Lots of folks are hoping that 2022 will be better than last year, but can investors afford to be that optimistic? Many analysts will tell you that stocks are overvalued right now. Does that mean we’re heading for a serious market correction? Investing expert Mark Bill joins Rob West today to help answer that question.
Mark Biller is executive editor atSound Mind Investing.
One of the core appeals of Sound Mind Investing is that they provide an investment framework that isn’t built on forecasting. That’s unusual, because most of the investing worldisdriven by forecasts.
Instead, SMI relies primarily on trend-following strategies, which means we don’t have to continually try to figure out what the market is going to do next. That’s a good thing, because most forecasts end up being wrong anyway.
However, Mark Biller notes that the main vulnerability of trend-following strategies happens around market turning points, when the market is transitioning from one long-term trend to a new one.
So in theirJanuary SMI newsletter, he outlined the reasons why SMI thinks the market is likely to experience one of those big trend changes this year and why investors may want to consider additional safeguards.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT
Over the past two to three decades, and certainly since the Financial Crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve has increasingly taken actions that have caused investors to believe that the Fed will rescue them any time the financial markets start to slide. We’ve seen the Fed step in over and over again to rescue the financial markets when they fall, by cutting interest rates and initiating Quantitative Easing policies that support asset prices and investors.
While the early examples of this go all the way back to 1987 and 1998, this Fed intervention in markets became a more-or-less permanent feature after the Financial Crisis in 2008. Every significant market decline over the past dozen years has been met with quick Fed intervention, which has caused every recent downturn to be short-lived and shallow. Investors haven’t had to deal with a sustained bear market in more than a dozen years. Therefore, we now have a whole generation of investors conditioned to buy every market dip because the Fed won’t let markets fall.
The past dozen years has shown that the Fed could essentially get away with constantly stimulating financial markets without there being any immediately obvious negative consequences. This article explains why we think that may be changing.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
When the COVID crisis hit two years ago, the Federal Government provided massive fiscal stimulus directly to individuals and businesses. That was a game-changer.
Big picture, the Fed’s quantitative easing support of the past dozen years tended to stay within the financial system. In other words, it inflated asset prices but didn’t create the broad consumer inflation that many expected it to.
When COVID hit and the Government put trillions of dollars directly into people’s hands, that money went straight into the regular economy. And we’ve seen the impact of that as inflation has soared. That Government spending did exactly what it was intended to do, which was stop the most significant global recession in generations dead in its tracks. But it also reversed the 40-year disinflationary trend and unleashed the first bout of significant inflation that this generation of investors and central bankers has had to grapple with.
IMPACT OF INFLATION
Mark contends that inflation is the game-changer.
Most investors agree that a significant driver of this huge 12-year stock bull market has been the constant liquidity provided by the Fed. Now the Fed is explicitly telling investors that they intend to take that liquidity away by stopping their asset purchases and eventually raising interest rates. That’s a big change to the market environment. Every time the Fed has tried to pare back the liquidity they provide to the markets over the past dozen years, the stock market has experienced a significant decline.
So that’s the obvious implication of inflation the Fed is having to rapidly change their policies due to inflation running hot.
The less obvious follow-on effect is what happens next if the stock market drops 20% at some point this year. Since 2008, 20% has been roughly the Fed’s pain tolerance that’s the level that has caused them to step back in and start supporting the stock market again.
But all of those prior cases occurred when inflation was super low. That’s why inflation is potentially the game changer today. If the market falls and the Fed races in to support investors as they have in the past, they risk pouring gas on the inflationary fire. For the first time in a long time, the Fed is going to have to balance fighting inflation against supporting asset markets. Investors could be in for a surprise, because it may be harder for the Fed to ride to the rescue this time around due to inflation pressures.
FACTORS THAT COULD CAUSE MARKET DECLINE
The first potential catalyst for a market decline is slowing economic growth. The smi article explains why they think we’ll see weaker growth data as we get into the second quarter of this year.
The second potential catalyst is the fact that we have an unfavorable political calendar ahead. SMI has done research in the past that shows the six months leading up to mid-term elections are by far the worst six months, on average, of each four-year political cycle. Not only is the average return in these pre-mid-term periods worse than the rest of the cycle, but there is a much higher rate of significant declines during these periods. This part of the cycle stretches from May-October of this year. While SMI wouldn’t normally put much weight on that by itself, the fact that this timing coincides with all of the other catalysts gives it a bit more weight.
The third is the looming fiscal cliff. This year, the federal deficit is forecast to decline by a huge amount nearly 4% of U.S. GDP. Reducing those deficits is probably the right thing to do, but it’s clearly another market support that is being removed this year. Looking around the rest of the world, all of the largest countries are dramatically reducing their spending. So this massive global tailwind for financial markets is rapidly disappearing.
And the last catalyst is perhaps the most concerning, and that is the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed discussed earlier. THE most important investing lesson of the past dozen years is that modern financial markets are driven by central bank liquidity. Every time the Fed has tried to cut that liquidity back, the stock market has stumbled. It’s hard to see why that will be different this time.
HOW TO PREPARE
How investors should prepare depends on what their investment posture looks like now. SMI strategies already have some defensive capabilities built in. So SMI investors likely do not need to take significant additional steps to protect their portfolios. However, SMI included aseparate articlein the January newsletter that discussed several easy ways to add defensive protection to their portfolios.
For listeners who aren’t following SMI strategies, the goal here is really just to make them aware that a significant change to the market environment may be looming.
Mark contends that the risks are significant enough to warrant shifting focus away from maximizing gains which has been the posture of most investors for the past year-and-a-half toward minimizing risk.
Beyond that, if you already have a fairly defensive portfolio, you may not need to change anything. If you have an aggressive portfolio with lots of growth stocks or other riskier assets, you should probably at least think about how you would handle a 20% or greater correction in those prices.
However, most investors who are employing a well diversified,long-termdollar-cost averaging strategy probably won’t need to make any big changes, provided they’re not close to retirement.
But if they are concerned, they can tweak their allocations to be a bit more conservative.
The biggest challenge is for those who are either already retired or getting close to retirement. They don’t have as much time to recover from bear markets.
HOW TO GET MORE CONSVERATIVE
If you choose to make your investment portfolio more conservative, Mark says the easiest way to do that is to reduce the allocation to stocks and increase the allocation to bonds. Beyond that, tilting toward value stocks rather than growth stocks could help. Also, consider more diversification into things like real estate, commodities, even a small amount of gold.
You can read more about changes coming in SMI’s article, Winds of Change Are Blowing: Casting a Wary Eye on 2022.
LISTENER QUESTIONS
On today’s program, Rob also answers listener questions:
●What factors determine whether it’s wise to purchase a vacation property?
●What is the best way to use the proceeds from the sale of an inherited home?
●How do you manage a Roth IRA with a previous employer when changing jobs?
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