To paraphrase Thomas Jefferson, The principle of spending money under the name of funding to be paid back later is really swindling the future on a large scale. We must not let our leaders load us with perpetual debt. The founders could never have envisioned today’s 28-trillion-dollar national debt. Today we’ll discuss this critical topic with economist Jerry Bowyer and how it affects your finances.
Jerry Bowyer is the chief economist at Vident Financial. He’s also the editor of TownHall Financial and occasionally writes for National Review.
Jerry, it’s your recent article in National Review that we want to talk about with the CBO saying that our new debt projections are already obsolete. What were those projections and why are they no longer valid?
Jerry’s answer:Earlier this month, the Congressional Budget Office released its Long-Term Budget Outlook. A couple of weeks later, the CBO director warned that the report didn’t take into account the recently signed American Rescue Plan Act which is projected to increase the federal deficit by $1.9 trillion from 2021 through 2031, mainly by increasing spending. So, how bad are things without counting the bad effects of a bill with a name that promises to rescue us? In the long-term, the CBO thinks that things are going to be pretty bad. Growth expectations are falling, mainly because of demographic trends. It puts potential growth over the next ten years at 1.8 percent per year, which is well below historic rates since 1950.
In the past, we’ve always been able to grow our way out of debt problems, effectively lowering the percentage of debt compared to the GDP or gross domestic product. Would that not be the case going forward?
Jerry’s answer: It doesn’t look that way. The projected GDP growth of just 1.8% is primarily due to a lower potentiallabor force.In other words, there are some limits to how much we can supply-side our way out of this, since supply-side economics is about changing individual incentives, which presupposes that there are enough people around to be incentivized into boosting supplies of goods and services. Of course, per capita GDP can grow, but to service our enormous debt obligations and entitlement programs, we need large aggregate increases in wealth creation.
You’ll sometimes hear analysts say that immigration is the key to growing our way out of this mess. Is that the case?
Jerry’s answer: The CBO shows that even to maintain its modest population-growth outlook, we will need a lot of immigrants.Butthis creates a serious dilemma: Our economy needs immigrants to grow, but high rates of immigration seem to fuel social tensions.
And what’s more troubling from a macroeconomic point of view is that the high levels of immigration appear to be shifting voting patterns toward the low-growth coalition. In other words, if we invite enough immigrants to grow the population enough to beat the new normal’ growth rates, do we risk simultaneously shifting the electoral balance toward the kind of policies that push us back down to low growth? The one cancels out the other.
As fertility rates remain below the replacement rate (the rate required for a generation to exactly replace itself), immigration plays an increasingly important role in population growth. In CBO’s projections, deaths exceed births by 2044, indicating that without immigration, the population would decline. Thereafter, population growth is driven entirely by immigration.
So, assuming that the CBO’s outlook is right about growth potential, what does our fiscal future look like?
Jerry’s answer:Growing deficits are projected to drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels over the next 30 years. By 2051, debt is projected to reach more than 200 percent of gross domestic product, twice as high as during the Pandemic, World War II or the Great Depression. Most of the scariest stuff is projected over those 30 yearsmeaning, it’s something that might happen but a lot of the frightening stuff has already happened between 2008 to now.
Of course, the government’s ability to service that enormous debt is greatly affected by interest rates. What’s the Federal Reserve’s role in this gloomy scenario?
Jerry’s answer:All of this also assumes no big spike in interest rates. This is based on Goldilocks-like interest-rate assumptions, which means that it has embedded into it continued debt monetization. If the Fed doesn’t play ball, the interest portion of debt services will kick in a lot faster. The Fed has already signaled that it will act to rescue America from the American Rescue Plan Act both by keeping its target rate low and by indicating in its most recent meeting that it intends to continue to do so.
Given the rising importance of interest on the national debt, it’s unlikely that they will fail to rescue us (and our good faith and credit) from future fiscal-rescue attempts. And the only way they can rescue interest rates is by sacrificing the dollar.
Read Jerry Bowyer’s article, CBO: Our New Debt Projections Are Already Obsolete.
On today’s program we also answer your questions:
I’m selling my house and will be making a profit. I was told that if you’re getting married that there’s an exemption for having to pay capital gains. Is this true? But I’m not getting married in the same fiscal year that I’ll be selling the house.
My credit score just fell 100 points! I’m confused about how my score works as it relates to a card’s inactivity while maintaining balances on others even after having paid one off.
Remember, you can call in to ask your questions most days at (800) 525-7000 or email them [email protected]. Also, visit our website atMoneyWise.orgwhere you can connect with a MoneyWise Coach, purchase books, and even download free, helpful resources like the free MoneyWise app.
Like and Follow us on Facebook atMoneyWise Mediafor videos and the very latest discussion!Remember that it’s your prayerful and financial support that keeps MoneyWise on the air. Help us continue this outreach by clicking the Donate tab on our website or in our app.
To support this ministry financially, visit: https://www.oneplace.com/donate/1085/29