When Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivers his Budget Speech on February 19, it is expected that reported tax revenues will be about R10-billion short of initial forecasts, auditing firm PwC South Africa tax policy leader Kyle Mandy has noted.
In last year's Budget, the total tax revenue was forecast at R1.86-trillion. However, in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), published in October, this figure was revised downward by R22-billion to R1.84-trillion.
The MTBPS revision was primarily driven by significant decreases in personal income tax (PIT), which was reduced by R10-billion; value-added tax (VAT), which was reduced by R13-billion; and fuel levies, which were reduced by R13-billion.
These declines were partially offset by a R12-billion increase in forecast corporate income tax (CIT) revenues.
Speaking at a briefing, in Johannesburg, on February 12, Mandy said that, as a result of these factors, actual revenues were now expected to be slightly lower than the revised MTBPS estimate by about R10-billion. This was mainly owing to lower-than-forecast VAT collections.
"It's not a pretty picture. It's somewhat disappointing," he said.
He explained that the total tax revenue forecast for the 2024/25 financial year was initially set at R1.86-trillion. The MTBPS revised this down to R1.84-trillion. CIT revenue was initially forecast at R302.7-billion but was later revised upward to R314.4-billion.
PIT revenue was revised downward from R738.7-billion to R729-billion. VAT revenue saw a reduction from R476.7-billion to R463.8-billion. Customs duties were revised downward from R76.8-billion to R73.9-billion, while fuel levy revenue was adjusted downward from R95.8-billion to R82.4-billion.
As of December 2024, total tax revenue collections stood at R1.32-trillion. CIT collections amounted to R230.4-billion, PIT ato R521.7-billion, VAT to R322.2-billion, customs duties to R53.5-billion and fuel levy collections to R62.2-billion.
Mandy said actual revenue growth as at December was recorded at 5.3%, with CIT declining by 0.4%, PIT grew by 13.2%, VAT by 1.3%, customs duties by 6.7% and fuel levies contracted by 9.1%.
"Corporate tax remains a major concern. It is a significant contributor, but it is also by far the most volatile of all of our taxes because it depends on corporate profitability and economic cycles.
"You tend to have an outsized impact on revenue collections in good and bad times. We are highly reliant on corporate tax as a source of revenue, certainly compared to developed countries," Mandy noted.
He said projected revenue collections based on year-to-date growth suggest a total of R1.83-trillion, with CIT at R311.8-billion, PIT at R734.7-billion, VAT at R453.3-billion, customs duties at R75.3-billion, and fuel levies at R83.2-billion.
Under this projection, the estimated revenue shortfall amounts to R30.4-billion, with CIT expected to exceed estimates by R9.1-billion, while PIT could see an increase of R4.1-billion.
However, VAT is projected to underperform by R23.5-billion, customs duties by R1.5-billion and fuel levies by R12.6-billion.
Mandy explained that, when projected revenue collections are assessed using the historical year-to-date to full-year average percentage, total tax revenue is expected to reach R1.82-trillion. CIT is estimated at R299.9-billion, PIT at R736.6-billion, VAT at R454-billion, customs duties at R77-billion and fuel levies at R83.7-billion.
Under this projection, the total revenue shortfall could increase to as much as R40.7-billion, with CIT exceeding expectations by R2.8-billion and PIT by R2.1-billion. However, VAT is still expected to underperform by R22.8-billion, while customs duties could see a minor surplus of R192-million. The fuel levy shortfall is projected at R12-billion.
The main contributor to the projected revenue shortfall is the lower-than-expected Vat collections, reflecting slower-than-anticipated consumer spending.
Mandy added that the decline in fuel levy ...