…..Sen. McCain says no to repeal and replace. Next up, tax reform, unless the world ends tomorrow. Nafta negotiations continue. Sprint-TMobile. Apple falls. FAANG competition. Uber out of London. Voting systems hacked. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-22-2017 DOW – 9 = 22,349 SPX + 1 = 2502 NAS + 4 = 6426 RUT + 6 = 1450 10 Y – .02 = 2.26% OIL + .11 = 50.66 GOLD + 6.50 = 1298.10   Is that true? Is it possible that the Dow Industrial Average actually went down for 2 consecutive sessions? It has been about a month since we have had back to back loses on the Dow. For the week, the Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%.   Sen. John McCain announced today in a statement that he cannot “in good conscience” vote for the GOP’s latest plan to overhaul Obamacare, likely ending Republicans’ latest effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. McCain wrote: “I believe we could do better working together, Republicans and Democrats, and have not yet really tried. Nor could I support it without knowing how much it will cost, how it will (affect) insurance premiums, and how many people will be helped or hurt by it. Without a full CBO score, which won’t be available by the end of the month, we won’t have reliable answers to any of those questions.” McCain’s “no” vote means it is likely Republicans won’t be able to repeal ...

…..Stock dip. Household wealth rises, for some. Maria may wipe out PR bondholders. SEC hacked. S& P downgrades China, China agrees to impose sanctions on North Korea. Everybody hates the Graham-Cassidy health bill. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-21-2017   DOW – 53 = 22,359 SPX – 7 = 2500 NAS – 33 = 6422 RUT – 1 = 1444 10 Y un = 2.28% OIL + .02 = 50.71 GOLD – 9.90 = 1291.60   We knew the record highs on Wall Street wouldn’t last and today, finally, we saw a dip. Not enough to change the trend, not yet anyway. It’s been a good run. The net worth of households climbed by $1.7 trillion in the second quarter. The Federal Reserve said that the net worth of households and nonprofits rose by 1.7%, to $96.2 trillion, as the value of equities rose by $1.1 trillion and the value of real estate rose by about $600 billion. Those gains aren’t distributed evenly. American households’ total wealth is about $96 trillion. That’s more than three-quarters of a million dollars for every American household. But roughly 50% of households have zero or negative wealth.  So the headline numbers don’t tell the full story. An earlier report from the Federal Reserve said that less than half of all families hold stocks. Meanwhile, household debt grew at a 3.7% rate, again driven by student and auto loans. Mortgage debt excluding charge-offs rose 2.8%. State and local government debt meanwhile contracted by 1%, the second contraction ...

…..Dow record high close. Maria hits Puerto Rico. Earthquake in Mexico. The stock market is calm, too calm. The Fed holds rates steady for now but begins the Great Unwind. The mystery? Will it work? Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-20-2017   DOW + 41 = 22,412 SPX + 1 = 2508 NAS – 5 = 6456 RUT + 5 = 1445 10 Y + .03 = 2.28% OIL + .81 = 50.29 GOLD – 10.20 = 1301.50   Dow and S&P hit record highs, again.   We start today with a couple of natural disasters. This morning Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico as a Category 4, but with wind gusts up to 190 MPH. There is serious damage, still being sorted out. Communications are down, power to the island is gone – the entire electric grid shredded – a total blackout. Buildings damaged and widespread flooding. People seeking help were told by authorities that they would have to sit tight until conditions improved. So far, there have been no reports of deaths in Puerto Rico, though there have been several reports in other parts of the Caribbean, including on the French island of Guadeloupe. Before striking Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria’s eye clipped the edge of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some 3,200 federal government staffers, National Guardsmen and other emergency personnel overseen by the Federal Emergency Management Agency were already in Puerto Rico, many of them dealing with the Irma response and recovery, when Maria approached.   Maria could worsen the ...

….Dow, S&P and Nasdaq hit records. Waiting on the Fed. Trump’s first UN speech. Obamacare on the block again. Tax reform would add $1.5 trillion to deficit. Did Wells Fargo beat the rap? Equifax sinks lower. Hurricane Maria to PR. Housing starts slip. And more Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-19-2017   DOW + 39 = 22,370 SPX + 2 = 2506 NAS + 6 = 6461 RUT – 0.68 = 1440 10 Y + .01 = 2.24% OIL – .06 = 49.85 GOLD + 3.60 = 1311.70 The fun never stops. The Dow hit another record high close. The S&P 500 hit another record high close. The Nasdaq Composite hit a record high close. For the Dow Industrial average, this is the sixth record high. The S&P has a streak of 3 record highs.   The Fed will wrap up its two-day meeting tomorrow and release an announcement on monetary policy at 2:00 p.m. Eastern – 11:00 a.m. in Arizona. Although we don’t see any surprise rate increase this month, the betting at the Chicago Merc is for a 57% likelihood of a rate increase at the December meeting. There’s no meeting in November, and after December, the next planned Fed get-together is March. And Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s term expires in February, so December seems like the time to increase rates a quarter point. At the current meeting, traders are expecting talk of downsizing the Fed’s $4.5 trillion bond portfolio. The Fed has outlined its plan and will ...

