Better-than-expected revenue collection enabled Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to report an improvement in government’s fiscal position relative to the one forecast in the February Budget.
However, slowing global and domestic growth together with ongoing power cuts pose a risk to the fiscal outlook, as does the prospect of a higher-than-budgeted public-service wage settlement.
The National Treasury had already lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2022 to only 1.9%, having projected growth of 2.1% in February. GDP growth is also expected to average only 1.6% over the coming three years.
Revenue collections during the first half of 2022/23 were 9% higher than the same period of the prior year as the positive impact of high commodity prices continued.
The gross tax revenue estimate for 2022/23 was, thus, projected to be R83.5-billion higher, at R1.68-trillion, than the R1.59-trillion forecast in February.
Godongwana said government would use a portion of this revenue to reduce the budget deficit, with the consolidated budget deficit projected to narrow from 4.9% of GDP in 2022/23 to 4.1% next year, 3.9% in 2024/25 and 3.2% in 2025/26.
However, spending on health, education, local government free basic services, infrastructure, and policing would also be increased, along with support for Denel, Sanral and Transnet.
Additional new expenditure of R37-billion was outlined for 2022/23, comprising R54.1-billion in spending increases, partially offset by projected underspending.
SANRAL, TRANSNET, DENEL SUPPORT
Sanral would receive an additional R23.7-billion to pay off government-guaranteed debt, which is said to be conditional on a solution to Phase 1 of the Gauteng Freeway Improvement Project (GFIP).
In addition, Godongwana announced that a decision had been made to transfer Sanral’s R47-billion debt relating to the GFIP to the national and Gauteng governments in a bid to resolve the long-standing e-toll issue.
He also revealed that the Gauteng provincial administration would assume responsibility for the cost of maintaining the 201 km of highway and associated interchanges, as well as any future investments.
Seventy percent of the debt, or R32.9-billion, would be absorbed by the national government, while the Gauteng provincial government would take on the 30% balance, or R14.1-billion.
Another R5.8-billion would be directed to Transnet, half to repair infrastructure damaged by the April floods in KwaZulu-Natal, and half to increase locomotive capacity, which together with theft of cable and lines was undermining the performance of some key export corridors.
Transnet Freight Rail has confirmed that it has over 300 locomotives currently out of service, owing to a long-running dispute with its Chinese supplier, which has refused to provide the utility with locomotive spares. A recent in-principle settlement agreement is expected to clear the way for both the delivery of spares and additional locomotives.
Arms manufacturer Denel would receive R3.4-billion to complete its turnaround plan and R204.7-million to reduce contingent liabilities arising from its weak financial position.
The Minister said that discussions were still under way to consider options for a replacement for the temporary Covid-19 social relief of distress grant, which was currently being distributed to 7.4-million people.
“No final decision has been made about a replacement or how it would be financed. As a result, the temporary grant will be extended for one year until March 2024.”
PRIMARY SURPLUS
Godongwana also announced that government expected to achieve a primary budget surplus, with revenue exceeding non-interest spending, of 0.7% in 2023/24.
However, he did not provide details of what was expected to be a R200-billion debt-relief package for Eskom, announcing that the scale and the structure of the programme would be unveiled only in February.
Gross debt is now projected to stabilise at 71.4% of GDP in 2022/23, representing a mater...