Did you know that you can pay someone to give you advice on what to bet on? They can look at historical data like rushing and passing yards, touchdowns, and more—but so can we. Honestly, historical data can only tell us so much. If you bet on a game, you are really making a lucky guess.

Is it really so different with the stock market? When it comes to predictions—whether for the Super Bowl or the S&P 500—there is a lot of uncertainty. So, let’s break down how predictions are made and whether or not they should guide our investment decisions.

[bctt tweet="Predictions are everywhere—whether for the Super Bowl or the stock market. But how reliable are they? In episode 257 of Best in Wealth, we explore the dangers of betting on expert predictions and why diversification is key for your portfolio." username=""]

Outline of This Episode

Expert predictions for 2025

Most of the top analysts—Oppenheimer, Wells Fargo, Deutsche Bank, and others—are bullish, predicting that the S&P 500 will rise in 2025. The consensus seems to suggest that the market will average a 10% return, which has been the long-term norm. Oppenheimer Asset Management stands out with an optimistic prediction of 18.4%, implying that 2025 could be a great year for the market.

However, these predictions come with a significant caveat—the stock market, especially the S&P 500, is notoriously volatile. We have seen massive swings in the past, from a 38% drop in 2008 during the Great Recession to a 25% rise in 2024.

BCA Research, on the other hand, predicts a 25.8% drop, highlighting just how different expert opinions can be. This stark difference—43% apart between two top analysts—raises an important question: if the experts cannot agree, how reliable are their predictions? It is a reminder that while these predictions may be based on data, the unpredictability of the market remains ever-present.

[bctt tweet="Experts predict the future, but how often are they right? In episode 257 of Best in Wealth, we dive into the unpredictability of stock market forecasts and share why building a diversified portfolio is your best bet for long-term success." username=""]

Reviewing predictions from 2024

Did the experts hit the mark last year? The S&P 500 went up around 25% (with dividends) and 23.3% without dividends.

This discrepancy illustrates an important point: even the most well-educated and experienced analysts can be drastically wrong. It shows that predictions are based on what experts know at the time, but they can't account for the countless variables that influence market behavior throughout the year, such as political changes, economic developments, and unforeseen global events.

How do financial stewards build a portfolio?

The answer is diversification. Family stewards—those who manage wealth and invest for future generations—should focus on creating a well-rounded portfolio that can weather any storm. Rather than betting on predictions, diversify your investments across a wide range of asset classes: large-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, international investments, emerging markets, real estate, and bonds.

By spreading your investments out, you position your portfolio to perform well under different market conditions, regardless of what the experts predict. Instead of trying to outguess the market, family stewards invest for the long term, with a strategy that includes a mix of assets to capture growth while minimizing risk.

By building a diversified portfolio, you are not relying on a crystal ball or hoping for the best. Instead, you are ensuring that you are prepared for whatever comes, from market highs to lows.

[bctt tweet="Can we trust stock market predictions? In episode 257 of Best in Wealth, we look at why relying on expert forecasts can be risky and how diversification can provide more stability for your financial future. Don’t gamble with your portfolio!" username=""]

Resources Mentioned

Connect With Scott Wellens

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

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