After over a year of devastating conflict, Israel and Hamas reached a three-phase ceasefire agreement in January 2025, brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. The deal allowed for significant increases in humanitarian aid deliveries, prisoner and hostage exchanges, and discussions for a potential permanent ceasefire.

This episode was recorded on March 11, ten days after the scheduled completion of Phase 1. Since then, the ceasefire has remained in limbo—Israel is pushing to extend Phase 1, while Hamas wants to advance to Phase 2 negotiations, under which a permanent ceasefire would be established. With talks stalled and a spike in resumed violence on March 18, the road ahead remains uncertain, especially as U.S. policy under President Trump continues to shift.

In this episode, Sophia Besch sits down with Zaha Hassan, a Fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program and a human rights lawyer. She previously served as the senior legal advisor to the Palestinian negotiating team during Palestine’s bid for UN membership and is a regular participant in track II peace efforts. Together, they explore the fragile ceasefire in Gaza—its implications, challenges and delays with implementation, and the evolving role of the United States in the region under President Donald Trump's administration.

Notes:

1. Zaha Hassan and H. A. Hellyer, Suppressing Dissent: Shrinking Civic Space, Transnational Repression and Palestine-Israel, (Oneworld, 2024).

Nearly a week after the tense Oval Office meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky, and just days after the Trump administration’s abrupt decision to pause military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, serious questions loom over America’s commitment to Kyiv’s security. At the same time, the White House appears to be exploring a thaw with Moscow—including potential sanctions relief with little in return.

In this episode, Sophia Besch and Dara Massicot unpack the implications of these moves: What message does this send to Ukraine and its European allies? How are European leaders responding? And what does this shift mean for U.S. foreign policy and great power competition?

Notes:

1. Dara Massicot, Russian Military Reconstitution: 2030 Pathways and Prospects, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 12, 2024.

What's going on in the Korean Peninsula following the impeachment of South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol? How will evolving politics shape Seoul's future relations with North Korea? How will domestic political shifts in the U.S. shape foreign policy and great power relations among Washington, Beijing, Seoul, and Pyongyang?

Asia Program Fellow Darcie Draudt-Véjares and Senior Fellow Chung Min Lee discuss these questions and more in this special feature episode of The World Unpacked.

Rising sea levels and climate-driven flooding are reshaping the global economy, with major implications for the U.S. housing market and the global economy. As millions of homes face increased risk, mortgage defaults could surge, home values may plummet, and financial instability could spread worldwide. Governments will soon need large-scale strategies to relocate coastal populations and manage mounting disaster relief costs.

In this episode, we explore how climate change threatens financial stability and whether the U.S. is facing another housing market bubble. Sophia Besch discusses these questions with Susan Crawford, a senior fellow for Carnegie's Climate, Sustainability, and Geopolitics Program.

Notes:

1. Susan Crawford, Charleston: Race, Water, and the Coming Storm, (Pegasus Books, 2023).
2. Amitov Ghosh, The Nutmeg's Curse: Parables for a Planet in Crisis, (University of Chicago Press, 2021).

China’s new AI model, DeepSeek, has rattled markets and raised questions about the global AI race. Meanwhile, just before leaving office, the Biden administration introduced the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion—an ambitious new rule that could reshape how—and who—gets access to advanced AI technologies from the U.S. It is designed to regulate AI exports, strengthen partnerships with allies, and restrict adversaries’ access to advanced AI chips and models.

But with the Trump administration now in power, will this framework survive? The stakes are high: AI chips fuel cutting-edge technologies, and whoever controls them holds the keys to the future of advanced AI systems.

In this episode, Sophia Besch and Technology and International Affairs Fellow Sam Winter-Levy explore what Biden’s new AI framework aims to achieve, how DeepSeek might challenge U.S. AI dominance, and what we might expect from the Trump administration's with respect to AI exports. Will Washington double down on AI restrictions, or will Trump scrap Biden’s framework in favor of a new approach? And with China rapidly advancing, can the U.S. maintain its technological edge?

Notes:

1. Sam Winter-Levy, "The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 13, 2024.
2. Sam Winter-Levy, "With Its Latest Rule, the U.S. Tries to Govern AI’s Global Spread,"  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 13, 2025.
3. Matt Sheehan and Sam Winter-Levy, "Chips, China, and a Lot of Money: The Factors Driving the DeepSeek AI Turmoil," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 28, 2025.
4. Leopold Aschenbrenner, "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," June 2024.
5. Jeffrey Ding, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition, Princeton University Press (2024).
6. Benjamín Labatut, When We Cease to Understand the World, Pushkin Press and New York Review of Books (2021).

