AI is everywhere, from investing apps and portfolio tools to recipe planners and vacation organizers, artificial intelligence touches countless corners of our lives. In finance, AI promises accessibility. For newer investors, it’s a way to learn basic concepts, compare traditional and Roth IRAs, or understand the difference between tax brackets, all delivered in plain English.

AI is also a huge help with organization and financial efficiency. Need a budgeting framework or quick ways to categorize cash flow? AI can create those. It’s a handy pocket assistant that helps you plan and ask sharper questions when evaluating financial advisors or planning your future.

While AI is a powerful tool, it is not a decision maker. Here are the big dangers and drawbacks you need to keep in mind:

AI doesn’t bear the consequences of its advice. If it suggests an irreversible move, like a Roth IRA conversion, based on incomplete or incorrect information, the cost falls entirely on you.

AI delivers advice with absolute confidence, even when it’s wrong! Financial planning isn’t just numbers, it’s trade-offs, nuances, and judgment calls that factor in health, family dynamics, and personal emotional risk tolerance.

Most AI tools treat tax decisions generically just one year at a time. But real retirement tax planning means looking ahead 10, 15, or 20 years. Missed integration here can cost you tens, or even hundreds, of thousands of dollars over a career or lifetime.

AI assumes perfect discipline and zero life changes, no panic selling, no sudden need for funds. But human emotion, especially during retirement or volatile markets, often drives decisions.

AI’s confident answers may mask underlying complexity. A small financial misstep, repeated or compounded over decades, can grow into a massive problem down the road.

Emotions play a huge role in retirement and investment decisions. Life throws curveballs—loss, illness, market downturns, and AI cannot reframe your fears or keep you disciplined when things get tough.

Retirement planning isn’t about finding simple answers, information is cheap, wisdom is not. For complex questions, AI offers basic options, but it can’t weigh the sequence of return risk, or policy changes in real time, like a qualified advisor can. Human advisors coordinate, prioritize, and apply experience to your financial life. They support you through market cycles, health challenges, and family transitions, and recognize when purely rational advice doesn’t capture your real needs.

My advice is to use AI for learning and organization, not for important, irreversible lifestyle and tax decisions. Always double-check its work, and don’t outsource your financial future entirely to algorithms. Technology plus human judgment delivers the best outcomes. AI is a powerful tool, not a complete solution.

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Audio Production and Show notes by

https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

Tax laws may not be flashy, but understanding them can tilt the balance for your family’s finances and peace of mind. I am digging into the details of the much-talked-about “One Big Beautiful Tax Bill”, a huge piece of tax legislation that is set to impact families, retirees, and investors across the country.

I break down the most important highlights from the massive 870-page bill, focusing on what really matters for everyday listeners: permanent income tax brackets, bigger standard deductions, expanded SALT limits, and significant new deductions for seniors. 

Tune in for clear, actionable insights on the changes coming to your taxes, and learn how to make these updates work in your favor.

One of the most interesting aspects of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) is the permanent extension of the income tax brackets Americans have become accustomed to since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. Instead of the cliff that was looming at the end of 2024, current rates (10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37%) are now here to stay. This certainty means families, investors, and business owners can plan with clarity, knowing that the 10% and 12% brackets will not suddenly vanish.

But there’s more: in 2026, the 10% and 12% brackets will receive extra inflation adjustments, leading to a few hundred dollars of potential tax savings. While many American households may not climb out of the 12% bracket, those who do will benefit even more.

Another major win is the increase in the standard deduction, now $31,500 for married couples filing jointly and $15,750 for single filers, starting in 2025. Add in automatic inflation adjustments, and the vast majority of taxpayers are now better off taking the standard deduction rather than itemizing, unless big deductions, like SALT, tilt the scale.

Under OBBB, the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap explodes from $10,000 to $40,000, restoring much of the pre-2017 advantage. For married couples with large property and state income taxes, this unlocks greater ability to itemize rather than default to the standard deduction.

But this expanded cap begins phasing out for adjusted gross incomes above $500,000 and is gone by $600,000. Smart, ongoing tax planning, tracking income, maximizing deductions, and timing bonuses or retirement contributions can make the difference between using the full deduction or losing out.

For retirees, the bill introduces a temporary enhanced standard deduction: if you are over 65, you can deduct an additional $6,000 per person (that’s $12,000 for a married couple) in 2025-2028, on top of other standard deductions. It is available whether you itemize or not. This deduction is phased out for higher incomes—starting at $150,000 for married couples.

