TODAY for a proposal - [email protected]

Leave a 5 star rating and review! - http://apple.co/2mkM3AS

Contact the show via text or voicemail - 318-599-9192

Visit our website - http://www.texasoilandgaspodcast.com/

Connect with Ryan - http://bit.ly/2lLX1uh

Connect with Josh - http://bit.ly/2W90Mgr

Buy Ryan's book - https://amzn.to/2CBOtAo

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

This week, Josh, Ryan and Nate gear up for the holidays by telling you to go and give us just a few more five-star ratings and reviews. We then pivot to talking with Sergio Chapa about 2019 in review -- the top drillers in Texas, top producing companies, and top producing wells. We also bring on Joe Dancy for part 1 of 2 of an interview on the state of the industry in both regulation and production.

Find Sergio on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/sergiochapatexas/

More from Sergio on 2019 in review - https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Oilfield-service-sector-closing-year-with-14917123.php

Connect with Joe on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/joe-dancy-8069637/

Buy your Polar Plunge t-shirt: https://texasoilandgaspodcast.com/plunge

Get Nate wet:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6593170169638502401

(But don't, actually -- get all of your friends to review the show and get Ryan and Josh wet, too.)

Help get Carl Icahn on the Texas Oil and Gas Podcast! - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ryanraysr_texas-oil-and-gas-podcast-on-apple-podcasts-activity-6566108936435486720-2t0t

Connect with Josh on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-shelton-55925288/

Connect with Ryan on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanraysr/

The Texas Oil and Gas Podcast on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/35588693/admin/

We're looking for a new sponsor! Get in touch with us TODAY for a proposal - [email protected]

Leave a 5 star rating and review! - http://apple.co/2mkM3AS

Contact the show via text or voicemail - 318-599-9192

Visit our website - http://www.texasoilandgaspodcast.com/

Connect with Ryan - http://bit.ly/2lLX1uh

Connect with Josh - http://bit.ly/2W90Mgr

Buy Ryan's book - https://amzn.to/2CBOtAo

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Aramco IPO update

Oil prices near three-month highs on US-China trade deal
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/oil-markets-us-china-trade-deal-in-focus.html

US and China reached a trade agreement, but some key details are still unclear
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/us-and-china-reached-a-trade-agreement-but-key-details-still-unclear.html

U.S. top trade negotiator praises deal, China remains cautious
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/us-top-trade-negotiator-praises-deal-china-remains-cautious-idUSKBN1YJ0GL

How are markets taking it? Markets are liking it.
WTI is up just over $60 finally
Market has been waiting on the trade deal - so now that its done the market is waiting to see when the economic indicators will start to show positive news.
When do we see the impact in agriculture?

Shale Slowdown Takes Economic Toll
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shale-slowdown-takes-economic-toll-11576405800
- shocker! (Not)
- rents declining in Midland, hotel prices declining
- despite record amounts of crude production
- But, if we don’t keep drilling, oil won’t keep producing
- ancillary jobs get lost in economic indicators
- rent prices might be better indicator of what’s going to happen with economy.

Investors Doubt OPEC Cuts Can Boost Oil Prices
https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-doubt-opec-cuts-can-boost-oil-prices-11576501200
- presuming compliance
- Will only have 1 or maybe 2 months of compliance data for OPEC when meet again in March.

