Carnegie Politika Podcast

In August, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to pull off an incursion into Russian territory. Unlike previous forays executed by small paramilitary groups, the incursion into Russia's Kursk region appears to be more strategic and serious. Russia was forced to retreat, leaving behind a lot of conscripts who were taken as prisoners of war by the Ukrainian army. While the operation seems to be slowing down, its long lasting consequences are still not clear. Regional governments in border regions of Russia are trying to maintain the facade of life as usual while evacuating people from the affected area.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, is looking for a way to counteract the enemy's operation and recover from such a reputational blow for a nuclear state.

Russia’s unjustified aggression against Ukraine has revitalized NATO, and this new energy was on display at the recent 75th anniversary summit of the alliance. While there were some long-term decisions to boost European deterrence against the Russian threat, other key questions were left unanswered. Can Ukraine become a full member of the alliance? When can this happen? The open-ended confrontation in Eastern Europe, and the risks posed by a belligerent Russia, have resulted in a situation that is more ripe for escalation than the darkest days of the Cold War.

In this episode, renowned historian Mary Elise Sarotte discusses the roots of the current crisis. Author of Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post–Cold War Stalemate, Mary Elise Sarotte is also Marie-Josée and Henry R. Kravis Distinguished Professor of Historical Studies at Johns Hopkins University. What should the U.S. and Europe do before it’s too late to help Ukraine? How are the historical cases of Norway and West Germany joining NATO relevant to Ukraine today? What can history teach us when it comes to preventing the security situation in Europe from getting even worse?

Further reading:

- Sarotte, M.E., A Better Path for Ukraine and NATO, Foreign Affairs

The war in Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. These countries—Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia—find themselves in what we have termed an “arc of instability” between Russia and the European Union.

Putin has visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. The visit reflects the two countries' deepening alignment amid Pyongyang's active support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Andrei Lankov provides insights into the signals being exchanged between Moscow and Pyongyang, and addresses the question of whether a real alliance might be on the cards.

Following his fifth presidential inauguration, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a new government. The most significant change is to the Defense Ministry, which will now be led by Andrei Belousov, a Keynesian economist and former deputy prime minister. Coming amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and notable arrests within the Defense Ministry, the reshuffle has prompted questions about Kremlin priorities.

What will Belousov's first moves as defense minister be? How will his predecessor Sergei Shoigu’s role evolve, and how might it impact the frontline in Ukraine?

Responsibility for the March 22 terrorist attack at the Crocus City concert hall has been claimed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), and most of the suspects are migrants from Tajikistan. Yet Russian authorities remain steadfast in their insistence that Ukraine and "Western forces" orchestrated the indiscriminate murder of over 140 people. What does this fixation on Ukraine signify for Russia’s regime stability? Is there genuine conviction within Putin’s inner circle that Ukraine masterminded the attack? And what real threats does Russia face from radicalization in Central Asia?

Four years ago, Belarus reached a point of no return in its delicate balancing act between Russia and the West. Desperate for support, Alexander Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly reliant on Moscow since 2020. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has further solidified Belarus's position as a close satellite state. What does this mean for the future of Belarus? What roles do Lukashenko and the Belarusian elite play? And how should the West re-evaluate its approach to Belarus in light of these circumstances?

Russia’s presidential election this month shattered all previous records, with president Putin "securing" an unprecedented 87.3 percent of the vote. The critical question now is: how will Putin’s re-election be perceived, both domestically and internationally? Is he a legitimate leader in the eyes of Russians and the global community?

The sudden death of the jailed Russian opposition leader was a shock, though it was not unexpected. For the last decade, Navalny had been the most vocal critic and opponent of Putin's regime, while his Anti-Corruption Foundation had supporters in almost all Russian regions and cities. Only Navalny was able to consolidate people across Russia in waves of protests against corruption and the authoritarian regime. What impact has Navalny's death had on Russian society and the opposition movement? What is Navalny's legacy? Is there any other person inside or outside Russia who can lead the opposition to Putin's regime now? 

The Western sanctions imposed against Russia in response to its full-blown invasion of Ukraine were not just designed to put a cost on Moscow’s actions, but also to stem the flow of materials and money enabling it to wage war. Why did this hope fall short, and how is Putin’s wartime economy faring as we approach 2024 and the second anniversary of the invasion? What do we know of the current state of the Russian economy, and what indicators can we use to plot its trajectory?