Energy Week

IMO 2020 "best ever" from Energy Week: https://www.spreaker.com/user/9550540/energy-week-65

Saudi energy minister suspects Iran exports more oil than market believes
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/051919-saudi-energy-minister-suspects-iran-exports-more-oil-than-market-believes
- Most interesting point to come out of the recent OPEC JMMC meeting. Al Falih believes here is more Iranian oil on the market
- Could this impact the decision that OPEC/OPEC+ makes in June? It could also be a reason to support the rollover of the production restraint agreement

Iran's crude exports slide to 500,000 bpd or less: sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-oil-exports/irans-crude-exports-slide-to-500000-bpd-or-less-sources-idUSKCN1SN2G4
- This could be what Falih was talking about at the JMMC meeting, or he might be smaller operations.
- Iran has plenty of stored oil near China that it can access that was exported there last year but didn’t clear customs.

Who gets Venezuela's oil?
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/16/americas/venezuela-oil-debt-opinion-intl/index.html
- Russia and China (which are receiving debt payments in oil) are interested in keeping Maduro in power so they can receive their debt repayments
- If Maduro is overthrown will the debt be cancelled out?

IMO 2020 Insights: check it out!

Volkswagen’s New Battery Plant Could Be A Game Changer In Electric Vehicle Strategy
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/05/15/volkswagens-new-battery-plant-could-be-a-game-changer-in-electric-vehicle-strategy/#23ce37e51df7
- the more companies making electric vehicle batteries, the more potential there is for battery innovation
- this is a limited factor for electric vehicle adoption, but perhaps if more people are making proprietary batteries there will be innovation.

Tesla Falls as Analyst Says Company Facing ‘Code-Red Situation’
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-falls-analyst-says-company-135920655.html
- Tesla stock went below $200 and analyst called Tesla in a code red situation
- The problem, he said, is that Musk is focused more side projects like insurance and robotaxis instead of trying to build demand for the Model 3.
- Could this be just a regular correction? Where should Tesla stock really be valued?

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Tankers "sabotaged" in the Persian Gulf
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-oil-tankers-attacked-before-entering-persian-gulf-11557725971
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-prices-up-as-middle-east-tanker-attacks-heighten-supply-concerns-idUSKCN1SJ012
Was this an “on purpose” accident designed to stir up trouble? Or was it a delicate act of sabotage by Iranians? Al Qaeda? Some people out in little boats joyriding? Could this be Iran testing the waters to see what the U.S. will do with just a tiny bit of provocation? In the end, trade news subsumed everything and oil prices fell.
Check here for more updates:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/05/13/confusion-over-sabotaged-tankers-in-persian-gulf-roils-oil-prices/

Tesla Raising Money
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/business/tesla-stock-fundraising.html
https://www.ccn.com/elon-musk-loads-up-tesla-stock-but-carmakers-worst-enemy-is-tesla-itself-morgan-stanley
The media finally might be coming around to the fact that Tesla’s got problems. But do the Tesla-lovers? Media and analysts who weren’t critical deserve blame, not just Elon Musk

And how could we not...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/elon-musk-tesla-car-inspired-baby-names-2018
Would you name your child Tesla?

API Monthly Statistical Report, interview with Dr. Dean Foreman
- builds in U.S. inventory? Increase in Iranian oil imports pre-sanctions waiver expiry likely played into this, along with growing U.S. production.
- Jet fuel demand: a lot of planes were grounded and cancelled flights after Boeing 737 Max. Airlines have taken older planes and put them back into service. These planes use more fuel. Demand for travel remaining relatively strong.
- Consumers are voting their pocketbook and continuing to spend money traveling
- April saw strong consumer driven gasoline demand but declining distillate demand from industry. Will this turn into a trend? Seasonality- we are stocking up and changing over to reformulated gasoline for summer. Also embedded in jet fuel issue. Easter fell a bit later and that was a factor in the April numbers.
- China raising tariffs on LNG exports from U.S. from 10% to 25%. Immature market compared to oil market. So much of LNG exports from U.S. go to China. Need to have a trusted trade relationship to underpin multi-billion trade contract.
- U.S. oil exports to Asia very diversified - China is only one destination among many. India is a huge importer. As long as there is global demand, barrels have to come from somewhere. Barrels are essentially interchangeable within quality. LNG isn’t like that. Market that is growing in large chunks for the first time. Depends on unities investing in infrastructure that they need to use the natural gas.
- LNG industry is looking at several trade offs. Permitting has finally moved forward, and now the financing and contracts are the issue. Sending LNG to Asia is a financial negotiation now. Europe is a good option though - Germany is now looking to diversify off of Russian gas and may look to import American LNG. This is gas on gas competition because they take Russian and African gas and other domestic sources of gas. Demand isn’t growing rapidly there like it is in Asia.
- Refinery capacity utilization: April was on the low end (only 88%). This time last year, very low averages now sitting at about 1 million bpd in outages. This is more normal and last year was out of the norm. This could also be because refineries can’t use their Cokers and crackers because they aren’t getting enough heavy crude due to the sanctions on Venezuela.

