Carnegie Connects

In a recent poll, two-thirds of American adults said they were concerned that “extremists” will commit acts of violence following the 2024 election if they are unhappy with the results. This should come as no surprise. Earlier this year the U.S. Department of Homeland Security warned that among other threats the 2024 election cycle will be a  “key event for possible violence.” How real is that threat and how would it likely manifest itself? What are the factors driving political violence in America today? And what can be done to mitigate the threat? 

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with down with former acting assistant attorney general for national security Mary B. McCord and Eric K. Ward, senior fellow at the Southern Poverty Law Center, to unpack these and other issues. 

The Middle East continues to boil. Following the Hezbollah rocket strike on a Druze town in the Golan Heights killing a dozen children, Israel targeted a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Two days later, the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed presumably by Israel in a missile strike in Tehran while attending the inauguration of the Iranian President. Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have all threatened retaliation.

What is the likely impact of recent events on the Gaza ceasefire talks? Is the region heading toward a major war? And is there chance for de-escalation diplomacy?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Amos Harel, Haaretz’s military correspondent and one of Israel’s leading defense analysts, to discuss these and other issues on Carnegie Connects.

This past spring many college and university campuses were roiled by unprecedented protests sparked by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Not since Vietnam has any foreign policy issue resulted in such widespread demonstrations on campuses.

What explains the intensity of the reaction? Has the Israeli-Palestinian conflict become a permanent fixture of hot debate? What lessons have been learned should demonstrations reoccur this fall? And is it possible to have productive conversations about the conflict without succumbing to nationalized, polarized narratives in a toxic media environment?

Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Princeton University Dean Amaney Jamal and Columbia University Dean Keren Yarhi-Milo for a wide-ranging discussion of  these and other issues.

The Israel-Hamas war drags on seemingly with no end in sight. President Biden has announced a phased plan to end the conflict, but Hamas has yet to respond and Benny Gantz, a supporter of the plan, has left the Israeli government. Meanwhile, there’s serious concern about the prospects of a major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border. 

What is the humanitarian situation for Gaza’s 2.3 million people? Is there any realistic planning for the proverbial day after? And what are the prospects for any regional peace initiative? In this episode, Aaron David Miller welcomes back to the program Ambassador David Satterfield, formerly the White House Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues, to discuss these and other issues.

As the Israel-Hamas war drags on, the potential for spillover effects increase. Three conflict areas have emerged that carry serious risk of escalation: first, growing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israeli-Lebanese border, attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis against international shipping in the Red Sea, threatening global supply chains and freedom of navigation, and the danger of another direct clash between Israel and Iran.   

What are the prospects for regional escalation? Is there a diplomatic pathway in Lebanon? And how have these conflicts affected the international economy, supply chains, and the global trade of hydrocarbons? Aaron David Miller will discuss these and other issues with Amos Hochstein, deputy assistant to the president and senior advisor for energy and investment at the White House. Prior to serving at the White House, Hochstein served as the U.S.-appointed mediator of the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations that resulted in a maritime border agreement between the two nations.

Seven months on, the Israel-Hamas war continues with seemingly no end in sight, against a backdrop of escalating regional tensions. While Israel remains determined to pursue a major military operation in Rafah, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas over the release of hostages and a ceasefire drag on. Following unprecedented strikes by Iran and Israel on one another’s territory, there is growing concern that Israel and Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, might find themselves engaged in a major war. Despite these compounding challenges, the Biden Administration holds out hope for a regional peace initiative, including Israeli-Saudi normalization, should the situation in Gaza stabilize.  

What are the prospects for ending the Israel-Hamas war? Will the current status quo hold, or might we see another escalation between Israel and Iran? And what is the status of the US-Israeli relationship? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Herzog to discuss these and other issues, in the next episode of Carnegie Connects. 

The recent attacks by Iran and Israel on one another’s territory have taken the strategic rivalry between these two adversaries into uncharted and dangerous territory. The unprecedented strikes seem to have been contained for now, but it’s by no means certain that this state will hold. The underlying issues that have fueled tensions — from conflict with regional proxies to Iran’s nuclear program — remain unresolved.  

Will the recent escalation between Iran and Israel lead the parties to greater risk-readiness or risk aversion? What role can outside parties, especially the United States, play in reducing tensions? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with the Institute for National Security Studies’ Sima Shine and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour to discuss these and other issues, in the next episode of Carnegie Connects. 

Congress is more involved in foreign policy — both formally and informally — than most Americans realize. With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, the Israeli-Hamas war continuing with no end in sight, and economic competition with China rising, Congress is likely to take a greater interest and have more influence on foreign policy in the coming year.

How divided is Congress on the key foreign policy issues of the day? Will party lines determine the passage of a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine or a possible ban of TikTok? And what issues offer the best prospects for bipartisan cooperation? Join Aaron David Miller, host of Carnegie Connects, as he sits down with Representative Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) to discuss these and other issues.

As the Israeli-Hamas war enters its sixth month, the conflict shows no signs of abating. The humanitarian plight of Gazans continues to deteriorate while the prospects of a major Israeli ground campaign in Rafah looms. At the same time, the negotiations surrounding a potential hostage deal appear stalled.

What are Israel's current objectives in the conflict? How do tensions along the Israeli-Lebanon border factor in, and what of rising tensions with Washington? Aaron David Miller welcomes former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak back to the program to discuss the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas war.

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Late last year, the Economist asked an intriguing question: How scary is China? President Joe Biden’s administration clearly considers China a peer competitor to the United States and many in Congress view Beijing as a mortal threat. There’s no doubt that China poses serious challenges, even dangers in some areas, for America. But is Washington overlooking China’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities, and misunderstanding what China wants from America and the world? Are we getting China right? 

Aaron David Miller sits down with David Rennie, the Economist’s bureau chief in Beijing, to discuss these and other issues.