For planners and retirees considering Roth conversions or IRA withdrawals, being strategic about income in these years could mean paying zero tax on a significant chunk of retirement income.

Families will be happy to hear that the expanded Child Tax Credit is now permanent. It not only remains at $2,000, but is increased to $2,200 per qualifying child under 18, and (for the first time) will be indexed for inflation from 2026 onward. Income phaseouts apply, but most middle-class families can continue to count on this boost.

Lifetime estate and gift tax exemption is set high, $30 million for married couples, $15 million for singles, through 2026, giving ultra-high-net-worth families greater latitude in legacy planning.

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment, or legal advice.

Audio Production and Show Notes by

https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

Most investors have been ignoring international stocks lately because the US market has been performing so well—but that strategy might backfire this year, with international markets significantly outpacing American stocks.

In this episode, I dive into why diversifying globally is not just smart investing; it is essential for long-term wealth building. We explore how the US currently dominates 61% of world market capitalization, but history shows this was not always the case—and it will not necessarily continue.

I share four key reasons international investing should be part of your portfolio: it reduces geographic risk when any one country hits turbulence, gives you access to high-growth emerging markets that have delivered spectacular returns, protects you through currency diversification, and helps overcome the natural tendency to only invest in familiar companies.

The numbers tell a compelling story—while the S&P 500 is up around 12% this year, international developed markets are up nearly 30%, and some individual countries have delivered returns of 50-90% in recent years.

Whether you are completely US-focused or wondering how much international exposure makes sense for your situation, this episode provides the data and reasoning you need to build a more resilient, globally diversified portfolio. I also touch on an interesting parallel between portfolio diversification and gut health—turns out both benefit from variety and balance.

Broadening your approach—whether it is what you eat or where you invest—can improve your long-term outcomes. Did you know that we all have an ecosystem of microbes living within our intestines? Science increasingly shows that a highly diverse gut microbiome is linked to better health, well-being, and more healthy years well into old age. A thriving gut health requires at least 30 different types of plant-based foods each week. The greater the diversity, the more kinds of helpful bacteria can flourish, supporting everything from digestion to immunity.

Just as variety improves gut health, diversity is equally essential in investing. Many Americans have opted to remove international stocks from their portfolios, citing the recent dominance of U.S. markets. I want to push back on this trend, with these important points:

As of early 2024, U.S. markets make up approximately 61% of the world’s capitalization. The next-largest market, Japan, accounts for only 6%. While the U.S. is dominant now, this was not always the case. In the 1990s, Japan claimed over 40% of the world’s market cap, while the U.S. plunged to just 25%. History tells us that leadership rotates—sometimes rapidly.

Many investors overlook periods where international markets outperformed the U.S. For example, in recent years, Hungary, Turkey, and the Czech Republic each posted eye-popping returns, outpacing the U.S. significantly.

If you are still not convinced, here are some really good reasons for including global assets in your portfolio:

Global investing reduces the impact of a downturn in any single country—you will not suffer as heavily if one economy stumbles. It also balances your exposure through different economic and market cycles, smoothing out volatility and lowering overall risk.

Emerging markets and diverse sectors abroad can offer higher growth potential. Limiting yourself to U.S. stocks means missing out on global brands such as Toyota, Nestlé, and Samsung, as well as entire sectors less represented in America.

International investments provide natural protection against swings in the U.S. dollar. If the dollar weakens, non-dollar holdings often become more valuable, helping to preserve your purchasing power and hedge against domestic inflation.

Many investors naturally stick to what they know (sound familiar?). But with 40% of global investment opportunities outside the U.S., choosing not to invest abroad means intentionally missing out on nearly half the world’s growth potential.

I want to encourage you to review your own portfolio for international exposure. Start by checking what percentage is allocated overseas and ask—does this reflect your long-term interests, or just recent trends? Talk with your financial advisor to find a balance that suits your family’s goals. And remember: whether it is your gut or your investments, variety really is the spice of (a healthy, resilient) life.

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Audio Production and Show notes by

https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

We all have some worries, those everyday anxieties that creep into our lives—money, kids, jobs, and adding more stress to your life in the form of an investment portfolio can seem like too much at times. 