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US Commerce Sec says US can’t ensure cheaper oil to India
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-india-trade-oil/us-commerce-secretary-government-cannot-ensure-cheaper-us-oil-sales-to-india-idUSKCN1SC0PP
India is being pushed by the U.S. to cut imports from Iran and Venezuela, and India is looking for a deal. Wilber Ross said that the United States can’t arrange any special conditions for India. But could they? Perhaps offer incentives to companies to export to India?

US sends aircraft carrier to Middle East
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-48173357
What’s going on the Middle East? Tensions escalating? Sending air craft carriers to the region to counter a “credible threat.”

Egypt warns Turkey not to drill in eastern Med
https://ahvalnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/ahvalnews.com/east-mediterranean/egypt-warns-turkey-against-drilling-e-mediterranean?
Egypt and Cyprus have an agreement for natural gas drilling but Turkey says it doesn’t recognize this and wants to drill for natural gas in areas that it says belong to the Turkish Republic of Cypus

Belarus doesn’t know when Russia will be able to supply clean oil
https://uk.reuters.com/article/russia-oil-exports/belarus-does-not-know-when-clean-russian-oil-flows-to-europe-will-resume-source-idUKL5N22I29T
More on Russian oil contamination https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/05/05/russia-contaminates-its-oil-and-is-finally-forced-to-cut-production/#4048ffc069e3

There a lot more to this contaminated oil situation then just getting clean oil to flow - where to put all the contaminated oil that’s still coming through before the clean oil can come through.

Oil prices slump after Trump's tariff threat against China
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-prices-slump-after-trumps-tariff-threat-against-china-idUSKCN1SC00P
- will anyone run on Trump’s failure to get a deal done with China, especially if he keeps raising tariffs before the 2020 election?

Buffett says Occidental Petroleum investment is a bet on oil prices over the long term
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/buffett-says-occidental-petroleum-investment-is-a-bet-on-oil-prices-over-the-long-term.html
“It’s also a bet on the fact that the Permian Basin is what it is cracked up to be,” - Warren Buffet
Buffet looking at oil demand long-term and sees it going up and to the right.
Occidental has agreed to sell of Anadarko’s African assets to Total
$10 billion backing from Buffet
$8 billion from Total
Anadarko’s assets are perfectly positioned for both Occidental and Chevron. Other companies might not be to well positioned.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/investing-in-saudi-arabia-risks-with-investing-2019-4-1028166314

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Connect with Sarp on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarpozkan/

DrillingInfo.com - https://info.drillinginfo.com/

Occidental and Anadarko
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-anadarko-petrol-m-a-occidental-exclus/exclusive-anadarko-to-pursue-deal-talks-with-occidental-petroleum-sources-idUSKCN1S5043
Occidental was vying for Anadarko before Chevron made deal to buy Anadarko, but now Anadarko is entering into negotiations with Occidental.
Sources say Chevron will be allowed to match a deal made with Occidental but if Chevron loses out in the end then Anadarko will have to pay Chevron $1 billion
Where does this leave either company? Will the loser look for a consolation company to buy?

Russian oil contaminated
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/25/russia-oil-germany-and-poland-suspend-imports-via-russian-pipeline.html
Germany, Poland, Belarus, Czech Republic halted imports from Russia through Druzha line because of contamination, also several tankers of contaminated crude left Baltic port
700,000 bpd of oil impacted - contaminated with organic chloride, a chemical that is used to boost production but has to be separated from the crude before transporting it because it can damage refining equipment
Clean oil expected to have started flowing April 29 - loss can be made up in about 3 days.

Trump on defending Saudi Arabia
https://dailycaller.com/2019/04/27/trump-losing-ass-defending-saudis?
Trump compares Saudi Arabia to a delinquent tenant
It’s going to be a battle of perception - whether or not Trump can portray the Saudis as subservient to him vs. whether Khalid al Falih can convince world (and especially OPEC) that Saudi oil production serves no one but Saudi interests first.

