…..Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq go red for November. Individual tax breaks may be temporary. Skinny repeal might blow up tax bill. First GOP tax defector. Retail sales slow. CPI Inflation rises. Earnings …Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-15-2017   DOW – 138 = 23,271 SPX – 14 = 2564 NAS – 31 = 6706 RUT – 7 = 1464 10 Y – .05 = 2.34% OIL – .41 = 55.29 GOLD – 2.20 = 1278.60   The Dow industrials are now down for the month of November. The S&P and Nasdaq are also in the red for the month.  Oil prices fell for a fourth session after data showed an increase in crude and gasoline stockpiles. The S&P 500 energy sector notched a four-day decline of 4 percent, its weakest such period in 14 months. Since the third-quarter reporting season began a month ago, companies saying earnings will beat analyst estimates have outnumbered those predicting they will miss by a ratio of 1.2-to-1. That’s the highest for any similar stretch since 2010. And the S&P 500 is down about 1.5% from its record high on Nov. 7. Even with the pullback, the S&P 500 is up a healthy 14.5 percent this year. Unlike October’s broad market rally, fewer stocks and sectors have been notching gains this month, and the latest market decline reflects that. Equity bulls says there’s more to come if you can ride out the current storm. Bears say this could be an early indicator of an even bigger drop. ...

…..Markets on cruise control along the cliff’s edge. Tax bill tries to cut individual mandate. PayGo may be a NoGo. Billionaires for higher taxes. IEA says oil will flow. Home Depot’s hurricane quarter. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-14-2017 DOW – 30 = 23,409 SPX – 5 = 2578 NAS – 19 = 6737 RUT – 3 = 1471 10 Y – .02 = 2.38% OIL – 1.42 = 55.34 GOLD + 1.90 = 1280.80   With the quarterly earnings season winding down, the market has taken a breather after its rally to record highs last week. General Electric dropped more than 5% today, marking its worst 2-day decline in 8 years, and acting as a drag on the Dow Industrials. In the past 2 days, GE is down 13%, and has given up all the gains from the past 6 years. Oil prices fell more than 2.5% and dragged oil stocks lower. Metal prices pulled back after a weaker-than-expected economic data from China sparked concerns about demand. Copper miner Freeport-McMoRan slipped 5.5%, and was the biggest loser on the materials index.   Still, it’s not like stocks are going over the cliff. Nobody is calling this the start of a correction. Investors are nervous that the divide in Washington is too wide for tax cuts to happen this year. Plus, some unexpected softness in China has led to questions about the global synchronized economic recovery thesis. And now that earnings season is over, it’s not clear what the ...

…..Tax plan mark ups followed by possible vote this week. Philly Fed forecast 2.2% GDP growth for 2017. October deficit grows. NY Fed inflation expectations up. CAPE too high. GE’s train wreck. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-13-2017   DOW + 17 = 23,439 SPX + 2 = 2584 NAS + 6 = 6757 RUT – 0.21 = 1475 10 Y un = 2.40% OIL – .04 = 56.70 GOLD + 2.70 = 1278.60   The Senate tax-writing committee is hammering out the details of its tax cut proposal. The House may vote on its own bill as soon as Thursday. The House bill would end existing federal deductions for state and local income taxes and sales taxes. It would preserve a property tax deduction, capped at $10,000. Meanwhile, a Senate plan that’s being debated this week by the Senate Finance Committee, would fully repeal each of the deductions. House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady of Texas has said the House of Representatives wouldn’t accept a bill that fully eliminates deductions for all state and local taxes as the Senate’s does. Some representatives from New York, New Jersey and California have expressed concerns.   Another complicating factor is that the tax plans are each proceeding on parallel tracks. House GOP members may not want to take a politically painful vote when the bill is on the House floor if Senate tax writers have taken some provisions off the table. Trump repeated his call for Congress to repeal the ...

