One time while driving my family in the car we were going a long distance. It was about a 12 hour drive. We were about 11 1/2 hours into the drive and from the back of the car our youngest child spoke up and said, "Dad, do you know where you are going?" To her it seemed like we were driving aimlessly around for hours and she was letting me know she couldn't take it any more.
I tried to convince her that I knew the direction and where we were going.
When I started trading options I was focusing on direction, but found it to be a struggle.
I then started trading without direction; I was trading theta. If you are not familiar with what that means, it means you sell the options and take the money from the sell, hoping that the price will never hit your option strike, or price area.
You can actually make some money; however, if your option strike price gets hit then the loss can be much larger than many months of profits.
Here's how it works. You sell the option way out away from the current price in an area where you think the price cannot come in a reasonable time. You want the option to expire and you pocket the money.
However, one time when I was trading options that way, with 10 minutes left before the market closed on a Friday, and the option was about to expire, the price came way up into my area and suddenly it looked like I was going to lose thousands of dollars.
I jumped out of my chair and started bouncing around the room. I was watching the clock like I could hardly wait to be let out of a containment cell. What was going to happen?
I learned early on from one of my mentors to BUY the probable and SELL the IMPROBABLE. Which is what I had done. But the cost of being wrong was so high.
It was now 30 seconds before the market was going to close and I was going to lose thousands of dollars.
20 seconds 15 10 5...and then suddenly the price dropped very fast and came below my option strike level and I earned my $200 while risking thousands of dollars to get that.
I LOVE to sell options...however...it was a very risky trade at that moment.
After my heart slowed down I committed myself to working on picking direction and to focus on risk management.
Ringing in my ears was the comment from my daughter..."Dad, do you know where you are going".
It is a challenge to pick the right direction...do we really know where the market it is going.
Nope.
But, what we do know is how to invest and trade in highly probable locations with controlled risk.
It is about recognizing when price has moved away from value...kind of like a sale at a clothing store. You know, where that $200 dress is now selling for $68...price has moved away from value.
So, get to know the markets you are trading, understand their structure and behavior, pick the direction and control your risk.
Thanks for joining, and until next time...learn to identify your direction.