Trump V OPEC and oil prices
https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-saudi-officials-havent-spoken-with-trump-about-oil-prices-11556304536
In that ongoing battle, Trump said he “called up OPEC” to bring down oil prices. This comment send oil prices down on Friday, but then OPEC Sec. General and Saudi oil minister countered by saying neither of them has spoken to Trump about oil prices. (Trump may have been referring to King Salman?)
Question is - how long can this back and forth go on before traders stop paying attention to it?

Interview with Sarp Ozkan, Director of Energy Analysis at Drilling Info - IMO 2020 report
https://info.drillinginfo.com/blog/imo-2020-potential-impacts-and-coker-refinery-case-study/
Jan 1, 2020 important date for all ships because IMO asking all ships to reduce sulfur content in fuel from 3.5% to 0.5%.
THere are 3 ways: lower sulfur fuels (likely most chosen route), installing scrubbers on ships, switching to alternative fuels (requires retrofitting)
Refineries will be impacted the most, will have to change the way they refine heavier crude oils that have a lot of sulfur to get the sulfur content in fuel down.
Refineries in the U.S. are most impacted because they are complex and have coking units. Refineries abroad will have to use lighter crude oil.
Refinery margins will be impacted - whenever refineries change from their usual crude there is a loss in efficiency. Refineries will have higher gasoline yield instead of distillate. But distillate has better margins.
But US refineries will be able to make more distillate.
Will we see even higher oil exports from the US because foreign refineries will want to purchase lighter crude? We might see some producers in the US realize an uptick in price relative to the benchmark crude.
The U.S. will likely continue to export heavier crude because their units can produce more distillate because that will go into the bunker pool. U.S. refineries will stay spected the way they are because they can deal with this change. Refineries abroad aren’t ready to deal with very very light shale crude.
CNG is a fuel under consideration, as well as nuclear. Those are the two alternative fuel options. But its basically like building a new fleet. Switching cost is very expensive. Would also require ports to provide that fuel as well. Most switching will be regional and won’t have as great an impact as the switch to lower sulfur fuel.

Enforcement? “We’re waiting to see what enforcement will look like as well.” Police won’t be pulling ships over on the high seas to check sulfur content of fuel, that’s for sure.

Fluctuation in prices towards the end of the year as this rolls out or is it all baked in? Believes prices will be impacted even though everyone has known about this for a long time. Main impact will be on distillate grades. Impact on diesel market could be significant - 15%!

It really comes down to the flow of crude oil and how its going to change around the world. U.S. oil imports haven’t changed in 3 years even though domestic production has increased. More light crude being exported. Possible we could see an increase in U.S. oil imports as more U.S. light oil goes abroad.

Contact Drilling Info at www.drillinginfo.com

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Iran Sanctions
Implications for Venezuela - is the US giving up on those sanctions in favor of Iran sanctions?
Implications for oil market - will the UAE and Saudi compensate barrel for barrel? Or will we see higher oil prices as a result of tightening supply?
Has Trump lost leverage with China by ending the waivers as well?

What’s up with Texas - layoffs happened but now that oil prices are rising, will Texas producers hike production? Should producers start hedging production now that prices are up?

Russia is another player. The bromance days are over and Russia is now in the driver’s seat.

Libya: Trump talks to militia warlord Hafter about getting Libya’s oil production back on track. This doesn’t seem likely but would be very helpful to the situations if it could be managed.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/libya-says-trumps-talk-with-militia-leader-could-drive-up-oil-11555866722


On Iran sanctions:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/04/21/if-sanctions-cut-irans-oil-exports-to-zero-would-saudi-arabia-really-fill-the-void/#4a6aac9d6ea6

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RBC now thinks oil will go to $80 this summer
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/11/prepare-for-80-oil-this-summer-as-wounded-bulls-rise-rbc-warns.html
Will oil hit $80 this summer?
“Asymmetrically skewed to the upside spurred by geopolitically infused rallies.”
Back in January 2019 RBC forecast $60 for WTI and $68 for Brent average prices. Now the forecast is $67 for WTI and $75 for Brent.

How Trump should handle the Iran sanctions
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-10/trump-and-iran-ramping-up-sanctions-without-an-oil-price-spike
Trump shouldn’t zero out Iran’s oil exports because there’s no political or diplomatic benefit and it could push gasoline prices up right as people get on the road this summer.

