Exit Rich...Retire Free Podcast

Are you paying more for an investment fund that isn't beating the market?

In Episode 164 of The Cents of Things, Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang look at historical data showing how difficult it has been for actively managed large-cap domestic funds to outperform the S&P 500.

That raises an important question for everyday investors: What are you actually getting for the fees you're paying? COT 164

But that's only one part of this week's conversation.

Ron digs into recent retail spending data, including gasoline, department stores, furniture, home improvement and credit-card activity. Jeff and Ron then look at one of the biggest promises surrounding artificial intelligence: Is AI actually saving businesses money yet? Early survey data suggest some companies are beginning to see measurable savings, while many are still figuring out how to integrate AI into their business processes. COT 164

Then there's the M&A story.

Deal activity is picking up in commercial and industrial services, with larger companies and private-equity firms acquiring owner-operated HVAC, plumbing and other service businesses. For aging business owners without an internal successor, that could create an increasingly important exit path. COT 164

In this episode:

• Why beating the S&P 500 is so difficult for active fund managers
• Active mutual funds versus ETFs
• What recent retail spending tells us
• Why home-improvement spending is slowing
• Whether businesses are actually saving money with AI
• Jeff's own experience measuring AI-related cost savings
• Why M&A activity deserves investors' attention
• Private equity's appetite for HVAC, plumbing and service companies
• The opportunity for Baby Boomer business owners looking to exit
• New-home sales and mortgage rates
• Initial and continuing jobless claims
• Next week's ADP, PCE, GDP and ISM reports
• Why the upcoming employment data could move markets
• Why investors may want to tune out political noise

Plus, Ron's This Week in History takes us from the Bill of Rights and Rosetta Stone to Stonehenge, the B-29, the beginning of the nuclear age and old Yankee Stadium. COT 164

Smart Conversations. Stronger Financial Futures.

#CentsOfThings #Investing #SP500 #MutualFunds #AI #BusinessOwners #MergersAndAcquisitions #Economy #FinancialEducation

Check out the full article and visuals at: www.profitpilottax.com/augusta-rule-rent-home-to-your-business

Can your business pay you to use your own home—and can you receive that money tax-free?

Under the right circumstances, that's exactly what the Augusta Rule (IRC Section 280A(g)) can allow.

In this episode of Exit Rich, Jeff Kikel explains how qualifying business owners may be able to rent their personal residence to their business for 14 days or fewer during the year. The business may deduct the legitimate rental expense while qualifying rental income isn't reported by the homeowner.

But simply writing yourself a check isn't a tax strategy.

Jeff walks through a hypothetical example involving 12 monthly leadership meetings at a market-supported rental rate of $1,500 per day. That's $18,000 of rental expense to the business and $18,000 of qualifying rental income to the homeowner. After considering the impact on the QBI deduction, the hypothetical produces approximately $5,000 of federal tax savings at a 37% marginal tax rate.

Then there's the cautionary tale.

In Sinopoli v. Commissioner, approximately $291,000 was claimed over three years, while only about $16,500 was ultimately allowed.

The lesson?

The file is the strategy.

You'll learn why rental agreements, third-party market quotes, agendas, minutes, attendee lists and properly timed payments matter—and why those same business disciplines can become valuable when it's eventually time to sell your company.

Build Profit. Build Process. Build Value. Exit Rich.

Learn more at www.ProfitPilotTax.com

Educational purposes only. This is not individualized tax, legal or investment advice.

The stock market looks relatively quiet today.

But underneath the surface?

On one side:

🤖 NVIDIA + AI

NVIDIA just announced an enormous $150 BILLION stock buyback, while chip names including Applied Materials and Marvell are showing significant strength.

On the other:

📈 INTEREST RATES

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to roughly 5.26%—its highest level in years.

And here's the clue that tells us which force is really driving this market:

Oil dropped toward $90.

If oil were still the market's primary problem, falling oil should be giving stocks a meaningful lift.

It isn't.

That's the tell.

In today's Exit Rich…Retire Free Daily Read, Jeff Kikel breaks down the tug-of-war happening underneath a deceptively quiet market—and why NVIDIA's massive buyback is helping the AI trade fight against one of the biggest valuation headwinds investors have faced in years. Daily Read #32

What exactly does a stock buyback do?

