The Energy Regulator, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa's (Nersa's) highest decision-making body, has granted Eskom a 12.74% tariff increase for implementation on April 1.
The announcement coincided with the release of interim results by Eskom for the period to September 30, 2024. These showed that the utility made a profit of R16-billion in the first six months, a period that coincides with the high-demand and high-tariff winter months.
The result represented a sharp turnaround from the R2-billion profit made during the same period in 2023, as well as a dramatic improvement compared with the R55-billion full-year loss.
Nersa chairperson Thembani Bukula announced that the Energy Regulator also approved increases of 5.36% and 6.19% for Eskom's 2026/27 and 2027/28 financial years.
This, against requests for 11.8% and 9.1% respectively, made in Eskom's sixth multiyear price determination (MYPD6) application.
As a result, the standard tariff would rise from 195.95 c/kWh to 220.92 c/kWh on April 1 for direct customers, instead of the 266.77 c/kWh sought by Eskom; municipal tariffs would rise on July 1. In the two outer years the tariff would increase to 232.75 c/kWh and 247c/kWh respectively.
The hike for 2025/26 is well below the 36.15% requested by the State-owned enterprise, but still above requests made by many stakeholders during public hearings in November and December for the increases to be pegged to inflation.
Consumer inflation stood at 3% in December, while the average inflation rate for the year was 4.4%, down from the average of 6% in 2023.
In addition, there was some political pressure on Nersa to contain the increases, after Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa described Eskom's 36.15% request as unaffordable and untenable.
In a statement, Ramokgopa, who is also Eskom's shareholder Minister, welcomed the decision, while acknowledging that it would place pressure on the utility. The Ministry, he said, remained committed to working with Eskom to drive greater efficiency gains.
However, Ramokgopa argued that the approved tariff adjustments showed consideration of the need to mitigate inflationary pressures on communities and businesses. He also indicated that other measures would be introduced by government to support poor consumers and small firms, but did not offer specifics.
BELOW ESKOM'S ASK
The 2025/26 increase is based on approved allowable revenue of R384-billion, which is materially lower than the R446-billion sought by Eskom.
It also assumes sales of 192 562 GWh, which are significantly higher than the 185 652 GWh forecast by Eskom in its submission.
The allowable revenue approved for the two outer years, was R410-billion (R495-billion) and R437-billion (R536-billion), while sales volumes were forecast at 192 710 GWh and 193 940 GWh respectively, a significant deviation from Eskom's declining sales trajectory.
The R61-billion shortfall between the allowable revenue approved by Nersa for 2025/26 and Eskom's application arose as a result of major adjustments to Eskom's regulatory asset base (RAB) and the utility's cost assumptions for the period.
Nersa approved an RAB that was R71-billion lower than the R1.1-trillion RAB included in the MYPD6 submission, but approved Eskom's weighted average cost of capital of 4%. The approved returns were reduced by R2.8-billion to R39.8-billion.
Nersa also cut Eskom's primary energy costs by R5.5-billion to R122.4-billion, slashed its operating costs by R16.4-billion to R76.9-billion and cut its depreciation by R21.8-billion to R45-billion.
Interestingly, no allocations were made for the carbon tax or for a partial recovery of municipal arear debt, for which Eskom had sought R5.5-billion and R8.9-billion respectively.
Similar cuts were made for the two outer years.
RINGFENCED REVENUE
For the first time, Nersa disaggregated the allowable revenue across Eskom Generation (R249.6-billion), Eskom Distribution (R39.3-billion) and the newly separated...