API’s Monthly Statistical Report - March 2019 -- https://www.api.org/~/media/Files/News/2019/19-March/Monthly_Statistical_Report_February_2019.pdf

Interview with API Chief Economist Dean Foreman

Petroleum Demand - solid demand but growth slowed a little bit (0.4%) - a little lower than expected. Several factors - we’ve enjoyed above trend growth for awhile, especially this past February.
API DEFI (economic indicator) - conflicting signals right now. Demand is very high, drop in exports.
Oil inventories - higher yr/yr (6.4% higher) is consequential. Above 5year average. This time last year we were concerned inventories were going lower. But oil prices are rising right now - buoyed by OPEC production cuts.
Based on production right now its not unusual to see upward price revisions from banks right now. But - what’s happening with US dollar and what’s happening with interest rates? But Fed. Reserve has signaled that its not going to raise interest rates for the rest of this year, and possibly not until 2021. This should take some of the air out of the dollar. Expectation that oil market will respond in tandem.
Can the U.S. increase its crude oil exports as Saudi Arabia looks to keep more crude at home for refining? Depends on whether Saudi Arabia can really build so many refineries especially with everyone else expanding its refining capacity - India, US, Mexico, etc.
Impact of grounding of Boeing Max 8 - having at least a minor impact.
What should we watch for in summer months? China trade deal could have a major impact on crude oil, natural gas markets, LNG markets, global shipping rates.
IMO 2020 - When will this impact prices? Different forecasts- could be 20% price impact but investments have been made in preparation for it. Also depends how strictly it is implemented and that we will have to see. Compliance will increase over time. Market is probably pretty resilient.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Karr Ingham on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/karr-ingham-9b62333a/

Dean Foreman on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/dean-foreman/

Mine Yucel on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mine-yucel-7597201/

Texas Alliance of Energy Producers - https://www.texasalliance.org/

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank - https://www.dallasfed.org/

American Petroleum Institute - https://www.api.org/

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

S to extend Iran oil sanctions waivers to China, India, South Korea, Turkey: survey
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/032919-us-to-extend-iran-oil-sanctions-waivers-to-china-india-korea-turkey-survey
In terms of foreign policy goals, the sanctions haven’t achieved their goals in terms of pulling back Iranian paramilitary organizations, terrorist activities.

Trump will see cheaper gas prices, but it's not because of his oil tweet: Energy expert Tom Kloza
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/28/trump-will-see-cheaper-gas-but-not-because-of-his-tweet-tom-kloza.html
Trump more focused on price at the pump (gasoline) than oil prices
Trump’s tweeting for lower prices very disheartening to oil workers

Trump administration OKs nuclear energy transfers to Saudi Arabia, sparking new battle with Congress
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/29/trump-team-and-congress-spar-over-nuclear-energy-transfers-to-saudis.html
This is so U.S. companies can bid along with companies from Russia, China, South Korea and France.

Aramco!
Most profitable company
Costs $2.80/barrel - much less than assumed (between $2 and $10)
Lack of qualified oil and gas employees in the future - potential labor shortage is something face in the States as well.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/04/01/saudi-aramco-is-the-most-profitable-company-in-the-world-but-where-is-all-the-money-going/

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The Soho Forum: www.sohoforum.org
Debate on climate change April 15!
Resolution: Carbon dioxide in atmosphere threat has been greatly exaggerated vs. climate change is a serious threat.

Mr. Epstein talks with Bob Murphy about his communist parents and debating: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/ep-12-gene-epstein-on-commies-krugman-and-crushing-debaters/id1441789978?i=1000427879905&mt=2

Find Mr. Epistein on this year's Contra Cruise: http://www.tomwoodscruise.com/

Jet fuel? Will private space companies impact jet fuel demand? It could! But we need to know how much of jet fuel demand these companies make up.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omani-ports-give-u-s-navy-greater-control-over-strategic-waterway-near-iran-11553448471?

Tactical play. Extra level of security for a very significant water way to global oil trade. Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz isn’t a real threat, but U.S. having access to bases close by makes it obvious that the U.S. could counter any Iranian threat to the waterway.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/435437-oil-execs-boasted-of-unprecedented-access-to-admin-report?

What extra access could possibly help oil companies that the Trump administration wasn’t already going to help them with? Perhaps its more significant that these companies are part of the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA), and are hoping to have better access that larger corporations like Exxon, Chevron.

Called top of the oil market and predicted that oil market would go below $30/barrel.

Market moves - we don’t really ever know what’s going on behind the scenes. Some rationals could just be what someone on the desk made up at the moment to have something to say.

Tend to interpret data as having finality of market close and that monthly data are approximations and change all the time. This happens a lot with monthly employment data, etc.