When a company buys back its own shares, two things happen.

First, it reduces the number of shares outstanding.

That means each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.

Second, the company itself becomes a buyer of its own stock.

And in NVIDIA's case we're talking about:

That's an enormous potential source of demand.

It's one reason NVIDIA can trade higher even while rising interest rates are putting pressure on much of the rest of the market. Daily Read #32

The 10-year Treasury has climbed to approximately:

That's important well beyond the bond market.

Higher long-term rates affect:

🏠 Mortgages

💳 Borrowing costs

🏢 Business financing

📊 Stock valuations

And particularly:

That's why today's market is such an interesting tug-of-war.

You have one enormous force pulling downward:

📈 5.26% Treasury yields

And another pulling upward:

🤖 AI leadership + NVIDIA's $150 billion buyback

The result?

A market that looks quiet on the surface but is anything but quiet underneath. Daily Read #32

For much of September, oil was one of the biggest forces driving markets.

Today oil fell toward $90.

But stocks didn't surge.

Meanwhile, yields climbed and gold and silver came under significant pressure.

That tells us something important:

When the old driver reverses and the market doesn't respond the way you would expect, look for the new driver.

Right now:

🤖 OPENAI DEVDAY — TODAY

OpenAI's keynote could produce announcements capable of moving AI-related stocks.

💾 MICRON — WEDNESDAY AFTER THE CLOSE

Micron earnings provide another important read on AI memory demand and could influence the broader semiconductor group.

📈 10-YEAR TREASURY

This remains the big one.

If the 10-year keeps moving higher from roughly 5.26%, eventually even the strength in NVIDIA and AI may have trouble offsetting the pressure.

The Federal Reserve raised rates. Now what?

In Episode 162 of The Cents of Things, Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang look at what has historically happened to the stock market following a Fed rate increase—and why this particular cycle may be more complicated than the averages suggest.

Historically, markets have often experienced some weakness immediately following an initial rate hike before recovering over the following months. But Jeff explains why the reason the Fed is raising rates matters.

This time, the Fed is fighting inflation while energy prices remain elevated, particularly diesel fuel. That could make this cycle different from a more routine rate-hiking environment.

Jeff and Ron also discuss the remarkable strength of corporate earnings. Nearly 88% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates, while more companies are mentioning inflation during their earnings calls.

In this episode:

• What historically happens after the Fed raises rates
• Why the first several weeks can be difficult for stocks
• Average market performance six and twelve months after a hike
• Why an inflation-fighting rate cycle can behave differently
• Lessons from the 2022 tightening cycle
• Which market sectors have historically performed better after rate hikes
• Why financial stocks don't always benefit from higher rates
• The impact of elevated diesel and energy prices
• What CPI is telling us about inflation
• Why so many companies are mentioning inflation on earnings calls
• Nearly 88% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates
• The lag between a Fed decision and its effect on the economy
• Why markets may respond months before the economy does

Plus, Ron's This Week in History takes us from the signing of the Constitution and The Star-Spangled Banner to General Motors, the Soviet moon program, Mary Kay, Pop-Tarts, Jimi Hendrix and the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Smart Conversations. Stronger Financial Futures.

#CentsOfThings #Investing #FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarket #Inflation #FinancialEducation

Your 401(k) may have a feature hiding in plain sight that could allow you to move tens of thousands of additional dollars into Roth savings each year.

Check out the full article here: https://www.surehorizonretirement.com/mega-backdoor-roth-high-earners

It’s called the Mega Backdoor Roth — an unfortunately complicated name for a strategy that is actually pretty straightforward once you understand how it works.

In this episode of Retire Free, Jeff Kikel breaks down the Mega Backdoor Roth in plain English and explains why your 401(k) actually has two different contribution limits.

For 2026, most employees can defer $24,500 from their paycheck into a 401(k). But there is also a much larger $72,000 total contribution limit from all sources, before applicable catch-up contributions.

That difference can potentially create a significant amount of unused retirement savings room.

Jeff walks through the three basic steps:

1. Make an after-tax contribution to your 401(k)

2. Convert those dollars to Roth

3. Convert promptly to minimize taxable earnings

But there’s an important catch: not every 401(k) allows it.