So this week, I am sharing how understanding one key financial theory can transform your approach to investing and seriously lower your stress.

This episode takes you through the groundbreaking work of Eugene Fama and the efficient market hypothesis, explaining why trying to outguess the market is usually a losing game.

I am also sharing how, by trusting the power of the market and building your strategy around solid, evidence-based principles, you can ditch investing anxiety and set your family up for long-term success.

So if market swings keep you up at night or you are looking for a more peaceful way to manage your portfolio, tune in for a fresh perspective and actionable advice on taking the stress out of investing—once and for all.

[00:00] Your foundation of knowledge to experience stress-free investing.

[05:58] Understanding Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).

[09:40] The power of market consensus.

[11:55] How fast does the stock market react?

[13:12] Efficient market hypothesis simplified.

[17:27] The myth of market-beating funds.

[19:22] Reduce investment stress by demystifying the market.

Retirement account fluctuations, big market drops like those in 2008, COVID-19, and trade war-related selloffs are enough to send anyone’s blood pressure soaring. One of the most important concepts in modern finance: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), developed by Nobel laureate Eugene Fama.

In simple terms, the EMH says that all the available information about any publicly traded company is already reflected in its stock price. Let’s use Apple as an example. Every day, millions of shares, worth billions of dollars, change hands, each trade representing someone who thinks Apple is fairly priced, and someone else who disagrees.

Crucially, both buyers and sellers have access to the same information. No one has a crystal ball; everyone’s predictions about future sales and profits are just that—educated guesses.

In a 20-year analysis of actively managed mutual funds, those run by managers trying to beat the market through skillful stock picking. Of the 1,667 funds analyzed on January 1, 2004, just 48% were still around 20 years later (the rest closed or merged after poor performance).

Of those survivors, only 16% managed to outperform the market—a sliver of winners, and no guarantee that their outperformance was due to skill rather than luck. Over longer periods, the odds get even worse. The market’s efficiency means that news, good or bad, gets priced in fast.

By the time you read about a hot tip or see a magazine headline, it is almost certainly too late to profit.

Adopting the efficient market approach means basing your investment strategy not on predictions, but on accepting that prices already reflect what is knowable. This data and science-driven approach is the bedrock for stress-free investing.

When you stop believing you or a mutual fund manager can consistently outguess millions of other market participants, everything changes:

Daily fluctuations stop feeling like emergencies.

Your plan is not derailed by shocking news or downturns.

Emotional decision-making is replaced by disciplined adherence to your long-term strategy.

This knowledge leads to better results, as you avoid the pitfalls and fees of chasing “winners” and trying to time the market.

The goal is not just to match the market, but to give you the greatest chance for success. By using low-cost investment tools that are aligned with the efficient market hypothesis (like broadly diversified index funds), you maximize your odds of building lasting family wealth—without sleepless nights.

When you understand and embrace the efficient market hypothesis, the mystique and the stress of the market fades away. Investing becomes a rational, controlled process anchored in decades of evidence, not hunches.

Eugene F. Fama

Schedule a discovery call with Scott

Send a message to Scott

Visit Fortress Planning Group

Connect with Scott on LinkedIn

Follow Scott on Twitter

Fortress Planning Group on Facebook

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Audio Production and Show Notes by

https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

Bitcoin and gold are two assets often hailed as safe havens and reliable stores of value. I explore whether bitcoin and gold really deliver the security investors hope for, or if, instead, they are more about speculation than true investment. 

I am helping you to look at the hard data and science behind financial decisions. Whether you are curious about market volatility or searching for a dependable way to safeguard your wealth, this episode is packed with practical insights about the pros and cons of investing in Bitcoin or gold.

[06:05] Bitcoin and gold are speculative, limited by supply and demand.

[09:29] Bitcoin is an unreliable store of value.

[13:57] Volatility and diversification in investing.

[16:58] Is gold really a safe haven for your money?

[20:18] Gold commercials push for sales due to high commissions, not safety.

[22:30] Investing relies on data and science to build successful portfolios, focusing on controlling taxes, expenses, and risk.

What makes you feel secure? Fresh from a nine-night family trip to a volleyball tournament in Dallas, I have realized that my real safe haven is not a lockbox or a password, it is my home and the daily routine I return to. More than that, my family represents my ultimate store of value, the core “asset” I am committed to nurturing year after year.

