Even if the current shaky ceasefire becomes permanent, the complexities of repairing and restarting chemical plants means global markets will have to wait 12-18 months for regional operations to return to normal. 

-          Restarting chemical plants is complex and requires external technical experts who will be in short supply

-          Plant restarts require huge amounts of energy, which will overstretch power networks if multiple plants try to fire up

-          Logistics logjams will add further delays to restart plans

-          Personnel are no longer on site and will have to return

-          It will take 12-18 months for Middle East production to ramp up

-          Europe and Asia will be lucky to receive Middle East trade flows by the end of the year 

-          Europe’s chemical industry could see a renaissance if industrial customers return to local sourcing

-          Europe is becoming cost-competitive again

LONDON (ICIS)--Butadiene prices have surged globally following Middle East supply disruptions linked to the US‑Iran conflict. Europe BD editor Melissa Hurley discusses the current market conditions and challenges facing the global market with editors Ai Teng Lim, Elaine Zhang and Senior BD analysts Gawaine Preston (Europe) and Ann Sun (Asia) and Preeti Sriram covering (US). 

Asia

Europe

US market

• US BD prices also rising, but spot export supply remains tight due to outages and turnarounds

LONDON (ICIS)--Europe oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets are in significant flux as volatility spikes off the back of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and associated severe shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply constraints and rising costs are heavily impacting sentiment into late March with sellers pushing hard for price increases across the board.

Glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye and acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech about market conditions and expectations for the near future.

Surging inflationary pressures and dwindling economic growth expectations are pushing parts of the global economy towards the kind of stagflationary footing seen during the 1970s oil crisis, while supply shocks and feedstock surges are starting to remap chemicals flows once again.
 
 ·       European chemical markets have flipped from oversupply to tightness

·       Supply disruptions in Asia and the need to source material may reduce flows to Europe

·       China is better-equipped to deal with the Strait of Hormuz closure than many of its neighbours

·       The crisis could prompt Asia Pacific players to re-evaluate their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern feedstocks

·       The US chemical industry is comparatively insulated and profiting from the turmoil: with abundant domestic oil, gas and cheap ethane

·       Economic sentiment is weakening as conflict-driven costs ripple through the global economy

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--The ongoing US and Israel-led conflict in the Middle East has disrupted crucial flows of naphtha feedstock to cracker operators across Asia.

With about 60% of Asia’s naphtha imports typically sourced from the Middle East, the region remains vulnerable to widespread cracker run‑rate cuts and temporary shutdowns, with the effect cascading through the ethylene (C2) value chain.

This is the second installment of a two-part podcast.

In part one, ICIS senior editors Josh Quah and Izham Ahmad examine how tightening feedstock availability is pressuring cracker operating rates and reshaping sentiment in the C2 and polyethylene (PE) markets.

In part two, ICIS senior editor Luffy Wu and ICIS market analyst Jonathan Chou discuss how the disruption is filtering downstream into the styrene monomer (SM) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets, and what participants can expect in the weeks ahead.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--The ongoing Middle East conflict has disrupted crucial flows of naphtha feedstock to cracker operators across Asia. With about 60% of Asia’s naphtha imports typically sourced from the Middle East, the region remains vulnerable to widespread cracker run‑rate cuts and temporary shutdowns, with the effect cascading through the ethylene value chain.

• Naphtha shortages force Asia producers to cut C2 and PE operating rates
• Market participants look to China for alternative SM supply amid tightening availability
• PVC margins hold firm on adequate inventories and steady downstream demand

In part one of this podcast, market editors Josh Quah and Izham Ahmad examine how tightening feedstock availability is pressuring cracker operating rates and reshaping sentiment in the ethylene (C2) and polyethylene (PE) markets.

In part two, market editors Luffy Wu and Jonathan Chou discuss how the disruption is filtering downstream into the styrene monomer (SM) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets, and what participants can expect in the weeks ahead.

In this episode of ICIS Chemical Connections, we unpack how geopolitical tensions have driven sharp divergence in methanol prices across Asia—and how that volatility is feeding through into the acetic acid market. We explore why China looks structurally different, where demand is failing to keep up outside China, and what this means for producers across the region.

Key takeaways

Recycling Editors Sam Lovatt and Matt Tudball speak about the indirect impact the Middle East conflict is having on the recycled polymers markets in Europe, and why some markets such as recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET) and recycled low density polyethylene (rLDPE) are feeling the consequences much quicker than recycled high density polyethylene (rHDPE) and recycled polypropylene (rPP). 

Topics covered include:

Europe sources far less of its chemical feedstocks from the Middle East than Asia, meaning it is more insulated from the direct impact of the war. 

-          Europe naphtha markets much less dependent on Middle East than Asia

-          Europe only gets 30% of its crude from the Middle East compared to 60% for Asia

-          Opening of INEOS Project ONE ethane-based cracker may force closure of naphtha-fed crackers

-          Oil product markets have tightened faster than crude

-          Margins for oil refineries which can access crude oil are rising 

-          Alternatives to bypass Strait of Hormuz limited – maximum 5 million barrels/day compared to 20 million barrels/day before the conflict 

-          ICIS forecasts crude oil demand growth will plateau from 2028

-          Petrochemicals, aviation fuel will drive demand growth

-          Most advantaged refineries combine good feedstock supply, flexibility and market access

-          Other refineries will have to adopt innovative strategies to survive and thrive

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior analysts David Jorbenaze and Paolo Scafetta.  

LONDON (ICIS)--The US-Israeli-led war against Iran has unleashed extreme volatility across chemical markets, with base oils prices rallying in the first half of March on the back of production woes, spikes in feedstock and shipping costs and supply chain disruption.

The latest attacks are set to cripple the market as the hit on QatarEnergy's Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility is set to keep 2m tonnes of base oils offline for a minimum of a year.

The ICIS Base oils team looked at the key drivers and what to watch out for next.

Amanda Hay, Lucas Hall, Sophie Udubasceanu, Sam Wright, Michael Connolly, Michelle Liew, Olivia Dai and Whitney Shi discuss the global outlook for base oils.

Additional reporting by Jean Zou and Lynn Tan