…..Stocks slip for the week. Focus on tax cuts but the devil is in the details. Oil drops. Consumer sentiment up. 3 men v. 160 million. Baba’s Singles’ Day. Earnings. Veterans Day tomorrow – thank you. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-10-2017   DOW – 39 = 23,422 SPX – 2 = 2582 NAS + 0.89 = 6750 RUT + 0.25 = 1475 10 Y + .07 = 2.40% OIL – .31 = 56.86 GOLD – 8.90 = 1276.60   The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week lower for the first time in nine weeks. For the week, the Dow lost 0.5 percent and the S&P 500 slipped 0.2 percent. The Nasdaq gave up 0.2 percent for the week, snapping six weeks of weekly gains.   The yield on 10-year Treasuries punched through 2.40 percent, joining a spike in European sovereign rates. Junk bonds stabilized after 3 days of declines. Global equities hit historic highs during the week as investors were encouraged by solid earnings and synchronized global economic growth.   Wall Street remained focused on Washington and the promise of tax cuts. Republican tax writers in the House and Senate are scrambling to find ways to make the math work on their respective tax plans. The House Ways and Means Committee hammered together a bill and sent it toward the House floor for a vote promised next week, while the Senate Finance Committee revealed a proposal it intends to mark up on Monday. After ...

…..Senate unveils a tax plan. Is it passable? Junk bonds stumble. Earnings parade: DIS, M, JWN, KSS, ROKU, NVDA, DISH. It’s going to hit us. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-09-2017 DOW – 101 = 23,462 SPX – 9 = 2584 NAS – 39 = 6750 RUT – 7 = 1473 10 Y + .01 = 2.33% OIL + .28 = 57.09 GOLD + 3.60 = 1285.40 The Senate version of the Republican tax plan was supposed to be unveiled today. Morning came and went. No plan. Lunch passed without a plan. This afternoon, the Senate released an outline of their tax plan. It looks like the Senate tax cut plan would delay until 2019 a reduction in the corporate tax rate and fully repeal the federal income tax deduction for state and local taxes, two key differences with a House tax plan. The Senate plan, like the House version, would cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent, but would delay this by one year until 2019; it also grants a more generous system of deductions for smaller businesses. The House bill would repeal a deduction on federal income tax that Americans can now take for state and local income and sales taxes, but keep the deduction for business owners. It would cap the deduction for state and local property tax paid at $10,000. The Senate plan would repeal the state and local tax (SALT) deduction entirely – that one issue could be a big ...

…..Dow, S&P and Nasdaq at record highs. One year after the election. Apple hits $900 billion. Dems win big in local elections. Corporate tax cuts face phase-in after CBO finds deficit too high. Saudi purge continues. Earnings news continues. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-08-2017 DOW + 6 = 23,563 SPX + 3 = 2594 NAS + 21 = 6789 RUT + 2 = 1481 10 Y + .02 = 2.33% OIL – .38 = 56.82 GOLD + 6.00 = 1281.80   The Dow Industrial Average carved out yet another record high close – not a big gain at all but any gain adds to the record. The S&P 500 also closed at a record high. And a record high for the Nasdaq – All three at records. In hockey parlance that’s a hat trick; bowlers might call it a turkey.   On the one-year anniversary of Trump’s win in the presidential race, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is showing its biggest post-Election Day gain in more than 70 years. The Dow has advanced 28.50% since Nov. 8, 2016. That represents its best performance after a White House contest since 1945, when the blue-chip gauge was up 29.83% in a year following the election of Franklin D. Roosevelt. The S&P 500 is up 21% over the past 12 months. Trump has taken full credit for the equities rally, offering this assessment this week: “The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me.”   There may have been a ...

…..ISM manufacturing reverts to strong. Construction spending up. Fed FOMC stands pat. Jay Powell likely pick. GOP tax plan delayed due to math. Facebook beats. Tesla posts big loss. Wells Fargo, again. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-01-2017   DOW + 46 = 23,424 SPX + 5 = 2580 NAS – 15 = 6712 RUT – 9 = 1492 10 Y – .01 = 2.36% OIL – .04 = 54.34 GOLD + 3.90 = 1275.30   The Dow and the S&P closed near records. The Nasdaq slipped from a record high close yesterday.   The ISM manufacturing index fell to 58.7% in October, a month after hitting a 13-year high of 60.8%. Sixteen of the 18 industries tracked by ISM reported growth. After a flurry of activity in the wake of the hurricanes, we seem to be returning to more normal, yet still strong manufacturing growth.   Construction spending rose in September, led by a surge in government spending. Spending ran at a seasonally adjusted annual $1.22 billion rate. Spending increased 0.3% during the month, and stood 2% higher than a year ago. For the second month in a row, public works projects drove the spending increase. Public-sector outlays were 2.6% higher than in August, while private-sector spending was 0.4% lower. Compared to a year ago, however, the pace of total public construction spending is 1.6% lower, while overall private spending is 3.1% higher.   The Federal Reserve left a key interest rate unchanged in November but called the ...