For me, investing is just one facet of a broader stewardship, protecting not only wealth but also the relationships and routines that bring lasting fulfillment.

Clients often ask me, “Can Bitcoin act as a reliable store of value?” so I’ve dug into the numbers. Since 2010, the annualized volatility of Bitcoin has been a staggering 76.9%, nearly five times greater than the already-risky Russell 3000 index, which clocks in at 15.8%.

Over the same period, Bitcoin has endured 27 separate 10% drops, 10 plunges of 30% or more, and five catastrophic 70% crashes. By contrast, the mainstream US stock market has only seen six 10% drops and a single 30% drawdown.

Investing in bitcoin with this type of volatility is not a store of value. Investing in Bitcoin is speculation. The wild swings may excite thrill-seekers, but anyone seeking stability is likely to be disappointed.

What about gold, the classic safe-haven asset? Gold has enjoyed some positive years, up 60% of the time since 1970, but it is hardly a guarantee. That means in roughly four out of every ten years, gold investors have faced losses.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500, ironically, the very market from which gold investors typically flee, has delivered positive returns 80% of those years.

Plus, the marketing of gold is driven by high-commission sales tactics, not genuine concern for investor safety. Beware of those “buy gold now” ads; they exist to line the pockets of sellers, not to deliver real security to buyers.

Rather than relying on speculative assets, I prefer a scientific, data-driven approach to investing. At Fortress Planning Group, this means diversified exposure to thousands of companies striving to increase their value through hard work and innovation.

My framework focuses on dimensions of higher expected return, not chasing the latest shiny object or giving in to fear-based pitches. I prefer to adjust risk through a prudent mix of stocks and bonds, finding a portfolio that matches your personal risk tolerance and the required rate of return.

The bedrock of real security lies in controlling what you can: expenses, taxes, and risk.

True security comes not from betting on volatile assets but from a disciplined, evidence-based investment plan, and from investing in your family and daily life. As you consider your own safe havens and stores of value, follow the data, seek out trustworthy advice, and build systems that support both your financial and personal well-being.

Bitcoin: A Crumby Way to Save For Later by Kristi Higgins

Wes Crill on LinkedIn 

Schedule a discovery call with Scott

Send a message to Scott

Visit Fortress Planning Group

Connect with Scott on LinkedIn

Follow Scott on Twitter

Fortress Planning Group on Facebook

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Audio Production and Show Notes by

https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

Let’s unpack six of the top retirement misconceptions, from whether it is okay to splurge in retirement, to the necessity of paying off your mortgage before you retire, and the real risks that retirees face beyond just a stock market crash. 

With a focus on helping family stewards make smart decisions for a secure financial future, I share practical advice, real-life scenarios, and encouragement to help you confidently prepare for and enjoy your retirement years.

If you want to separate fact from fiction and build a retirement plan that truly fits your life and goals, then this episode is for you. 

[04:45] Debunking common myths.

[09:43] Donate now for tax benefits and immediate impact.

[10:54] Spending in retirement is encouraged to enjoy life and create memories, rather than hoarding savings.

[17:34] Diversified portfolios mitigate financial risk during market downturns.

[20:12] Stay vigilant against fraud by protecting your personal information.

Retirement is often framed as the finish line in your financial journey, but the path leading up to and through that milestone is cluttered with well-intentioned advice, social media sound bites, and downright misleading myths.

As Scott Wellens, certified financial planner and host of the Best in Wealth podcast, points out in episode 260, it’s time for successful family stewards to challenge conventional wisdom and make decisions grounded in reality, not rumors.

Let’s unpack and expand on six of the most common retirement myths, using Scott’s insights to guide your way toward a smarter, more satisfying retirement.

Many savers believe that a single splurge in retirement, a long-awaited RV, a dream vacation, or a lavish family gathering, could derail their entire retirement plan. If you’ve saved diligently and want to use a portion for a one-time purchase, the impact on your annual withdrawal can be minimal.

For those following the “4% rule," buying a $50,000 RV from a $3 million portfolio reduces sustainable annual withdrawals by only about $2,000, a small sacrifice for a lifelong dream.

Retirement is about enjoying the fruits of your labor. With proper planning and a clear understanding of your cash flows, strategic splurges are not only possible but can enrich your retirement experience.