…..Dow and S&P 500 hit records again. Waiting on the Fed to reverse QE. Northrop Grumman buys Orbital. Hurricane Maria eyes Puerta Rico. Obamacare repeal zombies. Justice Dept. investigates insider trading at Equifax. Bad student loans. Toys R Us R BK. Dimon’s bitcoin con. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-18-2017 DOW + 63 = 22,331 (record) SPX + 3 = 2503 (record) NAS + 6 = 6454 RUT + 9 = 1441 10 Y + .03 = 2.23% OIL + .05 = 49.94 GOLD – 12.10 = 1308.10   The Dow and the S&P 500 hit record highs. The Dow has posted gains for 7 consecutive sessions and 5 consecutive record high closes. The was the 40th record high for the Dow this year. The S&P 500 topped 2500 Friday and held that milestone level today. At the start of the year, bullish analysts were anticipating S&P 2500 by the end of the year, so take the next 3 months off, go home and relax.   Assuming nothing explodes, the big economic event this week will be the Fed FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to begin Quantitative Tightening by beginning to sell off some of its $4.5 trillion dollar in Treasuries and mortgage backed securities. On Wednesday, the Fed will wrap up its 2-day meeting on monetary policy and likely announce that it will start selling in October – just a little bit, at first. You’ll hardly notice – they say – or at least they hope you ...

Sinclair Noe interviews Steve Slavin, author of The Great American Economy: How Inefficiency Broke It and What We Can Do to Fix It

….Dow and S&P 500 hit record highs. Retail sales slip. Industrial production down. Oracle disappoints. Equifax continues to disappoint and outrage. Dangerous airline seats. Goodbye, Yellow Pages. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-15-2017   DOW + 64 = 22,268 SPX + 4 = 2500 NAS + 19 = 6448 RUT + 6 = 1431 10 Y +0.005 = 2.20% OIL – .06 = 49.83 GOLD – 9.80 = 1320.20   The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed above 2,500 for the first time. The S&P is up 12% since the start of the year. The Dow Industrials posted their fourth consecutive record high close. The Nasdaq hit an intraday high but trended down to miss a record close. The Dow gained 2.2% for the week, the best weekly gain since December 9. The S&P was up 1.5% for the week. The Nasdaq registered a weekly advance of 1.4%.   Exactly nine years ago, on September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers became the largest bankruptcy in US history.   For the second time in less than a month, Pyongyang has fired a ballistic missile that flew over Japan, prompting the UN Security Council to call an emergency meeting for today. Arms race? South Korea responded by conducting live fire drills that mimicked attacking Pyongyang’s launch site, and completed its own ballistic missile test into the sea.  Wall Street seems inured.   Prime Minister Theresa May announced the U.K. terror threat level has been raised to critical, its highest level, as police hunt ...

….Dow record again. Tax reform details – not now. DACA deal or not. Oil pushes against resistance. CPI shows inflation – really. AZ unemployment dips with government jobs added. Motel 6 – they’ll shine a light on you. Equifax outrage. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-14-2017   DOW + 45 = 22,203 SPX – 2 = 2495 NAS – 31 = 6429 RUT – 1 = 1425 10 Y + .01 = 2.20% OIL + .44 = 49.74 GOLD + 6.50 = 1330.00   The Dow Industrial average hit another record high close – 3 in a row, and the fifth consecutive session of gains in the Dow. And a tip of the hat to Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research for describing this bull market as “Seinfeld market,” referring to the TV show that was “mostly about nothing.” “During every episode, investors are watching for something to happen. When nothing happens, especially nothing bad, investors are bemused and show their appreciation by throwing more money at the bull.”   This has been a remarkably easy time to be a bull. September is set to be the 11th straight month in which the S&P 500 has either risen, or has fallen by less than 0.1 percent. If stocks continue to act well in the second half of the month, that will make this the longest such streak for stocks in 58 years. Going back to 1928, the S&P has only seen four prior streaks in which the index avoided posting ...

…..Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs again. Third strongest and second longest bull market. Looking for a tax reform plan. Healthcare for none vs. Medicare for all. PPI jumps due to oil. Irma strikes a nursing home. Equifax apology falls flat. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-13-2017 DOW + 39 = 22,158 SPX + 1 = 2498 NAS + 5 = 6460 RUT + 2 = 1426 10 Y + .02 = 2.19% OIL + 1.16 = 49.39 GOLD – 8.90 = 1323.50   Stocks closed near session highs. Most of the day the S&P and Nasdaq traded in negative territory, while the Dow Industrials flipped from positive to negative in a fairly tight range. And the S&P 500 is now pushing 2500. That seems pretty high; some might say overvalued. Although the dollar index is up for the past 3 days, since the start of the year, the Dollar Index is down about 11%, so from an international investors view, investing in the S&P 500 has been a losing proposition. In real numbers, stocks are rising, which is what matters most. Going back to the lows of 2009, the S&P 500 is now up 269%, surpassing the 266% advance notched during the 1949 to 1956 bull market, and that means the current bull market is the third strongest in US history. At 8 1/2 years, the bull market is already the second longest ever, trailing only the 1990-2000 run during the dot-com era. If you look ...

…Dow, S&P 500 ad Nasdaq hit record highs. JOLTS shows tight labor market. Median household income hits 17 year high, sort of. Home prices climb. Florida is powerless. Apple unveils X. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-12-2017   DOW + 61 = 22,118.86 SPX + 8 = 2496 NAS + 22 = 6454 RUT + 8 = 1423 10 Y + .05 = 2.17% OIL + .07 = 48.30 GOLD + 4.40 = 1332.40   The last time the Dow hit a record high was August 7 at 22,118.42. Since then, the market has had a few startling declines. And yes, stocks are expensive at these levels, and you have to think the market might be susceptible to Fed tightening, or some sort of exogenous event – but today, the world to not explode, so it’s all good – until it isn’t.   The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released by the Labor Department showed the labor market continued to tighten even as job openings rose to a record high in July. Skilled labor and experienced workers are in short supply. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased by 54,000 to a seasonally adjusted 6.2 million. The highest level in 17 years. Job openings have now been above 6 million for two straight months. Hiring increased 69,000 to 5.5 million in July, lifting the hiring rate to a near 1-1/2-year high of 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent in June. About 3.2 million Americans voluntarily quit ...