…..Nasdaq record high close. Big 5 tech stocks rule. Valuations high. Consumer confidence up. Employment costs up. Housing formation down. Home prices up. Fed meets to do nothing. Waiting on tax text, which might be the scariest thing this week. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-31-2017   DOW + 28 = 23,377 SPX + 2 = 2575 NAS + 28 = 6727 RUT + 11 = 1502 10 Y  unchanged 2.38% OIL + .49 = 54.64 GOLD – 5.60 = 1271.40   The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high for the 62nd time this year, matching its longest such streak since 1980. The Nasdaq gained 3.6% in October. The Dow Industrial Average was up 4.3% for the month. And the S&P 500 posted a 2.2% monthly gain. October was the biggest monthly percentage gain for the 3 major indexes since February, and the seventh straight positive month for both the Dow and the S&P, while the posted its fourth straight monthly gain. Over the past 12 months, the Dow is up 18.3%, the S&P at 16.8%, and the Nasdaq at 25.9%. For the month of October, Intel was the top performing stock among the Dow Industrials, with a 17% gain – while General Electric dropped 16%. Five stocks in the Dow posted double digit percentage gains in October: Intel, Microsoft, Wal-Mart, Caterpillar and 3M.  Oil prices have jumped about 10% for the month and are back at the highest levels since March.   But the big gainers remain ...

…..Paul Manafort and Rick Gates indicted. George Papadopoulos guilty. Just the beginning. Wall Street looks at phased-in tax cuts. Jay Powell might be next Fed head. Consumer spending jumps. Catalan secession meets harsh reality….. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-30-2017   DOW – 85 = 23,348 SPX – 9 = 2571 NAS  – 11 = 6690 RUT – 21 = 1487 10 Y – .06 = 2.37% OIL + .22 = 54.12 GOLD + 2.80 = 1277.00   Paul Manafort, the former campaign chairman for the Trump campaign, and Manafort’s former business associate Rick Gates surrendered to federal authorities this morning, part of what appeared to be the first charges in a special counsel investigation. Manafort and Gates were indicted on 12 counts, including false statements to the government, failing to register as a foreign agent, money laundering, failing to report foreign income, and conspiracy against the United States. Their indictment describes a conspiracy to evade taxes and launder at least $75 million of foreign income into the United States from offshore accounts. Manafort and Gates appeared in the Federal District Court in Washington and pleaded not guilty to all charges; they were released to house arrest. The indictment of Manafort and Gates makes no mention of Trump or election meddling, but the 31-page indictment essentially alleged that the president’s onetime top lieutenant was secretly a highly paid agent for pro-Russian foreign interests. Manafort has expected charges since this summer, when F.B.I. agents raided his home and prosecutors warned ...

…..Nasdaq record high. Tech rules. GDP at 3% in 3Q. The global equity markets are even better. Madrid says no to Catalan secession. CVS-Aetna v. Amazon. JC Penney fades. GE’s bad week. VW tries to come clean. Utah’s shrinking national monuments. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-27-2017   DOW + 33 = 23,434 SPX + 20 = 2581 NAS + 144 = 6701 (record) RUT + 10 = 1508 10 Y – .02 = 2.43% OIL + 1.39 = 54.03 GOLD + 7.00 = 1274.20   For the week, the Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.1%. The S&P has notched gains for seven straight weeks, its longest weekly winning streak in three years. The Russell 2000 index was down 0.1% for the week. Who needs small caps, when the big tech stocks are going crazy? For the year to date: The S&P 500 is up 342.24 points, or 15.3%. The Dow is up 3,671.59 points, or 18.6%. The Nasdaq is up 1,318.15 points, or 24.5%. The Russell 2000 is up 151.19 points, or 11.1%.   We knew this was going to be a big day for the tech sector after several companies reported strong earnings after the closing bell yesterday. The S&P technology index led the way higher, up 2.9%. The index notched its best day since March 1, 2016 and is up nearly 35% on the year versus the 15-percent gain in the S&P 500. Google-parent Alphabet gained 4.2% as its ...