It’s noble to want to support causes after you are gone, but waiting to give can rob you of witnessing the impact your generosity brings. Giving while alive has both tangible and intangible benefits: not only do you receive immediate tax deductions and may reduce potential estate taxes, but you also get a front-row seat to the good your money is doing.

A thoughtful plan lets you balance living well and giving generously today, maximizing both legacy and personal fulfillment.

Is hoarding your savings really the best way to reward yourself after a lifetime of work? Many retirees spend less than they could, leading to regrets about missed opportunities. The ultimate goal is to utilize your resources to create lasting memories, whether that’s through travel, experiences with loved ones, or acts of generosity.

Do not let fear lead to deprivation. With a flexible plan and clear spending guidelines, you can confidently enjoy and share what you’ve built.

Being mortgage-free sounds ideal, but it’s not a strict requirement. Many retirees successfully manage their remaining mortgages as part of their retirement strategy. Don’t rashly withdraw large sums from tax-deferred accounts to pay off a mortgage, which could trigger an unnecessarily high tax bill.

Evaluate your circumstances, and consider a phased approach or maintaining a low-interest mortgage alongside a diversified portfolio.

Reverse mortgages once carried a shady reputation, but increased regulation has made them a much safer tool. While not for everyone, reverse mortgages can offer a critical safety net, especially for those planning for longevity, unexpected expenses, or wanting to front-load spending in the early, active years of retirement.

Work with a fiduciary advisor to determine if a reverse mortgage fits into your personalized retirement plan.

Markets can be volatile, but Scott highlights that portfolio diversification and strategic withdrawal plans shield most retirees from a single crash becoming catastrophic. Instead, the growing threat is fraud and scams, especially as retirees become more vulnerable to sophisticated fraudsters.

Stay vigilant against scams, practice good digital hygiene, and educate yourself and your loved ones on how to protect personal information.

The myths surrounding retirement can cause unnecessary stress, fear, and missed opportunities. By debunking these misconceptions and working with trustworthy, fee-only fiduciary advisors, you can approach retirement with confidence: ready to spend, give, and enjoy your wealth without regret.

6 More Retirement Financial Myths to Avoid by Sheryl Morningstar

Schedule a discovery call with Scott

Send a message to Scott

Visit Fortress Planning Group

Connect with Scott on LinkedIn

Follow Scott on Twitter

Fortress Planning Group on Facebook

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Audio Production and Show Notes by

https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

In this episode, inspired by my own family life, I am exploring the "holy trinity of assets": time, health, and money. Financial wealth alone does not guarantee a fulfilling future; you also need to be intentional about your health and your relationships. I share practical ways to extend the magical period of life where you can enjoy all three assets, without sacrificing your well-being in the pursuit of wealth. 

Tune in to hear my strategies for prioritizing your health, making the most of your time, and building wealth that enriches every stage of life. Get ready to rethink your priorities and be inspired to make changes that will let you enjoy not just a long life, but a long life full of vitality and purpose.

[00:00] My perspective on how to prepare for life's best stage

[05:35] The first stage of Life is youth: abundant time and health, but little money

[09:35] Stage two: Prioritize health over wealth, but balance both

[11:15] Focus on the big health priorities: exercise, eat better, and sleep better

[16:03] How to spend when markets are chaotic

[19:44] Prioritize key aspects of life to improve well-being

When you think about building wealth and securing your future, what comes to mind? For most, it's a picture filled with investment portfolios, retirement accounts, and property. But money is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. To truly thrive and make the most of our time on earth, we must learn to value and actively nurture not just financial assets but also our time and our health.

Tony Isola’s article, "The Holy Trinity of Assets," divides life into three main stages:

Youth:

This is a period rich with time and health. As kids, we possess endless energy and countless hours to fill, even if we are broke. Despite lacking financial resources, we are wealthy in ways money cannot buy.

Midlife:

For many, midlife brings growing financial stability and, often, good health. The catch? Time becomes scarce. Pursuing career goals, raising families, and climbing the professional ladder quickly fill our calendars.

Old Age:

Retirement can bring a return of time and (hopefully) sufficient money. However, health often begins to slip. The dreams of finally enjoying life can be hampered by physical limitations that decades of neglect may have fostered.

There is a magical, fleeting window between midlife and old age when you can possess all three assets: health, time, and money. The real goal is to extend this stage as long as possible.

