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It’s semifinal week, which means the takes get hotter, the nerves get tighter, and every “safe” number feels like a trap. Marc and Scotty break down both CFP semifinal matchups with a betting-first lens—tempo, game script, trench matchups, coaching decisions, and the one thing that always matters this time of year: how these games actually start.
Our Favorite Angle: 1st Half Unders
Both of the boys are aligned on the same vibe in both games: start slow, feel each other out, avoid the early mistake, and keep it tight through halftime. In CFP semis, you usually get a lot more chess than fireworks early—especially with elite athletes, conservative opening scripts, and coordinators playing “don’t lose” before they play “go win.”
Miami Game: Marc’s Full Game Under
Marc isn’t just living in the first half—he’s got a stronger position here: full game Under in the Miami semifinal. He likes the overall matchup to lean toward longer drives, fewer explosive plays, and the kind of red-zone stiffness that turns touchdowns into field goals. If Miami gets a lead, he expects the pace to drag even more.
Oregon: Cover… and Maybe a Live Dog
Marc’s side in the other semifinal: Oregon to cover, and he’s not ruling out a little spice—Oregon as a live dog depending on how the game opens. If the Ducks get behind early (or the market overreacts to one Indiana/Oregon punch), Marc is ready to shop a better number in-game.
Lock in, crack a cold one, and let’s get weird—semifinal week is where the books get paid… unless you stay disciplined.
By The Crazy Sheet4.9
5757 ratings
It’s semifinal week, which means the takes get hotter, the nerves get tighter, and every “safe” number feels like a trap. Marc and Scotty break down both CFP semifinal matchups with a betting-first lens—tempo, game script, trench matchups, coaching decisions, and the one thing that always matters this time of year: how these games actually start.
Our Favorite Angle: 1st Half Unders
Both of the boys are aligned on the same vibe in both games: start slow, feel each other out, avoid the early mistake, and keep it tight through halftime. In CFP semis, you usually get a lot more chess than fireworks early—especially with elite athletes, conservative opening scripts, and coordinators playing “don’t lose” before they play “go win.”
Miami Game: Marc’s Full Game Under
Marc isn’t just living in the first half—he’s got a stronger position here: full game Under in the Miami semifinal. He likes the overall matchup to lean toward longer drives, fewer explosive plays, and the kind of red-zone stiffness that turns touchdowns into field goals. If Miami gets a lead, he expects the pace to drag even more.
Oregon: Cover… and Maybe a Live Dog
Marc’s side in the other semifinal: Oregon to cover, and he’s not ruling out a little spice—Oregon as a live dog depending on how the game opens. If the Ducks get behind early (or the market overreacts to one Indiana/Oregon punch), Marc is ready to shop a better number in-game.
Lock in, crack a cold one, and let’s get weird—semifinal week is where the books get paid… unless you stay disciplined.

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