A surprise 23,000 drop in July payrolls and a fall in unemployment to 4.1% have gutted expectations for a September Fed rate hike, sending Treasury yields and hold-rate odds sharply lower. Finance TL;DR Daily breaks down the jobs shock and the bond market's reaction.

In this episode:

• U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in July, dimming prospects for a September Fed rate hike — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/jobs-report-july-2026.html

• Treasury yields tumble as weak jobs data forces Fed rate-hike rethink — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/treasury-yields-steady-ahead-of-key-nonfarm-payrolls-jobless-data.html

Fed Governor Lisa Cook says she's prepared to back a rate hike over inflation, even as fresh productivity data complicates the picture. Plus, 30-year Treasury yields hit levels not seen since 2007, and Apollo's $7.7 billion EasyJet buyout heads toward a Friday deadline.

In this episode:

• Fed Governor Cook says she's 'prepared to act' on rate hike to address inflation — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/fed-governor-cook-says-shes-prepared-to-act-on-rate-hike-to-address-inflation.html

• US labor market stable; worker productivity accelerates in second quarter — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxPTTJpcnp3M3Zob2xWSjlneXRmc25pWUNJZms0SWxPVzhXV1dLX1RRaFp5VHBQZTRDaFA4TGhWSE5STWx4YVBZN1dMcDlRYTNfbXhORk9PYldJaTREcWotSnkzZVAwanVEQ2V5SHdrTVRSZDgzbV9DNW5DbGhkdW8xeXhsdWM4YTQtLS1TNUxDV2dWUnQ5Vk9BaUY1eDdiSzBHc054ZTdVRXFaNW80Z01BQ1BKS3E?oc=5

• Treasury yields edge higher as traders sharpen focus on rates — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiAFBVV95cUxPaENUZWFKOFQ2d1A3YVVqeUNCSE9DeEtFY0dlZzN6ampHRFAwWjlSRzVSNDhmdFNiWHpub1A0Z05sOC05RGNrV3hQWDZ0RGs1Ry1iTXFFZ2hSVGhrZmpRTk5kVnNrdFBsbWpxUDhhZUF1bHc1TFMzLW9XMTlUUWphU2VveUJqb0Qy0gGOAUFVX3lxTE0wX0Z2TUhCdndhT1FucHpVWjF2V29RcXk4MWFIY3lqdXZCMEdHakZod00xeDJCOGxSMVJVT0laVkI2dS0yU3JhczQ5ekNvaE5JckdXZk9lQ0lHY09tbEdKNDdkOG1OeEloS2h0c1Nzb29JeE5Dc19NSDJ4WElJMDRFeDZmejJwN25tVkw3U1E?oc=5

• Apollo agrees to buy UK airline EasyJet in $7.7 billion deal as Castlelake withdraws — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/06/easyjet-apollo-castlelake-private-equity-budget-airline.html

Fed dissenter Neel Kashkari pushes for a September rate hike even as ADP shows private hiring slowing sharply; the Treasury's $100 billion in 'Liberation Day' tariff refunds mostly flow to corporations, not consumers; and Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug boom sends earnings and guidance sharply higher.

In this episode:

• Fed's Kashkari says 'now is the time to start slowly moving' rates up — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/feds-kashkari-says-now-is-the-time-to-start-slowly-moving-rates-up.html

• Private companies added just 44,000 workers in July, well below expectations — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/private-companies-added-just-44000-workers-in-july-below-expectations-adp-reports.html

• Trump administration refunds $100 billion in 'liberation day' tariffs — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/trump-tariffs-refunds-ieepa-lawsuit.html

• Eli Lilly stock surges on strong earnings, raises outlook as weight-loss drug sales boom — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/eli-lilly-lly-earnings-q2-2026.html

ISM manufacturing hits a four-year high but stokes inflation fears, Palantir jumps 27% on blockbuster AI-driven earnings, Philly Fed's Anna Paulson signals a hawkish pause, and Caterpillar's record quarter shows the AI buildout lifting heavy industry too.