Preview of API Monthly Statistical Report with Dr. Dean Foreman
- The greatest petroleum demand for months of November at 21 million barrels of oil per day
- Demise of oil and gas is way overstated. Huge increase in jet fuel and in refining and petrochemicals
- reflective of underlying strengths in US economy and dependence on liquid fuels in US and the lifestyle
- Prices are also down. Win for industry and win for consumers.
- Are the DUCs keeping production up? Backlog is one source, as we get new infrastructure that is bringing new production on the market. But also productivity is solidly rising. And decline rates of legacy production have continued not to be nearly as much as people thought in general. Barnett Shale is perfect example.
- US production = DUCs + productivity + less decline rate than expected
- More DUCs coming online in Anadarko region than in Permian.
- How far can we go with production continuing to grow but drilling down? Lots of expectation that production is going to decline, but EIA forecasts that production will continue to grow for next 3 quarters. Is there someone wrong with the EIA modeling? Or is it reality?
- Down 670 DUCs according to EIA.
- Where do the productivity increases come from? Digitalization, realtime learning, better targeting, improving recovery factors relative to resources. Increasing lateral lengths has had a huge impact. A well isn’t just a well anymore. Fewer holes in the ground with greater productivity potential. Costs also go down with this.
- So much of the innovation comes from oil and gas service sector - many have become commodities s, almost as fast as they come out.

- How long will it take for trade deal to filter into economic indicators? Should take several months.
- De-escalation on industrial side but agriculture is most effected.
- Trade deal really should help agri-business, according to the farmers.
- Good sign that despite record petroleum product production we still have stocks.
- Seasonality in regional divergence of gasoline. More growth in rural than in urban. Change in agriculture.
- Conventional gasoline is almost twice the volume of reformulated gasoline!
- Strong states getting stronger. On demand side its a regional story. Eastern seaboard is strongest area of growth. Midwest down, California down but Rocky Mountain is up.
- IMO2020 compliance explains some of the seasonal variance in residual fuel oil

API Monthly report - https://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/apis-economic-industry-outlook

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

OPEC’s Decision To Cut Production Is A Risky One, Here’s Why
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/12/06/opecs-decision-to-cut-production-is-a-risky-one-heres-why/#433968ad662d
- Risky because if it doesn’t support oil prices then OPEC will seem weak and ineffective.
- Cut for the first quarter.
- Saudi oil minister basically said that shale oil should thank them for the decision to cut oil production and that its a Good Friday for Texas and Oklahoma

OPEC, Allies Finalize Deeper Oil Production Cuts
https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-allies-finalize-deeper-oil-production-cuts-11575644555
- Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that “Aramco will be higher than the $2 trillion, and [the press] can bet this will happen.”
- Angola stormed out of the meeting, but later returned.

Oil slips as weak China exports highlight trade war impact
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/09/oil-markets-china-exports-in-focus.html
- data showed Chinese exports declined for a 4th straight month and oil prices declined on this news.
- African swine fever (ASF) in farms in China is impacting Chinese pork farming in China.
- Trump tweets: We are dong well with China in our trade deal

https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/global-threat-african-swine-fever

On Price Predictions:
Goldman Sachs says oil prices are going nowhere next year (from Oct 23)
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/oil-prices-goldman-sachs-says-brent-futures-are-going-nowhere-in-2020.html

Goldman raises 2020 oil price view on OPEC-led inventory tightness (from today)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-research-goldman/goldman-raises-2020-oil-price-view-on-opec-led-inventory-tightness-idUSKBN1YD0IZ

- revising Goldman Sachs oil price forecast - now up to $63.00/barrel

Aramco IPO

The $26 Billion Question and What Else to Expect in Saudi Budget
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-09/the-26-billion-question-and-what-else-to-expect-in-saudi-budget
- Budget deficit at 6.4% of GDP
- 2020 economic growth expected to be 2.3% (2019 economic growth only 0.4%)
- 10% of expenditures covered by $29

Saudi Aramco’s IPO value rises to $29.4 billion: Banker
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/2019/12/09/Non-Saudi-institutional-investors-allocated-23-pct-of-Aramco-IPO-Banker.html#.Xe50Xi395ZI


https://thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/heavy-smoke-from-train-derailment-stops-highway-16-traffic
- Canada needs more pipelines because transporting oil by rail car is dangerous.

- Catch Ellen on Bloomberg TV Wednesday morning and also on TRT World, Money Talks

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

This week, Ryan and Nate spent some time discussing Ryan's visit to China. Check it out here!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com