Europe Inside Out

From severed undersea cables to explosive-laden drones over a German airport runway and a Romanian gas field, Russia’s attacks on European NATO countries have escalated in recent months. 

Rym Momtaz, Kadri Liik, and Nathalie Tocci discuss whether Europe is deterring Russia enough and if it should—or can—start striking back.

[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:09] Russia’s Attacks: Hybrid or More?, [00:09:35] Is Europe Capable of Deterring Russia? [00:17:52] What Can Europe Do to Stop Russian Attacks?

Maksym Beznosiuk, July 21, 2026, "Why Russia Could Escalate Hybrid Warfare Against Europe," Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Alissa de Carbonnel, July 23, 2026, "Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy Now," Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Kadri Liik, July 7, 2026, "Why Europe Cannot Negotiate a New Yalta with Russia," Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Rym Momtaz, September 1, 2026, "Europe’s Self-Confidence Problem," Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Rym Momtaz et al., July 28, 2026, "Taking the Pulse: Are the EU’s Watered-Down Russia Sanctions Better than None?," Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Nathalie Tocci, August 4, 2026, "With Russia at the door and the US backing away, Europe has to build its own ‘way of war’," The Guardian.

Nathalie Tocci, January 31, 2026, "How Europe Lost," Foreign Affairs.

The U.S. decision to restrict access to some of Anthropic's latest AI models over national security concerns directly affects EU-U.S. cooperation in cyberspace. 

Rym Momtaz, Raluca Csernatoni, and Louise Marie Hurel discuss what this means for Europe's strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty.

[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:01] The Securitization of Frontier AI, [00:18:12] Different Access Levels to Frontier AI Models, [00:26:04] Government vs. Public Access to Frontier AI.

Raluca Csernatoni, June 23, 2026, “Europe Needs a Strategy for its Turn to New Defense Tech,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Louise Marie Hurel, June 22, 2026, “Gatekeeping the Frontier: When AI Access Becomes a National Security Concern,” Royal United Services Institute.

Louise Marie Hurel, Elijah Glantz, and Daniel Cuthbert, “Developing a Framework for Secure Third-Party Access to Frontier AI,” Royal United Services Institute.

Rym Momtaz, ed., May 7, 2026, “Taking the Pulse: Is it Worth it for Europeans to Placate Trump?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Rym Momtaz, May 5, 2026, “Europeans Are Quiet Quitting the United States,”Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Raluca Csernatoni, April 16, 2026, “The Fog of AI War,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Louise Marie Hurel, Pia Hüsch, et al., March 16, 2026, “Brief, Bold, and Beautiful? Reactions on the U.S. National Cyber Strategy,” Royal United Services Institute.

Raluca Csernatoni, October 3, 2025, “Corporate Geopolitics: When Billionaires Rival States,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Raluca Csernatoni et al., September 1, 2025, “Tech Diplomacy 2.0: Examining the Intersections Between Industry and Governments in International Relations,” International Journal of Cyber Diplomacy.

Europe is stuck between the United States’ market-driven dynamism and China’s state-led industrial strategy.

Rosa Balfour, Noah Barkin, and Anu Bradford debate whether Europe can leverage its rulemaking power and emerging industrial agenda into genuine competitiveness.

Anu Bradford, Noah Barkin, May 27, 2026, “Can Europe Compete with the United States and China?,” Carnegie Europe.

Noah Barkin, January 6, 2026, "Watching China in Europe—January 2026," German Marshall Fund.

Noah Barkin, December 1, 2025, "As Europe Dithers, the Cost of Derisking from China Rises," Rhodium Group.

Noah Barkin, January 16, 2025, "Trump and the Europe-US-China Triangle," Rhodium Group.

Anu Bradford, 2023, "Digital Empires. The Global Battle to Regulate Technology," Oxford University Press.

Anu Bradford, 2023, "Europe’s Digital Constitution," Virginia Journal of International Law, Volume 64.

Anu Bradford, 2019, "The Brussels Effect. How the European Union Rules the World," Oxford University Press.

Rosa Balfour, February 8, 2026, "Dependence on the US is Deeply Rooted in the European Mindset," Le Monde.

Rosa Balfour, January 24, 2026, "The EU Finally Used an Economic Threat Against Trump. But the Markets Forced His Climbdown," The Guardian.

Rosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, "Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B.," Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Since U.S. President Donald Trump has returned to the White House, several crises have affected the transatlantic relationship.

Rym Momtaz, Rosa Balfour, and Stefan Lehne reflect on whether Europeans should stop considering the United States as the partner it once was.

[00:00:00] Intro, [00:00:57] Was it Worth it for Europe to Appease Trump?, [00:13:22] EU Dependence on the U.S. in Different Domains, [00:24:56] Is the U.S. Still a Reliable Partner for Europe?