Commodities markets: how much is coming form big traders vs. small traders? How much comes from major companies trading? Big trading firms know that their moves impact the market so they may prefer to move gradually instead of abruptly because the reaction can be bad for their trades. Example of Mexico’s oil hedges - they aren’t doing the best job of it. Be careful of glib interpretations for why a market has moved. People don’t want to be transparent in the act of trading. Then you are acting against your own interests.

Should insider trading be illegal? Epstein argues that it shouldn’t be illegal. If your buying pressure bids up the market (based on information that isn’t public) you are actually helping those who are selling by pushing up the price. Likewise with those who are selling.

If its known that Aramco is trading on OPEC meetings, then traders may decide to stay out of the market as a result. Looking at positions of large hedge fund can basically show you where the inside information is. Can see where commitments of large hedge funds are and can take advantage of his. If an OPEC meeting is happening might be best to be out of the market or if you can figure out what Aramco is likely to do, might want to take that into account when it comes to trading strategy.

But Aramco could destroy the market - If its known that they are dominating the market it could push people out trading because Aramco (or other big traders) are controlling it. Could that actually be Aramco’s strategy? Is so, Epstein argues they are under a delusion that they can stabilize the market. Inherent volatility of oil market is based on inelasticities of demand. This is why commodity markets exist.

How should we think about economic indicators for global economy?
- sustained oil spikes (shocks) have at times been associated with downturns. Don’t anticipate that happening now, Next recession won’t be oil related.
- Recessions do impact price of oil.
- Right now, looking mostly at yield curve. 3 months interest rate moved above the 10 year interest rate. Inverted yield curve. In a normal yield curve the 3 month interest rate should be higher. When this happens it is one of the most reliable signs of a recession. Needs to be sustained for a bit longer to see recession. Could take a full year for a recession to occur. That, along with others, indicates there will at least be a slowdown in economic growth globally, though not necessarily a recession.
- Need to see if yield curve inversion continues for another month.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/03/14/why-the-new-aston-martin-ev-is-the-perfect-car-for-james-bond/

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API Monthly Statistical Report - https://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/api-monthly-statistical-report

Notes and articles:
Gasoline prices on the rise:
https://business.gasbuddy.com/gas-price-rise-hits-four-straight-weeks/
Gasoline prices heading up - but not close enough to the psychological line at which people stop buying or grumble about it.

Pemex
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/03/10/time-running-out-for-worlds-most-indebted-oil-company-pemex/
Pemex in big trouble, downgraded by Moody’s and Fitch recently to BBB-. Mexican President wants to inject $3.8 billion into the company but can it really saved? Is it worth saving? Want to build a new refinery - will cost $8 billion, but hope to reduce Mexico’s gasoline dependence on U.S.

Explaining Venezuela's blackouts:
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/03/10/nationwide-blackout-in-venezuela-faq/
How Venezuela ended up with such a massive blackout and what they can do to fix it. They rely mostly on hydroelectric power for electricity, even if they could produce oil, they don’t have oil fired power plants to burn it for electricity.

API Monthly Statistical Report
U.S. production eclipsed 12 million bpd in crude oil production in February DESPITE pullback in drilling activity over last month.
Questions over demand - responsiveness to lower prices, but perhaps the fall in global oil prices has helped keep demand from falling too much. There is some softness in demand, but it is seasonal. Year over year increase in distillate demand is very strong. Freight trucking and shipping very strong in the U.S. Jet fuel also very strong for February. Very strong domestic signs.
Internationally, demand kept up.
EIA shows $60 a barrel throughout 2019. Don’t see a big responsiveness to Saudi production cut.
Productivity rising in the U.S. and there is more room even for more U.S. production gains.
U.S. exports of crude oil and products hit the 8 million barrel per day mark - but can the U.S. really rival Saudi Arabia? Overall market share picture is difficult to balance as U.S. production continues to grow. Mixed signals from economic indicators continue - industrial growth slowing in U.S. and weakness in China continues.
Jet fuel domestic demand - 1.6 million barrels per day but gasoline is 9 million barrels per day. It’s not killing it, but its showing solid growth. When you take gasoline, jet fuel AND distillates together, demand growth is strong.

Ellen on the NOPEC bill:
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/433261-american-energy-could-be-collateral-damage-in-attempt-to-punish

Ellen on Bloomberg Radio:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-03-08/oil-in-holding-pattern-as-venezuela-iran-oil-looms-radio

Ryan on Texas Oil and Gas Podcast and NEW!!! Show. Check it out.

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