In this episode:

• US manufacturing activity hits more than four-year high, but inflation worries intensify — https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/us-manufacturing-activity-jumps-more-140731868.html

• Palantir stock soars 27% on 'otherworldly' commercial revenue growth — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/palantir-2q-earnings-ai-sovereign-tools.html

• Philadelphia Fed President Paulson content with rates at current level, but keeping an 'open mind' — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/philadelphia-fed-president-paulson-content-with-current-rates-but-keeping-an-open-mind.html

• Caterpillar stock boosts Dow as data-center demand drives record revenue — https://www.marketwatch.com/story/caterpillar-is-killing-it-and-data-center-demand-is-driving-record-revenue-161b84d1?mod=mw_rss_topstories

The US and Japan launch a rare joint intervention to prop up the yen, the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50-3.75%, Amazon crosses a $3 trillion market cap on AWS strength, oil prices tumble after Trump calls off an Iran strike, and Visa buys fraud-detection firm BioCatch for $2.4 billion.

In this episode:

• U.S. and Japan conduct first joint yen intervention since 1998 to support the currency — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/03/japan-yen-intervention-us-treasurys-euros-.html

• Fed holds interest rates steady, citing recent inflation moderation — https://abcnews.com

• Amazon tops $3 trillion market cap as stock continues post-earnings surge — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/03/amazon-amzn-stock-market-cap-earnings.html

• Oil prices tumble after Trump calls off attack on Iran and signals talks will resume — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/03/oil-prices-today-wti-brent-hormuz-trump-iran.html

• Visa to buy cybersecurity firm BioCatch for $2.4 billion amid surge in AI-powered scams — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/03/visa-buys-biocatch-fraud-detection.html

Three Fed presidents publicly break ranks to demand a rate hike as inflation stays hot, Apple suffers its worst post-earnings drop in 13 years on chip shortages, Iran-linked tanker attacks send oil higher, Amazon passes along $600 million in tariff refunds, and Coinbase posts a $359 million quarterly loss.

In this episode:

• Fed officials who voted to hike rates say action is needed now against inflation — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/fed-officials-who-voted-to-hike-rates-say-action-is-needed-now-against-inflation.html

• Apple heads for $460 billion wipeout with its stock seeing worst post-earnings drop in 13 years — https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-heads-for-460-billion-wipeout-with-its-stock-seeing-worst-post-earnings-drop-in-13-years-a438d16c?mod=mw_rss_topstories

• Oil prices rise after Iran says it attacked two tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-hormuz-trump-iran-.html

• Amazon says it got $600 million in Trump tariff refunds and will pass return along to some customers — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/amazon-trump-tariff-refunds.html

• Coinbase Q2 2026 earnings miss: $359 million net loss — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/coinbase-q2-2026-earnings-miss-144916215.html

The Fed holds rates but three officials dissent for a hike, sending the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest since 2007. Plus, Q2 GDP slows to 1.5% even as consumers keep spending, and Big Tech earnings split the AI trade as Meta drops 9% while Microsoft jumps 15%.

In this episode:

• Fed holds rates steady but with three dissents, signaling 'hawkish hold' — https://apnews.com/article/economy-inflation-spending-growth-consumers-growth-jobs-caf3b24d92688568f9c4f95725c87e55

• U.S. economy slows to 1.5% growth rate in Q2 as consumers keep spending — https://apnews.com/article/economy-inflation-spending-growth-consumers-growth-jobs-caf3b24d92688568f9c4f95725c87e55

• Bond market sends 30-year Treasury yield to 19-year high after Fed decision — https://www.ndtvprofit.com/economy/bond-rout-sends-warning-to-feds-kevin-warsh-that-tough-talk-is-not-enough-11840918

• Meta tanks 9% while Microsoft jumps 15% as AI trade splits after earnings — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/microsoft-msft-meta-stock-today-earnings.html

The Fed heads into a high-stakes rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh as inflation lingers above target, oil prices jump more than 6% after Trump vows retaliation against Iran following strikes in Iraq, and Procter & Gamble's revenue miss shows value-conscious shoppers are trading down.