Rym Momtaz, ed., May 7, 2026, “Taking the Pulse: Is it Worth it for Europeans to Placate Trump?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Rym Momtaz, May 5, 2026, “Europeans Are Quiet Quitting the United States,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Rym Momtaz, ed., April 9, 2026, “Taking the Pulse: Can NATO Survive the Iran War?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Stefan Lehne, March 24, 2026, “Time to Merge the Commission and EEAS,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Stefan Lehne, February 12, 2026, “What Can the EU Do About Trump 2.0?,” Carnegie Europe.

Rosa Balfour, February 8, 2026, “Dependence on the United States Is Deeply Rooted in the European Mindset,” Le Monde.

Rosa Balfour, January 24, 2026, “The EU Finally Used an Economic Threat Against Trump. But the Markets Forces his Climbdown,” The Guardian.

Rosa Balfour, January 6, 2026, “The Cost of Europe’s Weak Venezuela Response,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Stefan Lehne, November 4, 2025, “Can the EU Meet the Trump Moment?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Rosa Balfour, Stefan Lehne, and Elena Ventura, September 22, 2025, “The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0,” Carnegie Europe.

Emmanuel Macron's updated French nuclear doctrine represents an unprecedented effort by Paris to coordinate with European partners as U.S. security commitments decline.

Rym Momtaz, Sophia Besch, and Ulrich Kühn discuss France's evolving role in European nuclear deterrence and the political and material credibility gaps that persist.

[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:26] Macron’s Update to France’s Nuclear Doctrine, [00:09:13] The Role of the Baltics in Europe’s Defense, [00:22:47] European Alternatives to the U.S. Extended Deterrence.

Rym Momtaz, April 7, 2026, “On NATO, Trump Should Embrace France Instead of Bashing It,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Rym Momtaz (ed.), March 12, 2026, “Taking the Pulse: Is France’s New Nuclear Doctrine Ambitious Enough?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Ulrich Kühn, February 24, 2026, “The Unintended Consequences of German Deterrence,” Global Policy vol. 17, issue S1: 1-9, https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70134.

Sophia Besch, Erik Brown, and Rafaela Uzan, December 22, 2025, “Rebalancing the Transatlantic Defense-Industrial Relationship: Regional Pragmatism in Northeastern Europe,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Sophia Besch and Jamie Kwong, December 11, 2025, “Unpacking Europe’s Deterrence Dilemmas,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Ulrich Kühn, May 1, 2025, “Is Europe Moving to an Independent Nuclear Deterrent?,” Arms Control Today, Arms Control Association.

With key elections approaching across Europe, radical-right parties are poised to maintain and even expand their political influence.

Rosa Balfour, Catherine Fieschi, and Cas Mudde explore whether a more right-leaning EU constitutes an existential threat, or if such concerns are overstated.

Catherine Fieschi, Cas Mudde, March 19, 2026, "Is the Radical-Right Threat Existential or Overstated?," Carnegie Europe.

Rosa Balfour, January 24, 2026, "The EU Finally Used an Economic Threat Against Trump. But the Markets Forced His Climbdown," The Guardian.

Rosa Balfour, Stefan Lehne, Elena Ventura, September 22, 2025 "The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0," Carnegie Europe.

Rosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, "Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B," Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Rosa Balfour and Stefan Lehne, April 18, 2024, "Charting the Radical Right’s Influence on EU Foreign Policy," Carnegie Europe.

Catherine Fieschi, April 10, 2025, "What Le Pen’s Sentence Means for the Rule of Law in Europe," Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Catherine Fieschi, August 16, 2023, "Populocracy," Agenda Publishing.

Cas Mudde, December 4, 2024, "Democracy is in a doom spiral—but it isn’t dead yet," Prospect Magazine.

Cas Mudde, September 2019, "The Far Right Today," Polity.

The Iranian nuclear deal was the last issue where Europe could realistically claim to have diplomatic influence.

Rym Momtaz, Pierre Vimont, and Maha Yahya debate whether the war in Iran has left Europe irrelevant on the global stage.

[00:00:00] Intro, [00:00:51] The Current Situation in Lebanon and the Region, [00:09:16] Is Europe Now Irrelevant in the Region?, [00:25:54] The Role of the Gulf and the Future of the Region.

Maha Yahya, March 4, 2026, “How Is the War Playing Out in Iran?”, Inside Story, Al Jazeera English.

Pierre Vimont, March 3, 2026, “Europe on Iran : Gone with the Wind”, Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Rosa Balfour, February 8, 2026, “Dependence on the United States is Deeply Rooted in the European Mindset”, Le Monde.

