Since the US Liberation Day, chemical prices and margins have plummeted, while tariffs are also accelerating the end of existing globalised business models of trade. 

-          Tariffs are altering decades of globalized trade patterns, pushing economies toward protectionism

-          Chemical prices and volumes have plummeted since Liberation Day on 2 April

-          Export-oriented business models under threat, particularly for US chemical companies

-          Average US tariffs surged from 2.4% to 28% before settling around 16.8%, the highest since 1935 during the Great Depression

-          Future strategy must focus on regional supply chains and production capabilities, reducing reliance on global exports

-          Rising geopolitical tensions and NATO uncertainties mean chemicals for defence could become a major growth area

-          Localized production will drive demand for recycling, acceptance of mass balance approach needed

-          Grupa Azoty Polyolefins bankruptcy shows vulnerability of European chemical projects in an oversupplied global market 

-          Regionalization trend already accelerating companies like BASF touting local capacity as a competitive advantage amid tariff uncertainty

-          Expect consolidation into fewer, larger producers in Europe, while smaller players may shut down or transition to specialties/low carbon production