Remarks by French president Emmanuel Macron suggest a tougher approach to protecting Europe as global chemicals move towards a 2028 bottom of cycle. 

-          Ethylene, propylene capacity additions to accelerate, peak in 2027 

-          2028 bottom of the cycle, project delays could push this out to 2029

-          2000-2028 almost 75% of global capacity additions for key building blocks have been in China 

-          Final investment decision (FID)-to-on spec production can be only 2.5 years in China, so risk of further projects adding to the problem 

-          China additions may slow from 2030 due to peak carbon goals

-          Fight for survival for producers in Europe and Asia

-          To balance markets around 24m tonnes of ethylene closures required – equivalent to demand of Europe, Former USSR and Africa 

-          26m tonnes of propylene closures required - equivalent to capacity of Europe, Former USSR and Africa

-          Olefins demand at 30-year low in Europe, to 1990s levels, and will not revive

-          Signs of a more protectionist approach by Europe to save industrial base

-          Producers in China are also suffering from overcapacity, losing money

-          China exported more chemicals than the US or Middle East in Q2 2025

-          Trinseo closure, INEOS Quattro ratings downgrade spell more bad news 

Asian spot prices for butadiene (BD) are rebounding, after a prolonged period of declines, as supply tightens on various unplanned grounds, but the supply losses may be minimised if China exports rise.  Join ICIS Asian BD editors Elaine Zhang and Ai Teng Lim, as well as Senior Analyst Ann Sun, as they discuss current Asian BD market developments and a near term outlook.  

Since the US Liberation Day, chemical prices and margins have plummeted, while tariffs are also accelerating the end of existing globalised business models of trade. 

-          Tariffs are altering decades of globalized trade patterns, pushing economies toward protectionism

-          Chemical prices and volumes have plummeted since Liberation Day on 2 April

-          Export-oriented business models under threat, particularly for US chemical companies

-          Average US tariffs surged from 2.4% to 28% before settling around 16.8%, the highest since 1935 during the Great Depression

-          Future strategy must focus on regional supply chains and production capabilities, reducing reliance on global exports

-          Rising geopolitical tensions and NATO uncertainties mean chemicals for defence could become a major growth area

-          Localized production will drive demand for recycling, acceptance of mass balance approach needed

-          Grupa Azoty Polyolefins bankruptcy shows vulnerability of European chemical projects in an oversupplied global market 

-          Regionalization trend already accelerating companies like BASF touting local capacity as a competitive advantage amid tariff uncertainty

-          Expect consolidation into fewer, larger producers in Europe, while smaller players may shut down or transition to specialties/low carbon production

China has a huge impact on the global chemical industry in terms of supply and demand so analysis of future demographic and economic trends is important for business leaders. 

-          Huge variation in forecasts for changes in population

-          Chemicals demand growth scenario planning is vital

-          Must take into account China’s success in technology and exports

-          Demand boost if export earnings are funnelled back into pension and healthcare reforms

-          ICIS base case 2025-2050 sees 2% polyolefins demand growth per annum, down from  10% between 1992 and 2024

-          More container traffic may return to the Suez Canal if ceasefire holds

LONDON (ICIS)--Europe’s oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets remain structurally weak, as participants keep inventories lean or actively destock, further reducing spot market activity.

Market participants are now prioritizing inventory management and 2026 contract talks, with fundamentals expected to remain largely unchanged through year-end.

Oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter, Marion Boakye,  joins acrylate esters editor, Mathew Jolin-Beech, and glycol ethers editor, Cameron Birch, to discuss current conditions along the oxo-alcohols value chain.

The decision by ExxonMobil to close its ethane cracker in Scotland shows there is a need for faster action by lawmakers across Europe and more innovative thinking to safeguard the region’s chemical industry.   

-          ExxonMobil to close its 830,000 tonnes/year, ethane-fed Fife Ethylene Plant 
-          Questions over availability of North Sea ethane to feed the plant

-          Around $1 billion investment reportedly needed to revamp plant
-          Rising defence spending offers opportunities

-          Chemicals can switch to more technical and service-based products

-          INEOS preparing anti-dumping duties cases to protect its business

-          Europe must fight for its innovation advantage, other regions getting stronger

-          Aging population in Europe is a drag on demand

Europe butadiene (BD) editor Melissa Hurley discusses the current market conditions and challenges facing the global market with editors Ai Teng Lim, Stephanie Cervantes and BD analyst Gawaine Preston.

Additional reporting from Industry Analysts Elaine Zhang and Ann Sun. 

As the year draws to a close, weak underlying demand persists in the European acetone, phenol and derivatives chain in a fragile macro climate, compounded by year-end inventory and working capital considerations. 

Other headwinds include global overcapacity led by Asia and profitability struggles in Europe in the face of high costs which have led to rationalisation plans in Europe in the chain and broader industry.

Heidi Finch senior editor covering the European BPA and epoxy resins markets is joined by: Jane Gibson covering the acetone and phenol markets, Mat Jolin-Beech covering MMA,  Sam Lovatt covering PC and VIP guest Michele Bossi - analyst for the chain. 

Chemical markets across Asia are seeing more trade flows from low cost producers such as China and the US as competition grows amid rising overcapacity.

-          Asia downstream markets not expected to recover until 2027/8

-          Low cost producers such as US, China, competing for market share

-          US tariffs, sanctions disrupting regional chemical markets

-          Moves in China, South Korea, Japan to close uncompetitive plants may help rebalance markets

-          China producers are exporting to other regions, such as Latin America

-          New China acetic acid plants add 10% to capacity in 2025

-          Downstream demand growth not keeping pace

-          Since the podcast was recorded on 3 November, a major plant has shut, driving up demand for imports into India, potentially widening arbitrage for Atlantic spot trades  

-          In China, retirement of older acetic acid plants unlikely to offset capacity addition in near future 

Senior Editor Vicky Ellis is joined by colleagues Senior Editor Ben Lake and Markets Editor Anne-Sophie Briant-Vaghela to discuss the a generally weak October polymer market. 

They also discuss the outlook for November, in what has been a disappointing year for many in the polymer business.