Listeners, welcome to European Union Tariff News and Tracker for July 25, 2025.
The big story today: the United States and the European Union are on the brink of a pivotal trade moment, with President Trump threatening to impose a sweeping 30 percent tariff on European exports to the U.S. starting August 1 unless a deal is reached before then. This aggressive move has put transatlantic trade relations at their tensest point in years. European diplomats remain optimistic, but as of this morning, President Trump told reporters the odds of reaching a deal are “50-50, maybe less.” European officials, meanwhile, have been signaling hope that an agreement could be reached to reduce the tariff rate, with the latest reports pointing to intensive negotiations over a proposed 15 percent baseline tariff on all EU goods imported into the United States. That deal, if finalized, would represent a significant reduction from Trump’s threatened 30 percent, but would still lock in tariffs well above pre-2024 norms.
According to the American Action Forum, even if the 15 percent rate is adopted, these tariffs would cost U.S. consumers and businesses just over four hundred billion dollars annually, higher than previous “Liberation Day” tariffs. The Forum notes that none of the five most recent U.S. trade accords has resulted in rates under 10 percent, and that deals with the EU, Canada, and Mexico are still “to be seen.” They also report that should talks fail, both Brussels and Ottawa have fully authorized retaliatory tariffs of their own.
The EU has made it clear it will not stand by if high tariffs go into effect. The European Commission yesterday officially approved a 93 billion euro, or 109 billion dollar, counter-tariff package targeting American goods. According to The Economic Times, the first wave of these tariffs would snap into force on August 7, with additional measures rolling out through February if no accord is reached. This would impact a wide variety of U.S. exports, with the first wave focused on sectors that are politically sensitive in the United States.
In the Netherlands, NL Times reports that Europe’s counter-tariffs would hit about 30 percent of Dutch imports from the U.S., largely targeting high-tech and medical devices, computers, and precision equipment. Over half this value, however, is re-exported to the rest of the EU, which could limit the direct economic impact for the Dutch economy.
In summary, the situation is fluid. The U.S. and EU are locked in high-stakes negotiations, with massive tariffs poised to define transatlantic trade for the months ahead. Both sides claim to prefer a negotiated solution, but neither is backing down from threats of harsh new tariffs. Expect more updates as the August 1 deadline looms.
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