Your employer's plan needs to permit after-tax employee contributions and provide a way to convert those dollars to Roth. Jeff explains exactly what to look for in your Summary Plan Description and what to ask your 401(k) recordkeeper.

You'll also hear why having access to a Mega Backdoor Roth doesn't necessarily mean it should be your next financial move.

Before committing additional money to retirement accounts, you may need to address your emergency reserves, accessible savings, other tax-advantaged accounts, and any significant concentration in company stock.

That's why Jeff considers the Mega Backdoor Roth a surplus-savings strategy — the last bucket you fill, not the first.

In this episode:

• The two 401(k) contribution limits most people don't know about
• How much additional 401(k) room you could potentially have
• How after-tax 401(k) contributions work
• How those contributions get converted to Roth
• Why the timing of your conversion matters
• The two plan features required for the strategy
• How to find out whether your employer's plan allows it
• The potential long-term value of Roth retirement income
• The liquidity trade-off you shouldn't overlook
• Where the Mega Backdoor Roth fits in your overall savings priorities

Learn more and read the complete article at Freedom Day Wealth Management.

Jeff Kikel

President / Chief Investment Officer

Freedom Day Wealth Management LLC

More Than A Finish Line.

Build Wealth. Protect What Matters. Live Free.

This episode is for educational purposes only and is not individualized investment or tax advice. Tax rules and retirement-plan provisions can change and vary by plan. Consult a qualified professional regarding your individual circumstances.

The AI boom isn't just being funded by extraordinary earnings. In some corners of the industry, it's also being funded by a lot of debt.

In Episode 162 of The Cents of Things, Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang examine debt-to-assets across companies participating in the AI infrastructure boom—and find a significant divide.

Large, profitable technology companies generally have the assets and revenue to support their borrowing. But some smaller AI infrastructure companies, data-center operators and former Bitcoin miners are taking on considerably more leverage as they race to participate in the AI buildout.

That works as long as capital keeps flowing.

But what happens when it doesn't?

Jeff and Ron also look at the history of market corrections since 1980 and explain why even strong years routinely include uncomfortable pullbacks.

• Why debt-to-assets matters when evaluating AI companies
• The difference between established technology leaders and second-tier AI players
• Oracle's growing debt load
• Why data-center businesses can require enormous amounts of capital
• CoreWeave and other highly leveraged AI infrastructure companies
• What happens if revenue can't support all that borrowing
• Why 5% market pullbacks are completely normal
• How often investors experience 10%, 15% and 20% declines
• Why September and October could bring additional volatility
• The debate over the Fed's next interest-rate decision
• Why Jeff believes the Fed may hold steady
• What PPI is telling us about inflation
• Why CPI is the week's consequential economic report
• How oil prices are affecting inflation
• Russia, Ukraine and disruptions to global energy markets

Plus, Ron takes us through This Week in History, including America's first submarine attack, the founding of the U.S. Treasury, Elvis Presley, Star Trek, Gerald Ford, the Panama Canal—and the surprisingly recent final use of the guillotine in France.

Smart Conversations. Stronger Financial Futures.

#CentsOfThings #Investing #AI #StockMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #FinancialEducation

Brent crude just crossed $100 a barrel.

But the most important part of today's story isn't simply that oil went up.

It's why oil stayed up.

Some of the scariest U.S.–Iran war headlines eased overnight. The U.S. military disputed Iranian claims that two U.S. Navy ships had been hit.

Normally, you'd expect some of that geopolitical risk premium to come back out of oil.

Instead:

That's an important signal.

When the panic headline fades but the price continues rising, the market may no longer be trading simply on fear.

It may be pricing a real supply problem.

In today's Exit Rich…Retire Free Daily Read, Jeff Kikel breaks down why disruptions involving both Iran and Russia are becoming increasingly important to global energy markets—and why $100 oil raises the stakes for inflation and the Federal Reserve.

🛢️ Brent: Above $100

🛢️ WTI: Around $95

📉 Dow: Down roughly 300 points

💻 Nasdaq: Recovered toward flat

📈 10-Year Treasury: Near 4.8%

🔥 Leadership: Energy

💪 Mega-Cap Standout: Meta +~5%

The market remains unusually divided.

