Carnegie Politika Podcast

Putin’s Russia has always been China’s pragmatic junior partner while trying to balance its dependency on Beijing, but since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the relationship has become ever more tilted in China’s favor. What are the current dynamics between the two countries, how is China promoting its interests, and what have Putin and Trump’s recent visits to Beijing changed in China’s relationship with Russia?

As the conflict between the West and Putin’s Russia escalates without guardrails, would the Kremlin dare to launch a military incursion into NATO territory in coming years? With the mercurial Donald Trump at the helm of NATO’s most consequential power, how might NATO react to an attack against a member state?

These were the questions addressed in a German war game, Ernstfall, co-hosted by Die Welt newspaper and the German Wargaming Center, which has sparked a lively policy debate inside NATO. Alexander Gabuev, who played Vladimir Putin in the exercise, is joined by the two main architects of the war game to take listeners backstage and discuss the making of Ernstfall and its policy implications.

Check out the Politico article about the war game, and read Alex Gabuev’s New York Times piece about it here.

Excerpts from the Ernstfall podcast are copyrighted by Die Welt and are reproduced here with permission. Listen to that podcast here.

Viktor Orban was one of the most prominent Russia supporters in Europe, blocking aid to Ukraine and trying to soften EU sanctions against Russia. Now that he is gone, will there be a drastic change in Hungary's foreign policy and relations with Moscow? Was Russia able to influence EU policy at all through Hungary? And what can be expected of the new Russia-sympathetic government of Rumen Radev in Bulgaria?

On February 5, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, the New START, expired. Absent this or a similar agreement, the world is a more dangerous place—particularly given the nuclear buildup in China, proliferation and rapid evolution of military technologies, and ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Still, Rose Gottemoeller, who was the lead U.S. negotiator of the New START, remains cautiously optimistic about the future of arms control. What could lead to a revival of U.S.-Russia and international talks to contain the risks of nuclear war? And what lessons from cooperation between the two countries in areas like civilian nuclear power and space could be applicable for the future?

Rose Gottemoeller’s book Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and US-Russia Relations After the Cold War can be pre-ordered here.

Central Asia’s countries have been the focus of increased attention since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. They have been involved in parallel imports, feeding the Kremlin’s war economy, but have also hosted thousands of anti-war refugees from Russia and occasionally demonstrated support for Ukraine, despite Moscow’s ire. Now, with the war in Iran unfolding on their doorstep, the five states must navigate new challenges while not alienating the major local players—Russia and China—and further afield, the United States.

What are the risks and opportunities for Central Asia from the Iran war? How is the region navigating Trump’s volatility? How are Russia and China competing and cooperating in Central Asia, and what is the region’s approach to managing the Beijing-Moscow axis?

At the center of the new war in the Middle East is one of Russia’s most important partners in its struggle against the West: Iran. Despite strategic agreements with Tehran, Moscow is not bound by a treaty alliance with Iran—and is also consumed by its own costly war against Ukraine. Accordingly, the Kremlin has provided the Iranian regime with limited assistance, but hopes to reap greater benefits from the second-order effects of the chaos in the Middle East unleashed by Trump.

How does the war affect Russia both in the Middle East and globally? How do volatile oil prices benefit the Russian war machine, and how long will the effect of this new war last for Russia?

Following the initiation of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan last summer, there is still a long way to go before the conclusion of a formal agreement and sustainable peace in the region. In the wake of a visit by U.S. Vice President JD Vance and a plethora of signed agreements, the South Caucasus finds itself less and less dependent on a previous regional hegemon: Russia. What does this mean for the region? What obstacles remain on the road to a full-fledged peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Check out the paper here.

The Russian economy has been under intense pressure from sanctions, the demands of war, and structural challenges. Still, it isn’t collapsing, despite predictions and wishful thinking on the part of the West. How healthy is the Russian economy, and how much strain can it handle in 2026?

This year’s World Economic Forum took place amid turbulent transatlantic relations. Donald Trump has renewed his plans for “getting” Greenland, threatening to annex part of a NATO ally. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine rages on, while the peace talks have stalled. What is the state of the European discussion on relations with the U.S.? Can Europe support Ukraine while managing its own domestic challenges and a volatile U.S. foreign policy? What are Western leaders thinking in terms of their Russia strategy?

Under Putin, Russia has established a relationship with Venezuela, and was heavily involved in the country until recent years. The Chavez and then Maduro regimes bought Russian weapons with sizeable loans from the Kremlin, Moscow ordered its energy companies to invest in Venezuelan oil fields, and Russia boasted of having secured a foothold in the U.S.’s backyard. With Trump’s swift and successful operation to arrest Maduro, the situation has changed. What are the implications for Russia’s global posture? What can the Kremlin do, and will it do anything? Will deposing Maduro lead to a situation in which Venezuelan oil floods global markets with U.S. help?