….Dow, S&P and Nasdaq just keep hitting records. Trump talks tax cuts and welfare reform. Iraq squashes Kurdish independence. Madrid squashes Catalan independence. Netflix beats. Nordstrom’s won’t go private. SCOTUS to review Microsoft and AmEx. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-16-2017   DOW + 85 = 22,956 SPX + 4 = 2557 NAS + 18 = 6624 RUT + 0.02 = 1502 10 Y + .03 = 2.31% OIL + .42 = 51.87 GOLD – 8.80 = 1295.50   This year, the S&P 500 index has hit records on almost four dozen different occasions, with the single biggest drop from the latest record amounting to less than 3 percent. More than $3.2 trillion of market value has been added to U.S. equities, and volatility is at an all-time low. With the S&P already up 14 percent so far this year, investors are looking to justify the relatively high valuation of stocks through the earnings. The S&P 500 hasn’t experienced a decline of at least 3% since Nov. 7, 2016. That 237-day span registers as the second-longest period without a single-session drop of that magnitude since the 241 days from Jan. 26, 1995 to Jan. 9, 1996 – so, if we make it to next Wednesday without breaking down – this will officially become the most boring stock market of all time. The VIX index is reflecting that complacency, hovering around levels last seen in 1993. Just a reminder – the absence of risk doesn’t mean the elimination of risk. ...

….Nasdaq record high. Trump tries to undermine ACA by stopping cost-sharing reductions. Trump decertifies Iran deal. CPI up. COLA will be 2%. Retail sales up. Consumer confidence up. BAC beats. WFC misses. The last Flight 666 to HEL. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-13-2017   DOW + 30 = 22,871 SPX + 2 = 2553 NAS + 14 = 6605 RUT – 2 = 1502 10 Y – .04 = 2.28% OIL + .80 = 51.40 GOLD + 10.20 = 1304.30   The Dow Industrials hit an intraday high but then faded to close just below Wednesday record closing high. The Nasdaq closed at a record high.   For the week, the Dow was up 0.4 percent and the S&P 500 was up 0.2 percent, pushing the Dow and the S&P 500 to a fifth straight week of gains. The Nasdaq rose 0.2 percent for the week, registering a third week of gains.   Yesterday we told you that Trump had signed an executive order that makes it easier for individuals and small businesses to buy alternative types of health insurance with lower prices, fewer benefits and weaker government protections. Yes, the policies would cost less, but they are basically don’t get sick plans. Still, these junk plans sold through associations could siphon young and healthy patients out of the ACA’s exchanges and create an individual-market death spiral. But the order is vague and subject to likely legal challenges.   The administration announced late last night that Trump will ...

….Repeal replaced by plans that won’t pay. Trump tweet-attacks Puerto Rico. Death toll climbs. Worst wildfire in California history. JPM, C report earnings and prep for defaults. AT&T and cord cutters. PPI pops. Equifax again – seriously. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-12-2017   DOW – 31 = 22,841 SPX – 4 = 2550 NAS – 12 = 6591 RUT – 1 = 1505 10 Y – .02 = 2.32% OIL – .64 = 50.66 GOLD + 2.00 = 1294.10   For the past 7 years, Republicans have been trying to repeal Obamacare. This year they tried repeal and replace, skinny repeal, and basic repeal – all failed. Now Trump has signed an executive order directing federal agencies to look for ways to expand the use of association health plans, groups of small businesses that pool together to buy health insurance, and to broaden the definition of short-term insurance, which is exempt from the Affordable Care Act’s rules. The ultimate impact will depend on any new regulations written as a result of the order, but overall, the Trump administration could make cheaper plans with skimpier benefits more available. The clear intent of the executive order is to create a parallel insurance market exempt from many of the consumer protections in the Affordable Care Act.   An association health plan is a way for a group of small businesses to pool together to buy insurance, giving them more purchasing power and access to cheaper premiums. The most famous examples have ...