Rosa Balfour, January 6, 2026, “The Cost of Europe’s Weak Venezuela Response”, Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Pierre Vimont, October 15, 2024, “The EU Needs an Interagency Process for Foreign Policy”, Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Pierre Vimont, October 10, 2023, “Europe’s Moment of Powerlessness in the Middle East”, Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

The EU and its member states are weighing the costs and benefits of offering Ukraine a fast-track accession process, while also considering how to manage relations with other candidate countries.

Rosa Balfour, Sylvie Goulard, and Gerald Knaus examine how further enlargement could shape the EU’s cohesion, decisionmaking capacity, and ability to act effectively on the global stage.

[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:02] Could a Smaller EU Be Stronger than an Enlarged Bloc?, [00:32:37] The Future of EU Enlargement.

Rosa Balfour, March 25, 2025, “The Case for Europe,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Rosa Balfour, October 3, 2024, “EU Should Enlarge, Even Out of Despair,” Visegrad Insight.

Dimitar Bechev, Iliriana Gjoni, October 28, 2025, “How the Western Balkans Can Contribute to European Defense,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Stefan Lehne, Zoran Nechev, Richard Grieveson, August 27, 2025, “Access Before Accession: Rethinking the EU’s Gradual Integration,” Carnegie Europe.

Rym Momtaz, February 10, 2026, “To Survive, the EU Must Split,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

The peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, initialed in August 2025, represents a major turning point for the South Caucasus.

Thomas de Waal, Zaur Shiriyev, and Areg Kochinyan discuss the role Europe can play in supporting normalization and advancing infrastructure development across the region.

[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:37] The Armenia-Azerbaijan Normalization, [00:11:23] New Connectivity Projects in the South Caucasus, [00:19:31] Europe’s Role in Supporting the Peace Process.

Zaur Shiriyev, February 3, 2026, “Europe Falls Behind in the South Caucasus Connectivity Race,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Thomas de Waal, December 16, 2025, “Trump’s Peace Lessons for Europe,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Zaur Shiriyev and Philip Gamaghelyan, December 4, 2025, “Strategic Directions for Building Sustainable Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Thomas de Waal, November 13, 2025, “Armenia’s Election Is a Foreign Affair,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Thomas de Waal, September 22, 2025, “An Unlikely Road to Peace for Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Foreign Affairs.

Philip Gamaghelyan and Zaur Shiriyev, August 7, 2025, “As They Edge Toward Peace, Armenia and Azerbaijan Must Resist Old Habits,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Zaur Shiriyev, May 26, 2025, “The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan,” Foreign Affairs.

Thomas de Waal, March 17, 2025, “Armenia and Azerbaijan’s Major Step Forward,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Areg Kochinyan, July 12, 2024, “Why the World Must Support Armenia’s Defeated Democracy Against Russian Hybrid Warfare,” Conflict and Civicness Research Blog, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Areg Kochinyan, May 21, 2024, “Armenia Should Use This Window of Opportunity to Leave Russia’s Orbit,” Politika, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

The Trump administration has repeatedly signaled its rejection of the values that have long underpinned EU-U.S. relations.

Rosa Balfour, Jan Techau, and Nathalie Tocci ask whether Brussels must now chart its own course.

Carnegie Europe will be addressing the toughest questions facing the EU in its new project “Europe Head-to-Head.” Follow our work for insights and discussions shaping the continent's future.

[00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:29] Is Europe Able to Divorce From the United States?, [00:16:15] Europe’s Military Industrial Complex, [00:19:42] Europe’s Competitiveness and Lack of Trust, [00:33:25] Is Trumpism a Structural Trend?, [00:46:26] The Future of EU-U.S. Relations.

Jan Techau, Nathalie Tocci, January 7, 2026, “Can Europe Trust the United States Again?,” Carnegie Europe.

Rosa Balfour, January 6, 2026, “The Cost of Europe’s Weak Venezuela Response,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe.

Rosa Balfour, September 22, 2025, “The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0,” Carnegie Europe.

Rosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, “Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B.,” Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Jan Techau, September 2025, “The Future of European Integration: A Threshold Moment of Hope,” Horizons Summer 2025, Issue No. 31, Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development.

Nathalie Tocci, January 13, 2026, “Breaking with a toxic partner: Why Trumpism may actually benefit Europe in the long run,” The Insider.

Nathalie Tocci, January 11, 2026, “Europe on high alert in the face of Trump’s strategic onslaught,” El País.

Nathalie Tocci, December 12, 2025, “How Europe Lost,” Foreign Affairs.

Nathalie Tocci, December 10, 2025, “Salvaging Global Order in the Post-American Era,” BKHS Magazine.

Nathalie Tocci, December 5, 2025, “Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?,” Foreign Policy.