We need to be disciplined and intentional to maximize this golden intersection of good health, time, and wealth. Here’s how:

Many high achievers invest tirelessly in growing their financial resources, but your health deserves the same, if not more, attention. When illness arises, the most common wish is for more good years, not more dollars. If you would not neglect your savings, do not neglect your body.

Research and my own experience show that consistent movement and strength training are vital, especially as we age. A simple, actionable approach is to aim for at least 30 minutes of exercise daily. Walking briskly, resistance training, or even bodyweight exercises can maintain and enhance muscle mass, joint health, and vitality.

Our modern environment makes unhealthy eating easy. Scott emphasizes the importance of choosing whole, protein-rich foods over highly processed carbohydrates. This doesn’t mean an extreme diet is necessary; focus on small, sustainable changes: increase protein, reduce processed snacks, and be mindful of what you put on your plate.

A cornerstone of well-being is adequate sleep. Protecting seven to eight hours each night helps your body repair, your mind recharge, and your immune system function at its best. It is not just about living longer, it is about living better, every day.

While markets, world events, and even certain aspects of our health are unpredictable, there is much you can control. Be deliberate about where you spend your energy and attention. Optimize your finances, yes, but do not let that come at the expense of quality time or physical vitality.

There will always be chaos and things outside our control. But by taking charge of your health, time, and money, you set yourself up to live longer and enjoy more years filled with purpose and joy. As Scott’s wife cheers from the volleyball stands, “Be ready!” Ready to claim the best stage of your life, starting now. 

The Holy Trinity Of Assets - A Teachable Moment by Tony Isola 

Schedule a discovery call with Scott

Send a message to Scott

Visit Fortress Planning Group

Connect with Scott on LinkedIn

Follow Scott on Twitter

Fortress Planning Group on Facebook

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment, or legal advice.

Audio Production and Show Notes by

https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

Do downturns in the stock market inevitably lead to down years? On the show this month, I am walking you through an analysis of U.S. market trends over the past two decades, illustrating how downturns, even severe ones, often do not spell disaster for annual returns. I will also share what savvy family stewards can do to weather these turbulent times and potentially capitalize on them.

From practical strategies like Roth conversions and strategic rebalancing to steering clear of emotionally driven decisions, this episode is packed with insights to help you take family stewardship wealth to the next level. Tune in to see how a long-term, data-driven outlook can lead to more confident investing, regardless of market swings. 

[3:31] Do downturns lead to down years?

[8:22] This is a volatile year for US stocks, but international companies did better.

[11:44] Stay invested; the market rebounds quickly.

[14:15[ Post-crash market rebound patterns.

[18:43] My guide to strategically rebalancing your portfolio.

Between 2005 and 2024, the U.S. stock market witnessed only three negative years out of twenty, a testament to its resilience. Despite experiencing several downturns during those years, market recovery was the norm. For instance, although 2020 began with a staggering 35% downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it ended 21% up.

Similarly, in 2011, despite a 20% downturn during the year, the market concluded with a positive return. This historical perspective highlights the fleeting nature of downturns and underscores the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach to investing during turbulent times.

A critical question for investors is whether downturns inevitably result in negative annual returns. Over the past twenty years, analysis reveals that downturns rarely dictate an entire year's trajectory. 17 out of the last 20 years ended positively, despite intra-year downturns ranging from 6% to as high as 35%.

The takeaway here is significant: short-term market fluctuations do not always translate into negative returns, emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective and patience.

Many investors, spooked by temporary market declines, resort to withdrawing their investments, potentially locking in losses. Instead, remaining invested allows one to benefit from eventual recoveries. Data shows that three-day drops, like the 11% decline recorded recently, are usually followed by substantial gains over the subsequent year, three years, and five years. Investors who maintain discipline through these downturns often see their portfolios grow significantly when the market rebounds.

For those unsure how to act during a downturn, consider these proactive measures:

Avoid Constant Monitoring:

Constantly checking your investment portfolio during a downturn can lead to emotional decision-making. Once your strategy is in place, trust your plan and avoid frequent account reviews that can heighten anxiety and fear, potentially driving impulsive actions.

Roth Conversions:

Market downturns present an opportune time for Roth conversions, allowing investors to transfer investments into a Roth IRA at reduced valuations. As the market recovers, gains in the Roth IRA grow tax-free, maximizing long-term benefits.