….Dow, S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs. Fed minutes – policymakers uncertain about a certain rate hike. JOLTS shows labor market remains strong. Tweets on the market and taxes send mixed message. Japan’s Nikkei hits record. Catalonia at the crossroads. Airline earnings. Everybody loves Carole King. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-11-2017   DOW + 42 = 22,872 SPX + 4 = 2555 NAS + 16 = 6603 RUT – 1 = 1506 10 Y un = 2.35% OIL + .39 = 51.31 GOLD + 3.60 = 1292.10   The Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all closed at record highs. With the S&P 500 up 14 percent in 2017, investors are betting on strong earnings growth across the S&P 500. Banks take the focus as JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup report results on Thursday, with analysts warning that results in the sector will largely be held back by low trading volumes compared with a year earlier. Profits at companies in the S&P 500 stock index are expected to increase by 4.6% in the July-thru-September quarter, once corporations have finished reporting results, according to earnings-tracker Thomson Reuters. That’s a sharp deceleration from the 10%-plus gains in the first two quarters of 2017.   The Federal Reserve released the minutes from their September 20th FOMC meeting. At that meeting, the Fed decided to begin quantitative tightening, by selling off some of the Treasuries and mortgage backed securities held on their balance sheet; they also left interest rates unchanged. It is widely expected the Fed ...

…Dow record close. IMF won’t get fooled again. Tax reform version 3.0. EPA fights for whale oil. P&G proxy vote fails. Walmart battles Amazon, but profits before innovation. US & South Korea military hack. Deloitte hack is getting worse. NoCal’s worst wildfire. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-10-2017 DOW + 69 = 22,830 SPX + 5 = 2550 NAS + 7 = 6587 RUT + 4 = 1508 10 Y – .02 = 2.35% OIL + 1.34 = 50.92 GOLD + 3.90 = 1288.50   The Dow and the Nasdaq opened at record high. The Dow Industrials managed to hang on for a record high close. Only two of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors are in negative territory for the year, and for broader indexes, even mild pullbacks of 3% have basically been nonexistent for months. Volatility is near record lows. Other regions have also reported strong gains: European equities are up more than 20% this year, as are emerging markets. Basically every country—as gauged by the most popular single-country exchange-traded funds—is positive on the year.   The International Monetary Fund is holding a meeting in Washington. Today a reporter asked Maurice Obstfeld, the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund: “Are financial markets being irrationally exuberant?” Obstfeld’s response? “Maybe.” And he went on to add: “To some degree, asset prices are being supported by very, very low interest rates. They are supported by growth expectations that could be disappointed. Our assessment that longer-term growth rates, particularly in advanced economies, ...

….Kicking off 3Q earnings season. IMF meets in DC. EPA to scrap Clean Power Plan. Waiting on Catlans. Google sold ads to Russian trolls. Weinstein out. Trump-Corker battle. California goes after drug prices. Vet ETF. Thaler’s crazy economics. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-09-2017   DOW – 12 = 22,761 SPX – 4 = 2544 NAS – 10 = 6579 RUT  – 6 = 1503 10 Y bond market closed OIL + .23 = 49.52 GOLD + 7.50 = 1284.60   Third quarter earnings season kicks into high gear this week with 8% of the S&P 500 slated to report results. And while companies are forecast to reveal a healthy pace of earnings growth, expectations are already very high. A solid earnings season may not be enough to move the market higher. Even though the S&P 500 Index climbs to new heights on an almost daily basis, analysts have been quietly reducing their third-quarter profit forecasts, seeing an earnings gain of just 4%, after two quarters of over 10% growth.  Analysts also see sales growth of 4% year-over-year, a slight deceleration for the second quarter’s 5% growth. Earnings estimates tend to start out muted as company executives guide analysts lower only to beat the forecasts in a phenomenon known as under-promise and over-deliver. The expected gain in earnings is less than the estimated 5 percent jump in revenue, implying negative earnings leverage. If companies can’t beat estimates, then there is no justification for near record prices. And more than ...