Energy stocks are breaking out.

Mega-cap technology continues to show resilience.

But travel, cyclicals and other areas vulnerable to higher fuel costs are under pressure.

Yesterday, markets were reacting to fears about what might happen.

Today, some of those fears eased.

But oil didn't.

Why?

Because the physical supply story is becoming more important.

The U.S.–Iran conflict continues threatening important energy routes around the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are affecting another important source of global supply.

Those aren't simply changes in investor sentiment.

They're potential disruptions to the physical movement and production of energy.

And that gives us today's lesson:

A market can become less frightened by the headlines while the underlying economic problem continues getting worse.

The biggest issue isn't simply what you're paying at the gas pump.

Energy moves through the entire economy.

Higher fuel costs can affect:

🚚 Transportation

✈️ Airlines

🏭 Manufacturing

📦 Shipping

🌾 Agriculture

🛒 Consumer prices

Which brings us directly to this week's biggest economic story:

We get producer-price data first, followed by CPI Friday morning.

And now those reports arrive with $100 oil hanging over the market.

The latest spike won't necessarily be fully reflected in those reports because much of the measurement period occurred beforehand.

But it raises the stakes for what comes next.

And it complicates the Fed's job.

The stock market remains close to record highs. The largest companies continue generating extraordinary earnings.

So why are investors getting nervous?

In Episode 161 of The Cents of Things, Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang examine the growing disconnect between strong corporate earnings and increasingly cautious market psychology.

Ron looks at just how dominant the market's largest companies have become, including Google, Amazon and NVIDIA, and why investors who completely avoid the largest companies may risk falling behind the broader market.

But underneath those strong earnings, several warning signs are emerging.

The Fear & Greed Index has moved back toward fear. The junk-bond market is showing stress. The 10-year Treasury yield is moving higher. And historically difficult September seasonality is arriving just ahead of an important Federal Reserve meeting.

Jeff also reviews the week's economic calendar and explains why the upcoming jobs report could be particularly important for markets.

• Why the market's largest companies continue dominating earnings
• Google, Amazon, NVIDIA and the AI ecosystem
• Why broad-market index exposure can matter
• What the Fear & Greed Index is telling investors
• Why September seasonality deserves attention
• Warning signs coming from the bond market
• Why Jeff is moving into a more cautious "war footing"
• What Chairman Warsh's approach means for Fed watchers
• Why investors may need to interpret economic data themselves
• The U.S. national debt passing $40 trillion
• The growing cost of interest on federal debt
• ISM, ADP, trade and jobless-claims data
• Why the upcoming jobs report matters ahead of the Fed meeting

Plus, Ron takes us through another This Week in History, including the first Stars and Stripes, the founding of the U.S. Treasury, the discovery of penicillin, the first televised Major League Baseball game, the first ATM, and the discovery of the Titanic wreck.

Smart Conversations. Stronger Financial Futures.

#CentsOfThings #Investing #StockMarket #BigTech #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Economy #FinancialEducation

Companies mentioned in this episode:

• Briefing.com
• Google
• Amazon
• Nvidia
• Micron
• Alphabet
• Chevron
• Chemical Bank
• Chase Manhattan
• J.P. Morgan
• Bank of America
• Wachovia
• First Union
• Showtime

September has arrived—and right on cue, the stock market started the month RED.

The Nasdaq fell nearly 1%, small caps were even weaker, oil climbed back toward $88, and the 10-year Treasury yield moved near 4.77%.

But here's the question:

In today's Exit Rich…Retire Free Daily Read, Jeff Kikel breaks down why September has historically been such a difficult month for stocks, what actually drove today's selling, and why investors shouldn't confuse seasonality with destiny.

Today's market had a nasty combination:

🛢️ Rising oil

📈 Rising interest rates

🤖 Weakness in AI and semiconductor stocks

But something important was happening beneath the surface.

Money didn't simply disappear.

Capital moved away from the crowded AI trade and toward energy stocks, which were one of the few areas showing strength.

That's why today's decline looks more like a rotation than a rout.

September has historically been the stock market's weakest month.

And its record during midterm-election years has been particularly difficult.

There are several relatively mundane explanations:

• Institutional funds rebalance after summer

• Investors return from vacation more cautiously

• Portfolios get repositioned

• Market liquidity and money flows change

None of that means September must decline.

