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Erich Schaffer argues climate science contains major blunders, chiefly that water vapor cools the planet and provides negative feedback. He explains the greenhouse effect as determined by emission altitude and the adiabatic lapse rate, criticizing older “back radiation” explanations. He claims climate budgets and attribution studies overstate surface emission by assuming Earth’s surface is a blackbody, ignoring water’s non-Lambertian behavior and ~0.91 hemispheric emissivity, which he says inflates the greenhouse effect and misattributes missing radiation to water vapor. He highlights latent heat cooling and contends empirical “proxy” methods used to infer strong positive water-vapor feedback are invalid due to lapse-rate behavior. He concludes climate sensitivity would drop to ~1 K or less.
00:00 Meet Erich Schaffer
01:06 Why Climate Basics Matter
04:52 Greenhouse Effect Explained
07:30 Lapse Rate Physics
10:52 IPCC Definition Shift
12:38 Debunking Back Radiation
16:04 Cloud Window Mistake
19:25 Latent Heat Cooling
20:40 Who Causes Warming
31:04 Reading the Spectrum
33:46 What CO2 Forcing Means
37:03 Deriving 3.7 Wm2
41:41 Water Vapor Feedback Setup
45:35 Models vs Observations
46:57 Empirical Feedback Proxies
51:10 Calculating Feedback From Slopes
54:16 Super Greenhouse Tropics Claim
56:52 Lapse Rate Versus Water Vapor
58:45 Moist Adiabats And Latent Cooling
01:00:58 Clouds Versus Water Vapor Paradox
01:05:21 Water Reflectivity And Polar Amplification
01:09:55 Infrared Emissivity Of Water
01:15:01 Surface Emissions Overstated
01:21:16 Reattributing The Greenhouse Effect
01:28:30 Thought Experiments Removing Water Vapor
01:34:26 Why Regional Proxy Fails
01:40:24 Seasonal Proxy Broken By Inversions
01:44:37 Sluggish Troposphere Explains Slopes
01:49:33 Wrap Up And Next Parts
https://x.com/erich_schaffer
https://greenhousedefect.com/
=========
Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1
By Thomas Nelson4.9
3636 ratings
Erich Schaffer argues climate science contains major blunders, chiefly that water vapor cools the planet and provides negative feedback. He explains the greenhouse effect as determined by emission altitude and the adiabatic lapse rate, criticizing older “back radiation” explanations. He claims climate budgets and attribution studies overstate surface emission by assuming Earth’s surface is a blackbody, ignoring water’s non-Lambertian behavior and ~0.91 hemispheric emissivity, which he says inflates the greenhouse effect and misattributes missing radiation to water vapor. He highlights latent heat cooling and contends empirical “proxy” methods used to infer strong positive water-vapor feedback are invalid due to lapse-rate behavior. He concludes climate sensitivity would drop to ~1 K or less.
00:00 Meet Erich Schaffer
01:06 Why Climate Basics Matter
04:52 Greenhouse Effect Explained
07:30 Lapse Rate Physics
10:52 IPCC Definition Shift
12:38 Debunking Back Radiation
16:04 Cloud Window Mistake
19:25 Latent Heat Cooling
20:40 Who Causes Warming
31:04 Reading the Spectrum
33:46 What CO2 Forcing Means
37:03 Deriving 3.7 Wm2
41:41 Water Vapor Feedback Setup
45:35 Models vs Observations
46:57 Empirical Feedback Proxies
51:10 Calculating Feedback From Slopes
54:16 Super Greenhouse Tropics Claim
56:52 Lapse Rate Versus Water Vapor
58:45 Moist Adiabats And Latent Cooling
01:00:58 Clouds Versus Water Vapor Paradox
01:05:21 Water Reflectivity And Polar Amplification
01:09:55 Infrared Emissivity Of Water
01:15:01 Surface Emissions Overstated
01:21:16 Reattributing The Greenhouse Effect
01:28:30 Thought Experiments Removing Water Vapor
01:34:26 Why Regional Proxy Fails
01:40:24 Seasonal Proxy Broken By Inversions
01:44:37 Sluggish Troposphere Explains Slopes
01:49:33 Wrap Up And Next Parts
https://x.com/erich_schaffer
https://greenhousedefect.com/
=========
Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries
My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

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