…..Economy “lost” 33,000 jobs in September. Blame it on the hurricanes. Unemployment rate drops to 4.2%. Wages up 0.5%. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-06-2017 DOW – 1 = 22,773 SPX – 2 = 2549 NAS + 4 = 6590 (record) RUT – 1 = 1510 10 Y + .02 = 2.37% OIL – 1.54 = 49.25 GOLD + 8.30 + 1277.10   The economy “lost” 33,000 jobs in September, marking the first month of job losses since 2010, and breaking a string of 83 consecutive months of job gains. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.4% and hit the lowest level since December 2000. The BLS said the hurricanes affected the payroll jobs number but not the unemployment rate.   Hiring and employment in September were stunted by hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The monthly jobs report is based in part on a survey of roughly 60,000 American households. One question on that survey asks whether people who normally have jobs were not at work because of bad weather. In a typical September, around 30,000 workers fall into that category; this year, that number was 1.5 million. Another nearly 3 million people reported working part-time because of the weather. The Bureau of Labor Statistics acknowledged that the storms reduced total employment but didn’t estimate the size of the effect. Still, it is nearly certain that, had it not been for the hurricanes, job growth would have been positive for a record 84th consecutive month. Hiring could even get a ...

….Stocks hit record highs again, House passes a budget. Trade gap declines. NRA does the very least. Russia hacked NSA. Catalan split on hold. California is a sanctuary state. Stranger Things will cost more. Amazon delivers. Shine on. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-05-2017   DOW + 113 = 22,775 SPX + 14 = 2552 NAS + 50 = 6585 RUT + 4 = 1512 10 Y + .02 = 2.35% OIL + .78 = 50.76 GOLD – 6.80 = 1268.80   This is the second-longest bull market ever, trailing only the 1990-2000 run during the dot-com era. Today was the eighth straight gain in the S&P 500, its longest winning streak since 2013. The S&P 500 also had its sixth straight record close, the longest such streak since 1997. The S&P 500 is on track for its ninth consecutive winning year, tying the record from 1991 through 1999. It’s been more than a year since the S&P 500 fell as much as 5 percent from a previous high, the fifth-longest period without such a correction. The Nasdaq is also on an 8-day winning streak. The Russell 2000 was just a fraction off the record high from Tuesday. The VIX, has closed below 10 for the seventh straight day, already making this the least volatile October in the history of the so-called fear gauge.   Now you might say that this just means the market is overextended and overdue for a pullback. You might say that.   The House narrowly ...

Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report

…..More records for Dow, S&P and Nasdaq. ISM soars. ADP snores. Trump’s wipe out flushes muni bonds. Catalan gone? Equifax, Richard Smith, Gus, Sam, Rich Uncle Pennybags. Getting Googley. Solar shines. Louis Vitton parody. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-04-2017   DOW + 19 = 22,661 SPX + 3 = 2537 NAS + 2 = 6534 RUT – 4 = 1507 10 y un= 2.33% OIL – .52 = 49.90 GOLD + 3.50 = 1275.60 The Institute for Supply Management’s index of service-oriented companies  jumped to a 12-year high of 59.8% in September from 55.3%. The last time the index was higher was in August 2005. Numbers over 50% are viewed as positive for the economy and anything over 55% is considered exceptional.   ADP reports private-sector employment slowed in September as firms added 135,000 jobs. The ADP data, produced in conjunction with Moody’s Analytics, may be more important than usual this month as it should be much less affected by hurricanes than the government data. Workers are included in ADP payrolls even if they are not paid due to bad weather. Still, Moody’s Analytics’ Chief Economist Mark Zandi said hurricanes Harvey and Irma cut job gains by 50,000-60,000 jobs, mainly by forcing smaller “mom-and-pop” retailers to close. Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report will be a little crazy, with estimates all over the place due to the hurricanes. The number I’m hearing is 100,000 jobs, which would be very weak, but not enough to change the Fed’s outlook since it will ...