And it certainly doesn't mean every day in September will be negative.

That's the distinction that matters.

The wrong response is:

“It's September. Sell everything.”

That's superstition—not strategy.

Instead:

✔️ Be more selective

✔️ Expect some chop

✔️ Respect elevated risk

✔️ Keep some dry powder

✔️ Watch where the money is actually moving

As I discuss in today's episode, we've taken some profits in our own portfolios from AI-related positions that had enjoyed significant runs and moved some of that capital toward bonds and cash.

We didn't abandon the market.

We reduced exposure to areas that could be more sensitive to the current environment.

🇺🇸 FRIDAY — AUGUST JOBS REPORT

This becomes particularly important in the Fed's new “watch the data” environment.

🔥 Hot jobs → Rate-hike concerns increase

❄️ Softer jobs → Stocks may get some breathing room

Then:

🏦 SEPTEMBER 16 — FOMC

Another rate hike is genuinely on the table.

🔴 Direction: Negative

🔴 Breadth: Broadly weak; energy the exception

🔴 Rates/Credit: 10-year near 4.77%

🛢️ Oil: Near $88

🔄 Leadership: AI/chips → Energy

🟡 Confidence: Medium

🔴 Risk: Significantly elevated

00:00 – Welcome to September

00:30 – The Market's Most Feared Month Starts Red

00:50 – Regime Lab Flashes Caution

01:00 – Oil Near $88 & Rates Near 4.77%

01:20 – AI Sells While Energy Breaks Out

01:35 – Why September Has Such a Bad Reputation

02:05 – Why September Can Be Difficult

02:30 – Seasonality Is a Tilt, Not a Script

02:48 – Don't Sell Because the Calendar Changed

03:05 – How We're Positioning Our Own Portfolios

03:30 – Rotation, Not Collapse

03:48 – Friday's August Jobs Report

04:15 – The Fed's New “Watch the Data” Era

04:30 – September 16 FOMC Meeting

04:48 – Risk Is Elevated

05:05 – Keep Some Dry Powder

05:20 – Bottom Line: Stay Picky, Not Panicked

September's difficult history deserves respect.

It doesn't deserve panic.

Today's market wasn't indiscriminately falling apart.

Money was moving from crowded AI positions toward energy.

So as we enter what's historically been a challenging month:

Subscribe to Exit Rich…Retire Free for The Daily Read—our plain-English look at what the market is actually telling us.

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

For years, investors have been warned that the next recession is just around the corner.

And yet, the economic data continues to tell a more complicated story.

In Episode 160 of The Cents of Things, Jeff Kikel and Ron Lang examine the growing disconnect between how consumers feel about the economy and what consumers and businesses are actually doing.

Corporate earnings growth has reached its highest level since Q4 2021, with strength extending beyond technology into areas including healthcare and financials. Durable-goods orders exceeded expectations, GDP remains positive, and jobless claims remain relatively contained.

Housing, however, continues to tell a different story as high home prices and mortgage rates keep many buyers and sellers on the sidelines.

Jeff and Ron also discuss NVIDIA's growing investments across the AI ecosystem and compare today's enthusiasm with Cisco's expansion during the dot-com era.

• What NVIDIA's latest earnings tell us about AI
• The similarities—and differences—between NVIDIA and Cisco
• Why earnings growth is exceptionally strong
• Why strength is spreading beyond technology
• Why recession predictions can become dangerous for investors
• The importance of time in the market
• Why stocks historically rise more often than they fall
• September and October market seasonality
• What durable-goods orders tell us about spending
• Why housing remains an economic weak spot
• The latest GDP, PCE and jobless-claims data
• What investors should—and shouldn't—expect from Jackson Hole

Plus, another edition of This Week in History, from Jack the Ripper and Thomas Edison to The Beatles and Grease.

Smart Conversations. Stronger Financial Futures.

#CentsOfThings #Investing #Economy #StockMarket #Recession #NVIDIA #AI #FinancialEducation

Companies mentioned in this episode:

• Nvidia
• Salesforce
• Crowdstrike
• Cisco
• Tesla
• Apple
• Google
• Berkshire Hathaway
• GM
• Chrysler