Tax Loss Harvesting:

When markets dip, investors can sell losing investments to offset capital gains taxes. This tax-efficient strategy enables the reinvestment of proceeds in similar securities to maintain the desired asset allocation while benefiting from potential tax reductions.

Strategic Rebalancing:

Another critical step is rebalancing portfolios by purchasing undervalued stocks during a downturn. By strategically realigning asset allocations, investors set the stage for potential gains when the market rebounds. Navigating market downturns confidently requires understanding their historical context and implementing practical strategies. These periods, though challenging, are fertile ground for growth when approached with discipline and foresight.

Whether through Roth conversions, tax loss harvesting, or rebalancing, taking controlled, strategic actions can position family stewards to capitalize on eventual market recoveries. By focusing on what can be controlled and maintaining a long-term outlook, investors align themselves with historical trends that favor resilience and recovery in the stock market.

Brian D. Cayon on LinkedIn 

Schedule a discovery call with Scott

Send a message to Scott

Visit Fortress Planning Group

Connect with Scott on LinkedIn

Follow Scott on Twitter

Fortress Planning Group on Facebook

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment, or legal advice.

Audio Production and Show notes by

https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

Did you know that you can pay someone to give you advice on what to bet on? They can look at historical data like rushing and passing yards, touchdowns, and more—but so can we. Honestly, historical data can only tell us so much. If you bet on a game, you are really making a lucky guess.

Is it really so different with the stock market? When it comes to predictions—whether for the Super Bowl or the S&P 500—there is a lot of uncertainty. So, let’s break down how predictions are made and whether or not they should guide our investment decisions.

[bctt tweet="Predictions are everywhere—whether for the Super Bowl or the stock market. But how reliable are they? In episode 257 of Best in Wealth, we explore the dangers of betting on expert predictions and why diversification is key for your portfolio." username=""]

Outline of This Episode

[1:13] The Super Bowl: What you can bet on?

[2:30] Why are we trusting betting experts?

[7:50] Expert predictions for 2025

[11:32] Reviewing predictions from 2024

[18:06] How do we build a portfolio?

Expert predictions for 2025

Most of the top analysts—Oppenheimer, Wells Fargo, Deutsche Bank, and others—are bullish, predicting that the S&P 500 will rise in 2025. The consensus seems to suggest that the market will average a 10% return, which has been the long-term norm. Oppenheimer Asset Management stands out with an optimistic prediction of 18.4%, implying that 2025 could be a great year for the market.

However, these predictions come with a significant caveat—the stock market, especially the S&P 500, is notoriously volatile. We have seen massive swings in the past, from a 38% drop in 2008 during the Great Recession to a 25% rise in 2024.

BCA Research, on the other hand, predicts a 25.8% drop, highlighting just how different expert opinions can be. This stark difference—43% apart between two top analysts—raises an important question: if the experts cannot agree, how reliable are their predictions? It is a reminder that while these predictions may be based on data, the unpredictability of the market remains ever-present.

[bctt tweet="Experts predict the future, but how often are they right? In episode 257 of Best in Wealth, we dive into the unpredictability of stock market forecasts and share why building a diversified portfolio is your best bet for long-term success." username=""]

Reviewing predictions from 2024

Did the experts hit the mark last year? The S&P 500 went up around 25% (with dividends) and 23.3% without dividends.

Oppenheimer, the most bullish of the experts, predicted a modest 8% increase, but the market ended up being nearly three times better than that!

Many other firms—Goldman Sachs, BMO, Bank of America—also predicted positive returns, but the actual outcome was far beyond their expectations.

In a striking example, some analysts predicted that the S&P 500 would finish the year with negative returns—forecasts that couldn’t have been further from reality.

This discrepancy illustrates an important point: even the most well-educated and experienced analysts can be drastically wrong. It shows that predictions are based on what experts know at the time, but they can't account for the countless variables that influence market behavior throughout the year, such as political changes, economic developments, and unforeseen global events.

How do financial stewards build a portfolio?

The answer is diversification. Family stewards—those who manage wealth and invest for future generations—should focus on creating a well-rounded portfolio that can weather any storm. Rather than betting on predictions, diversify your investments across a wide range of asset classes: large-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, international investments, emerging markets, real estate, and bonds.

By spreading your investments out, you position your portfolio to perform well under different market conditions, regardless of what the experts predict. Instead of trying to outguess the market, family stewards invest for the long term, with a strategy that includes a mix of assets to capture growth while minimizing risk.