In this episode:

• Federal Reserve decision looms with rates expected to hold, but a hike remains possible — [reuters.com](https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxPMWE0UWlwemdYNE5CaEZPSVBqZVNuSmlVSmIxWHV6R1hXa3lua1RReGpYaTEtZGttNzZoTU1XT3VGbjZWUmxFSWxnN21mMGlHVW1fazREOXdRZVk1ek9ya1JVMVNWM0NoVEVzRHY2bWJSYy1JRUtrNElLb3BPSjJzNm9wWmpmYTU3OXRIQ0E1dG82TkU2emF4QVoxTEJJU01ydzF5cHZHRVlnbGp6T3JESUtzV0ZZYjZUc2c)

• Oil prices jump more than 6% after Trump vows retaliation against Iran — [marketwatch.com](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-rise-after-u-s-and-saudi-arabia-attack-iran-backed-militias-in-iraq-f0f409ea?mod=mw_rss_topstories)

• Procter & Gamble revenue misses estimates as volume remains flat — [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/procter-gamble-pg-q4-2026-earnings.html)

A $1 trillion semiconductor sell-off led by Korea's Kospi and Nvidia's slide headlines a day where the Fed's rate decision and Trump's pressure on Chair Warsh loom large, Boeing rallies despite a big loss, Coca-Cola raises guidance, and Apple launches an iPhone leasing plan with Klarna.

In this episode:

• Markets brace for Fed decision amid Trump's calls for lower rates and political pressure — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/warsh-fed-rate-decision-trump-powell-analysis.html

• Boeing posts wider-than-expected loss, but shares rally on strong revenue and backlog — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/boeing-ba-2q-2026-earnings.html

• Tech stocks tumble as chip sell-off deepens, AI worries mount ahead of earnings — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipgFBVV95cUxPNkhJQS14Y3d3QkMxeG5XZmR3cldUel9CSk9pdDZrSDFkc0gydEgxSXQ1d0xzTi1OR29xVWEwUjJtV1k4V1p3WlZJeUZCbnB2MzJOYjBHRExWTmVobWlibGFqajlUcWx5emx2M01vYmNwcHlDM2FvYjRwU3o2M0szNVpyM3JwakJyRkZReUMyVk5GUklTWWczOXdFSUcwNkh1clFNVWJn?oc=5

• Coca-Cola beats earnings and hikes full-year outlook as demand for drinks climbs — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/coca-cola-ko-q2-2026-earnings.html

• Apple launches new US iPhone leasing program with Klarna for $17.99/month — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/apple-plans-to-lease-iphones-for-17point99-a-month-through-klarna-deal.html

Surging oil prices driving up expectations for a September Fed rate hike overshadow solid corporate earnings. Today, we cover Intel's record revenue growth, Verizon's guidance upgrade, and Oracle's massive new Pentagon contract.

In this episode:

• Odds of Federal Reserve rate hike surge as oil prices rip higher - CNBC — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/fed-interest-rate-odds-oil-jobless-claims.html

• Intel rides AI boom to fastest revenue growth in almost 15 years, but shares sink - CNBC — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/intel-intc-earnings-report-q2-2026.html

• Treasury yields retreat, 10-year hovers around January 2025 highs - CNBC — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/treasury-yields-bonds-us-debt.html

• Verizon shares rise as earnings beat and guidance boost offset revenue miss - Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/verizon-shares-rise-earnings-beat-142700574.html

• Oracle signs 10-year software contract with Pentagon worth up to $7 billion - CNBC — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/oracle-wins-10-year-pentagon-software-contract-worth-up-to-7-billion.html