The Biden administration contends it has left the United States in a better geopolitical position than when it entered office four years ago. In a year-end foreign policy review from Carnegie’s American Statecraft Program, Director Chris Chivvis and Senior Fellow Stephen Wertheim critique Biden's foreign policy legacy and discuss what Trump might do next.

Why has it been so difficult for Biden to restrain Israel and succeed in Ukraine? What might a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal look like? How can the U.S. navigate toward a more stable U.S.-China relationship, despite entrenched beliefs that we are living through a second Cold War?

Join them for a wide-ranging conversation on the most pressing issues facing the United States and the world. 

Shownotes:

1. The Economist, Chris Chivvis: Talks Between Russia and Ukraine would Save Lives
2. Financial Times, Stephen Wertheim: It's Time for Europe's Magical Thinking on Defence to End 
3. The Guardian, Chris Chivvis: Admitting Ukraine to NATO Would be a mistake for both Ukraine and NATO  
4. Global Asia, Stephen Wertheim: Asia Should Encourage 'Trump the Peacemaker'
5. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, U.S. China Relations for the 2030s: Toward a Realistic Scenario for Coexistence

As we enter this new year of 2025, Sophia Besch sits down with President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Tino Cuéllar. They take a step back at the year and look at the big themes and trends that are likely going to determine and underlie the discussions of the year ahead, from technology to political economy, democratic governance, and global power dynamics.

Notes:

1. Ramachandra Guha, India After Gandhi: The History of the World's Largest Democracy, Ecco, 2008.
2. James C. Scott, Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed, Yale University Press, 1999.
3. Álvaro Enrigue, You Dreamed of Empires, Riverhead Books, 2024.

Over the past decade, China has emerged as a powerhouse here, producing  the majority of key clean energy technologies. What does this mean for the United States, and for the race towards net zero emissions? In this episode, Sophia Besch and Fellow Milo McBride talk about the strategies the U.S. could deploy to better compete in the clean energy revolution. They unpack how innovative technologies could not only help close the clean energy gap with China but also redefine America’s role in the global energy landscape. They also explore how the incoming Trump administration might approach the U.S.-China race for clean energy dominance—and what all of this means for American allies abroad.

Notes: 

1. Milo McBride, "Catching Up or Leaping Ahead? How Energy Innovation Can Secure U.S. Industrial Stature in a Net-Zero World," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 19, 2024.
2. Jonas Nahm, Collaborative Advantage: Forging Green Industries in the New Global Economy (Oxford University Press, 2021).

Credits:

• Host: Sophia Besch
• Executive Producer & Audio Engineer: Heewon Park
• Videographer: Cameron Zotter

What can the elections of 2024 tell us about the state of democracy worldwide? This year has seen a flurry of elections across democracies, sparking debate among analysts about their implications for global democratic health. 

As the year draws to a close, Sophia sits down with Thomas Carothers, Director of the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at Carnegie and leading expert on democracy and international politics. Their conversation unpacks key theories like the "bonfire of incumbents," and explores the narratives shaping our understanding of this pivotal election year. 

1. Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point, (Crown, 2023).
2. Thomas Carothers, "Three Conclusions from the Global Year of Elections," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 18, 2024.

Host: Sophia Besch

Executive Producer & Audio Engineer: Heewon Park

Videographer: Cameron Zotter

Our modern global trading system is broken. How can we fix it?

We seem to have moved beyond the free trade consensus of the globalization era. Few politicians today still publicly support the assumption that trade, unrestricted by national borders, makes everyone more prosperous. Under President Trump, the United States has wielded tariffs and industrial policy to reshape the international trade order to better serve American interests, and the Biden administration has upheld and doubled down on many of these. But these interventions do not yet add up to a new trade policy consensus.

This week's episode dives into a provocative new argument: in order to achieve freer trade, the world needs more trade interventions. What is global trade policy doing wrong? What new trade rules are needed to create a system that both harnesses the benefits of free trade and preserves nations' freedom to direct their economies? And what policy interventions might help foster this future of freer trade? Sophia discusses these questions and more with Michael Pettis, a nonresident Senior Fellow for Carnegie China and expert on China's economy.

1. Michael Pettis and Erica Hogan, "Trade Intervention for Freer Trade," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 3, 2024.