By building a diversified portfolio, you are not relying on a crystal ball or hoping for the best. Instead, you are ensuring that you are prepared for whatever comes, from market highs to lows.

[bctt tweet="Can we trust stock market predictions? In episode 257 of Best in Wealth, we look at why relying on expert forecasts can be risky and how diversification can provide more stability for your financial future. Don’t gamble with your portfolio!" username=""]

Resources Mentioned

Prediction Season by Dimensional Fund Advisors

Connect With Scott Wellens

Schedule a discovery call with Scott

Send a message to Scott

Visit Fortress Planning Group

Connect with Scott on LinkedIn

Follow Scott on Twitter

Fortress Planning Group on Facebook

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

Audio Production and Show notes by

https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

Today, I am sharing something that my family has fallen in love with—The Clever Fox Dated Planner. This planner goes beyond simple scheduling with features like a gratitude section, vision board, habit tracker, and tools for setting and achieving SMART goals. It is designed to help you reflect, plan, and improve every week. If you are ready to take control of your time and goals, let me tell you all about it!

[bctt tweet="Start 2025 strong with the Clever Fox Dated Planner! This isn’t just a planner—it’s a tool to reflect, set SMART goals, track habits, and create a vision for your year. My family loves it, and I know you will too. #SMARTGoals #Habits #Goals #Planner" username=""]

Outline of This Episode

(1:09) I hope you had a wonderful Christmas and New Year!

(2:36) The planner that we bought for the entire family

(15:45) Spend some time zeroing in on your goals for 2025

The planner that we bought for the entire family

We bought the Clever Fox Dated Planner with habit trackers for goal setting and time management for everyone in the family. Though we were a bit worried that they would not be excited, surprisingly, everyone loved it.

But why do I love this planner so much? Because of everything it includes:

How-to Guide: It comes with a pamphlet, “How this planner works.” They tell you where to begin, what to think about, and share examples.

Gratitude and Self-Awareness: This section gives you space to write down what you are grateful for and passionate about.

Daily Rituals: This is an opportunity to think about the skills you want to learn and habits you want to adopt. Maybe a ritual is drinking more water, meditating, or going to the gym.

Affirmations: Short sentences with an optimistic tone stated in the present tense, i.e., “I am an architect of my life.” They give you confidence.

Vision Board: They provide a two-page outlay where you can create your vision and get clear on what you want from life.

Goals: You are given space to write three goals for each of these sections: health & fitness, business & career, personal development, relationships, family & friends, fun & recreation, and spirituality.

Mind-Map: This section helps you take the big goals you have written down and break them down into smaller pieces.

Monthly Page: This is a full page just like a typical planner (months January through January). It includes areas to write notes and goals.

Weekly pages: This allows you to write out the week’s main goals, priorities, etc.

Habit Tracker: You can write down things you want to turn into habits. It allows you to check a box for each day.

Each weekly section includes an area where you can write down how you will improve the next week. What did you not do that you should have? How can you improve the next day and week?

[bctt tweet="Why do I love the Clever Fox Planner? It’s packed with features: Gratitude & affirmations, vision board, goal-setting tools, weekly reflection, and a habit tracker. It’s everything you need to stay organized and crush your 2025 #goals. #Gratitude #BestInWealth #Planner " username=""]

Implement SMART goals

I try to record an episode about goal-setting at the beginning of every year and always encourage you to make sure that your goals are SMART:

Specific

Measurable

Achievable

Relevant

Time-Bound

Your goal might be to pay off a credit card by the end of the year. Maybe it is to run a half-marathon by June 15th. Here is my challenge: Write out five SMART goals you want to achieve in 2025 (and it will be far easier to track with a planner like this!).

[bctt tweet="Set yourself up for success in 2025 with SMART goals! Make sure your goals are Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-Bound. This approach will keep you focused and motivated throughout the year. Start planning today! #SMARTGoals #GoalSetting" username=""]

Resources Mentioned

Clever Fox Dated Planner 

How to Build Your Family Fortress, Ep #156

Connect With Scott Wellens

Schedule a discovery call with Scott

Send a message to Scott

Visit Fortress Planning Group

Connect with Scott on LinkedIn

Follow Scott on Twitter

Fortress Planning Group on Facebook

Audio Production and Show notes by

https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.