In 2022, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared “Zeitenwende”—a “turning point” in how Germany should think about its defense and security. As the third anniversary of the war approaches amid signs that the Trump administration wants to bring it to an end on terms favorable to Russia, Germany is yet to form a new government following the collapse of Scholz’s coalition. What does the upcoming federal election mean for Germany and its role supporting Ukraine? What changes to German and EU defense can be expected, depending on the composition of the new coalition?

Since Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president, ways to stop the carnage in Ukraine this year have been the subject of intense policy discussions in capitals around the world. Despite Trump’s rhetoric about ending the war swiftly and forcing Putin into a deal, there is still no clear vision of how a cessation of hostilities could be reached. Does the new team in the White House have what it takes to secure a deal that guarantees Ukraine’s sovereignty, and what is the way forward?

For a long time, oil and gas sales were the Russian economy’s main source of income. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU and U.S. have unleashed unprecedented sanctions upon the Russian energy sector. The effectiveness of this pressure is hotly debated, since Russia has proved able to continue its assault.

What is the current state of the Russian oil and gas sector? How have the last three years changed Russia’s approach to selling energy commodities, and how have developments affected the global energy market? 

Check out Sergey’s piece on the Russian shadow fleet for Carnegie Politika – https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-oil-fleet-sanctions?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia

And Sergey’s piece for Financial Times (subject to a paywall) – https://www.ft.com/content/68403277-9cda-491c-aeeb-7dbe77850df6

Russia has had a strong military presence in Syria ever since 2015, bolstering the regime of Bashar al-Assad and pushing back the rebels. But in the space of a few days this month, the rebels were able to take major cities including Damascus and overthrow the government. Assad was forced to flee the country and seek refuge in Moscow. What does this mean for Russia, which had invested a lot of resources in Syria and used it as a bargaining chip in the power play in the Middle East? What will the fallout be from this sudden change of political climate?

After the long-awaited decision of the United States to allow the use of Western-made weapons against internationally recognized Russian territory, Russia retaliated by launching an Oreshnik missile, which it claims is a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile. With many details about the new missile still unknown, the danger of possible nuclear escalation looms over the world, leaving decisionmakers in the West grappling with the question of how to navigate such dangerous terrain.

Host - Alex Gabuev

Guest - James Acton

Music by Liam Gordon

For many, the recent victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election looks like a clear win for the Kremlin. Trump has promised to stop the war in Ukraine swiftly—presumably on terms more favorable to Moscow than to Kyiv. But does the president-elect really have what it takes to convince Moscow to stop its relentless assault on Ukraine? What steps does he need to take to attempt to secure the promised peace deal? What will happen if those efforts fail?

Russia is using agents of influence, propaganda, vote buying, and the Orthodox Church to retain influence in Moldova. With a presidential election looming, the people of Moldova must decide whether they want to continue the EU-integration course led by President Maia Sandu, or whether to spurn it and pursue a different path, all while Russia tries to seek and invent new ways to remove agency from what it considers “a potential part of Russia.”

You can read Maksim Samorukov’s recent paper on Moldova here: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/moldova-russia-strategy?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia

Host – Alexander Gabuev

Guests – Paula Erizanu and Maksim Samorukov
Produced by Dmitrii Kuznetsov

Music by Liam Gordon

Despite predictions that the Russian military budget had reached its peak, the recently announced 2025/26 budget shows otherwise. To keep the war machine oiled and functioning, the Russian government is once again raising military spending substantially to levels not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some in the Russian elites believe that ongoing high demand in the military industrial complex will expedite economic growth. Several miscalculations by the West and a lack of massive military achievements from Ukraine have allowed the Russian economy to withstand the pressure of sanctions. But how sustainable is the current economic strategy, and how long can Putin fund his atrocious war while damaging crucial yet vulnerable economic sectors like healthcare, education, and science?

Read Kolyandr's piece on Western sanctions for Carnegie Politika:https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-eu-sanctions-trade?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia

Host — Alex Gabuev

Guests — Alexandra Prokopenko, Alexander Kolyandr

Producer — Dmitrii Kuznetsov

Music by Liam Gordon
 

In August, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to pull off an incursion into Russian territory. Unlike previous forays executed by small paramilitary groups, the incursion into Russia's Kursk region appears to be more strategic and serious. Russia was forced to retreat, leaving behind a lot of conscripts who were taken as prisoners of war by the Ukrainian army. While the operation seems to be slowing down, its long lasting consequences are still not clear. Regional governments in border regions of Russia are trying to maintain the facade of life as usual while evacuating people from the affected area.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, is looking for a way to counteract the enemy's operation and recover from such a reputational blow for a nuclear state.

Russia’s unjustified aggression against Ukraine has revitalized NATO, and this new energy was on display at the recent 75th anniversary summit of the alliance. While there were some long-term decisions to boost European deterrence against the Russian threat, other key questions were left unanswered. Can Ukraine become a full member of the alliance? When can this happen? The open-ended confrontation in Eastern Europe, and the risks posed by a belligerent Russia, have resulted in a situation that is more ripe for escalation than the darkest days of the Cold War.

In this episode, renowned historian Mary Elise Sarotte discusses the roots of the current crisis. Author of Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post–Cold War Stalemate, Mary Elise Sarotte is also Marie-Josée and Henry R. Kravis Distinguished Professor of Historical Studies at Johns Hopkins University. What should the U.S. and Europe do before it’s too late to help Ukraine? How are the historical cases of Norway and West Germany joining NATO relevant to Ukraine today? What can history teach us when it comes to preventing the security situation in Europe from getting even worse?

Further reading:

- Sarotte, M.E., A Better Path for Ukraine and NATO, Foreign Affairs